Aviation Strategy Issue No: 111 Jan/Feb 2007 Amazing AZ he Italian government probably feels more than a little CONTENTS Trelieved that it received 11 expressions of interest in buying at least 30% of Alitalia, including such illustrious private equity Analysis names as Texas Pacific Group and Cerberus Capital Management. There were also interesting bids among the 11 - from Porcellano Castello, a consortium of 70 families from the Alitalia: Expressions Bologna region whose idea is to turn Alitalia into a 5-star luxury of interest 1 airline, and from a Roman schoolteacher who is apparently a dis- gruntled Alitalia customer. German restructuring: There was, as expected, no bid from SkyTeam partner Air France/KLM. The resignation of Jean-Cyril Spinetta, the Air • Air Berlin and dba France CEO, from the Alitalia Board has left it inquorate, and the • HLX and Hapagfly Alitalia CEO Giancarlo Cimoli is reported to be leaving as well. • LTU International The second Italian carrier, Air One, did however put in a bid, • germanwings through a vehicle called AP Holding. • Condor 2-9 The valuation of Alitalia has been widely reported as being around the €2bn mark. But could the airline possibly be worth Boeing vs. Airbus 2006 10-11 almost as much as, say, 25% of Ryanair? Its stockmarket share price, buoyed by bid speculation, indicates a value of €1.2bn. S&P on airline credit ratings Moreover, the airline's recent financial performance has deterio- 12-13 rated again - losses for 2006 are likely to be around €400m, dou- ble those of 2005. This brings Alitalia's accumulated losses since Briefing 2000 to €3bn, about 9% of turnover. The airline's net debt is about €1.2bn, plus another €1.2bn in capitalised lease commitments. Allegiant Air: Las Vegas-based The situation poses some tricky questions for private equity niche carrier investors: 14-19 • Banks considering leveraging a deal will have to take into account the existing level of debt as well as the capex that will be Databases 20-23 required to replace the ageing MD80 fleet, some €3bn; presum- ably state guarantees for loans are out of the question Airline traffic and financials • Selling off assets or downsizing will likely be fiercely resisted by the unions, management and politicians; adding to Alitalia's regu- Aircraft available lar strike-days will allow competitors, especially the LCCs, to fur- ther increase their growing share of the Italian market Regional trends • Designing a new turn-around strategy is perfectly feasible but implementing it is another matter; it appears that there are too Orders many vested interests determined to preserve the status quo at the flag-carrier and procrastinate until the government or the relevant government minister changes PUBLISHER • Bringing in an airline partner would be the most politically accept- able way to provide a catalyst for turn-around; this idea dates back to Alitalia's wooing of SAS in the late 80s, was almost consummat- Aviation Economics ed with KLM in the late 90s but ended acrimoniously, and has now James House, 1st Floor been rejected by Air France Perhaps we are being too cynical and there actually is an effec- 22/24 Corsham Street tive refinancing and restructuring strategy for Alitalia - the binding London N1 6DR bid stage of the process may unveil an unexpected solution. Tel: +44 (0) 20 7490 5215 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7490 5218 www.aviationeconomics.com e-mail: [email protected] Aviation Strategy Analysis Germany: Restructuring or just juggling? ith demand for traditional package tours valuable dba slots at Dusseldorf and Munich. Wfalling fast, German airlines that still The first joint schedule will operate from this have large amounts of charter business are summer's timetable (starting in April), with frantically trying to convert themselves into dba aircraft being used on Air Berlin routes to Aviation Strategy fully-fledged scheduled operators, usually leisure destinations during the summer dip in is published 10 times a year with a city-to-city LCC business model. But domestic business travel, with larger Air by Aviation Economics even this may not be sustainable, as Air Berlin aircraft already being used on the Berlin's acquisition of dba in 2006 has put fur- busier domestic dba routes over the winter Editor: ther pressure on the other players in season. Keith McMullan [email protected] Germany to either merge or to find a secure Following the acquisition, Munich-based parent with very deep pockets. Talks - formal dba is continuing to operate as an indepen- Contributing Editor: and informal - have been and are being held dent company according to Air Berlin, Heini Nuutinen between virtually everyone in the German although it is now being marketed as Air aviation industry. Berlin "powered by dba". dba has a fleet of 30 Sub-editor: 737 and F100 aircraft, the latter arriving after Julian Longin [email protected] Air Berlin and dba dba bought and incorporated LCC Germania Express into its operations in early 2005 Subscriptions: (although the Germania Express brand still [email protected] Air Berlin is the third-largest LCC after exists). Tel: +44 (0)20 7490 5215 easyJet and Ryanair, and the second largest The deal also gives Air Berlin access to airline in Germany, but after a troubled IPO in more than 70 corporate clients of dba, whom Copyright: May 2006 (see Aviation Strategy, May 2006) are valuable given Air Berlin's focus on the Aviation Economics the carrier cemented its position through buy- business travel market and its desire for pas- All rights reserved ing rival dba in August for a price that was in senger growth of 10%-15% per annum for the the "mid-two figure millions" [€250m], accord- next few years. That planned growth will be Aviation Economics Registered No: 2967706 ing to Joachim Hunold, CEO of Air Berlin. dba fuelled by a huge increase in the Air Berlin (England) was acquired from various shareholders fleet - it currently comprises 58 A320 family, including Intro Verwaltungsgesellschaft 737 and F100 aircraft, but there are 50 aircraft Registered Office: (59.9%) - a holding company for business- on firm order and another 42 on option, while James House, 1st Floor 22/24 Corsham St man Hans Rudolf Wohrl that bought an order for another 60 aircraft is imminent. London N1 6DR Deutsche BA from British Airways back in After previously being a loyal Boeing cus- VAT No: 701780947 2003 - and from Aton (25.1%), a company tomer, in 2004 Air Berlin decided to lessen its ISSN 1463-9254 controlled by businessman Lutz Helmig. dependence on one manufacturer by placing The opinions expressed in this publica- The acquisition was approved by an order for 70 aircraft in partnership with Niki tion do not necessarily reflect the opin- Bundeskartellamt - the German competition (in which it owns 24%), of which 15 A319s ions of the editors, publisher or contribu- tors. Every effort is made to ensure that regular - in September last year on the and 35 A320s are outstanding. Air Berlin also the information contained in this publica- tion is accurate, but no legal reponsibility grounds that there was little overlap between has options for another 40 A320s, and a deci- is accepted for any errors or omissions. the domestic network of dba (although it also sion is expected to be made on these some- The contents of this publication, either in operates some international routes and char- time this year. This order came about partly whole or in part, may not be copied, ter flights) and the scheduled European net- because Airbus was very aggressive with its stored or reproduced in any format, print- ed or electronic, without the written con- work of Air Berlin (it started low-fare city ser- pricing, but in late November 2006 Boeing sent of the publisher. vices back in 2002), and that the deal would appears to have struck back after Air Berlin provide better competition to the domination announced an intended order for 60 737- of Lufthansa 800s for delivery over 2007-2014, which at list From Air Berlin's point of view, the deal is prices are worth $5.7bn - although, inevitably, a good match, giving Air Berlin access to the German LCC will receive a substantial Jan/Feb 2007 2 Aviation Strategy Analysis Air WHAT’S HAPPENING IN GERMANY Lufthansa Berlin TUI (Tour operator) Selling its 50% Thomas Cook 49% has bought dba stake to former partner effective from Intro merging HLX and Hapagfly plus KarstadtQuelle, planning ownership of Thomsonfly, Corsair, merger with MyTravel (UK) Germanwings Arkefly, Jetairfly and TUIfly Nordic Intro has bought 60% of LTU from VBE In effect reducing ownership of (ex Swissair fund) TUIFly Condor from 50% to 25% but retains purchase option on other 75% discount (40-50%?) on that when the firm sive ordering is the difficulty it has had in leas- order is agreed. ing aircraft at anything other than very high Although the Boeing aircraft will partly rates, and so it has made a strategic decision replace the current 42-strong 737 fleet (many to own its fleet going forward, rather than of which are leased), some will be used for being at the mercy of market lease rates. But growth - yet the news of the impending order though this may be logical, the size of the was received poorly by the German stock orders also means that Air Berlin will be plac- market, with the airline's shares dropping by ing a large amount of new capacity (around 13% on the day the news was announced an extra 10% a year over the next eight (from €16.24 to just above €14.00; the share years) into a market where competition is price as at the end of January was around the fierce.