SEPTEMBER 2020 ISSUE NO. 399 State Responses to COVID-19 and Implications for International Security NEHA DEWAN ABSTRACT This brief examines state responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, taking the cases of India, Israel, Brazil, Hungary and the United States. It studies the language utilised by the government leaders in these countries and finds extensive war-time semantics. The brief explores the interrelationship of such rhetoric with the legitimisation of extreme measures by constructing an issue as an “existential threat”— a process analysts call “securitisation”, and contrasts the official narratives with actual preparedness on-ground. It explores the implications of these state actions and legislations that are being employed to support their war discourse—for instance, the heightening of surveillance measures and curbing of democratic freedoms. The analysis attempts to answer: Why have state leaders responded to a pandemic with war-time analogies and to what extent will this have implications on the international order in the aftermath of COVID-19? Attribution: Neha Dewan, “State Responses to COVID-19 and Implications for International Security,” ORF Issue Brief No. 399, September 2020, Observer Research Foundation. Observer Research Foundation (ORF) is a public policy think tank that aims to influence the formulation of policies for building a strong and prosperous India. ORF pursues these goals by providing informed analyses and in-depth research, and organising events that serve as platforms for stimulating and productive discussions. ISBN: 978-93-90159-96-3 © 2020 Observer Research Foundation. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, copied, archived, retained or transmitted through print, speech or electronic media without prior written approval from ORF. State Responses to COVID-19 and Implications for International Security INTRODUCTION saving livelihoods—administrative ethics, morals and ideologies have become more Over 25 million people across the world have important like never before. Heads of been infected with the novel coronavirus States are delivering addresses and appeals (SARS-CoV-2),1 which causes the COVID-19 replete with references to the Great Wars, disease. Already, the political consequences the Marshall Plan, the Middle Eastern of the pandemic are being felt in countries as war of 1967,5 and even the mythological diverse as the world’s military stronghold,2 “Mahabharata war”.6 These are accompanied the United States, or war-torn Yemen.3 by a call to alms, like in the case of India This brief analyses state responses to the where Prime Minister Narendra Modi called COVID-19 pandemic and ponders questions for financial contributions towards the PM- of international security and statehood in a CARES Fund, comparing the war against post-COVID-19 world. COVID-19 to any other where the nation’s “mother and sisters give away their jewellery Every day, COVID-19 brings under and the poor give away whatever that can”.7 scrutiny the most fundamental duties of Geographically distant and politically the state to its citizens. Indeed, in times divergent India, Israel, Brazil, China, the US, of crises, leaders find themselves facing and several others found resonance in each difficult and limited choices, and their other’s responses to the “war” against an decisions can often damage their electoral “invisible” enemy that has compelled them standing.4 The COVID-19 pandemic has to weave a narrative that would fit their made the greenback feeble, paralysed the people’s imaginations. global economy, re-defined what is ‘essential’ in society, fuelled ideological wars, and History is testimony to the dependency of worsened humanitarian crises. nation-states on national narratives, myths and selected pasts, though one would not As the novel virus emerging from Wuhan intuitively expect their invocation in a viral spread to the West, it caused damage to outbreak. This brief argues that the use of the morale of seemingly invincible powers. the allegory of war in a pandemic effectively Reliant only on epidemiological modelling demonstrates two political reasonings, the and whipsawed between saving lives or consequences of which will have drastic Figure 1: Fighting the invisible enemy (Source: Twitter)8 2 ORF ISSUE BRIEF No. 399 SEPTEMBER 2020 State Responses to COVID-19 and Implications for International Security implications for the post-COVID-19 world ‘enemy’, ‘battle’—and the interest order: consolidation of power; and call to generated in searches by coronavirus- nationalism. related information-seeking individuals (See Figure 2). A co-occurrence with Google WAr-tIME ANALOGIES TO news search data for the same time CONSOLIDATE POWER period can be observed, further indicating the prevalence of war terminologies The preponderance of war-time analogies in representations by news media, has entitled officeholders to respond published government statements, and with “all means necessary”, which they speeches made by state leaders. The themselves imply can be best exercised graph underpins a broader, representative through the consolidation of power. pattern substantiated by acts of narrative According to aggregated worldwide Google construction by state actors worldwide, as search data from the onset and initial this brief will elaborate. months of the pandemic, there was a spike in the utilisation of war terminology in The trend is telling, not least because relation to SARS-CoV-2, peaking in the it corresponds to a pandemic response month of March and carrying through to endowed with the extensive use of war- April 2020. The trend reflects a relation time analogies by state leadership across between the use of war terminology— the world, which this brief deconstructs corresponding to terms such as ‘war’, across various cases. The rhetoric of war Figure 2: War in the time of COVID-19. Google search traffic, worldwide, peak = 100 All web searches News searches 100 75 50 25 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr Data source: Google Trends ORF ISSUE BRIEF No. 399 SEPTEMBER 2020 3 State Responses to COVID-19 and Implications for International Security calling for “extraordinary measures” has Donald Trump declared himself a “war-time found significantly increased footing in President”13 on 18 March and soon after, public discourse over time, especially as the claimed “total authority” for the office of the challenge on public healthcare institutions president.14 intensified and political faultlines lay exposed. What President Trump is aiming for is a successful war narrative—in an Buzan, Wæver and de Wilde warn of the election year, and amidst glaring structural legitimisation of extreme measures that problems in US healthcare systems: among come from the construction of an issue as them, inaccessibility of expensive drugs, an “existential threat”— a process they unaffordable insurance, and a strong called “securitisation”.9 While the threat pharmaceutical lobby.15 On 10 August, from SARS-CoV-2 is evident, the focus is a White House ‘fact sheet’ outlining on the risk posed to societal patterns from ‘President Trump’s Historic Coronavirus the proclamation of emergency measures Response’ proclaimed that the president and the departure from rules that would had “confronted China as origin of the virus otherwise bind securitising actors or while Democrats and media cowered.”16 incumbents. As the cases examined in this Trump’s strategy—of mobilising the people brief demonstrate, the securitisation of the against an enemy, assigning blame on China, pandemic endangering the nation state could and withdrawing support from critical potentially prove not only to be futile in international infrastructure—is aimed at flattening the curve,a but fatal to democracy bolstering an electoral campaign.17 itself. In other parts of the world, state leaders The outbreak was still a ‘Public Health have similarly engaged in their own wars Emergency of International Concern’,10 against the pandemic. In South Africa when Chinese President Xi Jinping likened in March, President Cyril Ramaphosa, his country’s fight against SARS-CoV-2 to garbed in full military regalia, declared his a “people’s war”.11 Invoking the nation’s country’s war against COVID-19 and said faith in the leadership of the Communist extraordinary measures would be taken if Party of China, Xi declared Wuhan a “heroic state orders are not abided by.18 In Hungary, city”12 and said plans for China’s economic also in March, the ruling Fidesz party granted growth remained impervious. In the US, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán emergency a According to the World Health Organization, to “flatten the curve” is to reduce the rate of transmission of COVID-19. Given the limited number of healthcare resources available around the world, it is crucial to ensure that the maximum daily number of infections does not exceed the maximum capacity of a state’s healthcare infrastructure and provisions. Flattening the curve has been translated into several national strategies as it implies the introduction of policy measures to slow down the rates of infection while giving states an opportunity to increase and prepare their healthcare resources. 4 ORF ISSUE BRIEF No. 399 SEPTEMBER 2020 State Responses to COVID-19 and Implications for International Security powers to address the pandemic. Civil society wanting to optimise his initial poll ratings, organisations expressed their skepticism pushed for the holding of the elections in over the resolution, including the Director May despite the surge of the