The Climate Impacts of High-Speed Rail and Air Transportation: A Global Comparative Analysis by Regina Ruby Lee Clewlow B.S. Computer Science, Cornell University (2001) M.Eng. Civil and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University (2002) Submitted to the Engineering Systems Division in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at the MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY September 2012 © Regina R. L. Clewlow All rights reserved The author hereby grants to MIT permission to reproduce and to distribute publicly paper and electronic copies of this thesis document in whole or in part in any medium now known or hereafter created. Signature of Author ............................................................................................................................ Engineering Systems Division August 17, 2012 Certified by ........................................................................................................................................ Joseph M. Sussman JR East Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Engineering Systems Thesis Supervisor Certified by ........................................................................................................................................ Hamsa Balakrishnan Assistant Professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics and Engineering Systems Certified by ........................................................................................................................................ Mort D. Webster Assistant Professor of Engineering Systems Accepted by ....................................................................................................................................... Olivier L. de Weck Associate Professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics and Engineering Systems Chair, Engineering Systems Division Education Committee The Climate Impacts of High-Speed Rail and Air Transportation: A Global Comparative Analysis by Regina Ruby Lee Clewlow Submitted to the Engineering Systems Division on August 17, 2012 in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy ABSTRACT Growing concerns about the energy use and climate impacts of the transportation sector have prompted policymakers to consider a variety of options to meet the future mobility needs of the world’s population, while simultaneously addressing the impact of these systems on our environment. This dissertation focuses on air transportation and high-speed rail (or “high-speed transportation”), a sector for which demand is projected to grow substantially, and for which infrastructure and vehicle investment decisions are costly and long-lived. This research examines high-speed rail (HSR) and aviation systems in three regions to explore: 1) the historical context of high-speed rail and aviation demand; 2) potential policies that may shape HSR and aviation system demand and their environmental impacts in the future; and 3) individual mode choice between HSR and aviation. The goal of this work is to improve our understanding of demand for these systems and methods to examine their climate impacts. Chapters 3 and 4 provide an empirical analysis of the European experience with high- speed rail and aviation systems. First, we contribute to econometric analyses of air travel demand by examining the impact of high-speed rail on air traffic. Using origin-destination demand data as well as airport demand data for two decades, our econometric analysis shows that the introduction of high-speed rail has resulted in substantial decline in air traffic on short- haul routes, as well as domestic air traffic in nations with high-speed rail infrastructure. Those cities that have higher density experience an even larger reduction in air traffic. However, we find that over this same time period, the expansion of low-cost carriers in Europe has had an even more substantial impact on increasing total air traffic within the European aviation system. Second, we explore cooperation versus competition between high-speed rail and air transportation systems. Through case studies and travel demand analysis, we examine how air- rail connections have formed in Europe, factors that contribute to high utilization of these connections, and their impact on travel demand. We find that although capacity shifts within the air transportation system have occurred as a result of these connections, there are a number of unique factors that contribute to their success. In Chapter 5, we shift our attention to the United States to conduct an integrated analysis of transportation and climate policies. By developing a new model to examine high-speed rail and aviation demand and their environmental impacts under alternative climate and energy policies, we find that the energy and CO2 emission savings of high-speed rail increase substantially when combined with such policies. These savings are primarily due to the relative efficiency of high-speed rail systems combined with a shift towards less carbon-intensive electricity generation. The first three analyses assume that price and travel time are the dominant factors influencing intercity travel choice between high-speed rail and air transportation. In Chapter 6, we explore the potential influence of environmental attitudes on individual choices between high-speed rail and air transportation. By conducting an intercept survey in China, we find that rail passengers tend to be more concerned about the environment than those individuals likely to choose air travel. Second, we find that high-speed rail accidents do have a significant impact on future mode choice, and that safety concerns play a significant role in intercity travel choice. This dissertation concludes with an analysis of current policies that influence high-speed rail and aviation in the United States, and their long-range environmental impacts. Integrating our findings from the three regional analyses of high-speed rail and aviation, we make recommendations for future policies that shape these long-lived infrastructure systems. Given likely growth in demand for high-speed transportation in the United States and other regions, our goal is to inform future investment decisions and policies that meet these mobility needs while mitigating their energy and climate impacts. Thesis Supervisor: Dr. Joseph M. Sussman JR East Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Engineering Systems Acknowledgments First and foremost, I am grateful to Joseph Sussman, my thesis advisor and committee chair, for being an exemplary role model as an advisor, teacher, and mentor. The generosity of time that he gives students, including myself, is nothing short of exceptional. I also wish to thank my other primary advisors, Hamsa Balakrishan and Mort Webster, for their intellectual and advisory support of this endeavor. The doctoral research presented in this dissertation would not be possible without the rail, aviation system, and climate and energy expertise of these three committee members. My graduate research experience at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and the work presented here have also greatly benefited from interactions with faculty, research staff, and students from the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change and the Partnership for AiR Transportation Noise and Emissions Reduction (PARTNER). Through the Undergraduate Research Opportunity Program (UROP) at MIT, I had the opportunity to engage several undergraduate students in this research: Sara Comis, Kevin Han, Clara Liu, and Sandra Chen. I wish to thank them for their time and effort, and hope that they enjoyed their research experiences as much as I enjoyed serving as a research mentor for such bright and motivated undergraduate students. I gratefully acknowledge the financial support that has made this research possible, including the MIT Energy Initiative, the Martin Family Society of Fellows for Sustainability, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) STAR Graduate Fellowship Program, the Transportation Research Board (TRB) Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP) Graduate Research Award Program on Public-Sector Aviation Issues, the Dwight D. Eisenhower Graduate Transportation Fellowship Program, and the National Academy of Sciences. Finally, I wish to thank my family for their lifelong support, and the many friends and colleagues with which I have been blessed for their humor, advice, and encouragement. Table of Contents Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Motivation ...................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2. Research approach ......................................................................................................................... 4 1.3. Thesis outline ................................................................................................................................. 4 Chapter 2: Background ................................................................................................................... 7 2.1. A brief global overview of air transportation ................................................................................ 7 2.2. The evolution of high-speed rail .................................................................................................... 8 2.3. Modeling aviation demand ...........................................................................................................