National Drought Management Authority Tana River County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for January 2021 January EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS rought Situation & EW Phase Classification PASTORAL ALERT WORSENING Drought Phase:Normal-WORSENING MARGINAL MIXED WORSENING Biophysical Indicators NORMAL • Biophysical indicators are showing negative MIXED FARMING NORMAL STABLE trends away from the expected seasonal ranges. COUNTY NORMAL WORSENING • Below average amount of rainfall were received Biophysical Value for LTA-Monthly Normal ranges in the month of January 2021. Indicators the month Tana River Kenya % • The January Vegetation Condition Index values Tana River for Tana North-Bura sub-county are below Average rainfall 1.8 mm 65 mm 80-120 normal and indicating moderate drought. MM (%) • The Water levels in most water pans were below VCI-3month 39.56 35-50 normal at 3(25%-65%) in Pastoral and Marginal % Of water in the 3(25-65%) 5-6 mixed livelihood zones. water pan Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Production indicators: Livestock Migration Pattern normal Normal • The forage condition is fair to poor in pastoral but Livestock Body Condition 3-5 4-5 fair to good in mixed livelihoods in both quality Milk Production (Ltr /HH/Month) 3.9 3.5 and quantity. Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death • Livestock body condition is good in mixed and Access Indicators Value Normal ranges fair to good in marginal mixed and pastoral Terms of Trade (ToT) 99.4 >=50.41 livelihood zones. Milk Consumption (Ltr) 2.0 >=1.5 • Milk production remained stable at 4.0 litres across the livelihood zones. This is attributed to Water for Households-trekking 3.4 <=3.43 fair forage and pasture conditions. distance (km) Distances to grazing for livestock 8.7 <=7.86 • Livestock migrations were reported towards the (km) fall back grazing fields. Seasons production (90 kg 6,618(maize) LTA (27,687(bags) Access indicators bags)(by January 2021) 3,598(green LTA (10,810(bags) grams) • Terms of trade are currently above normal range. Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges • Distances to water sources for households currently stable compared to normal. At Risk (%) 16.8% <8.5% Utilization indicators: CSI 12.3% <=15.0 • The number of under-fives at risk of malnutrition stood at 16.8%, which is above normal at this time of the year. • Copping strategy index for households is within normal ranges but on a worsening trend. ▪ Short rains ▪ Planting/Weeding ▪ Long rains harvests ▪ Short rains harvests ▪ Long rains ▪ A long dry spell ▪ Planting/weeding ▪ Short dry spell ▪ High Calving Rate ▪ Land preparation ▪ Reduced milk ▪ Milk Yields Increase ▪ Increased HH Food Stocks yields ▪ Kidding (Sept) ▪ Increased HH Food Stocks ▪ Land preparation Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE Rainfall station data (GROUND DATA:) Ground Rainfall Distribution 300 ) 250 200 150 100 50 Rainfall amounts(mm Rainfall 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec LTA 65 11 74 171 113 77 23 28 20 196 276 140 2021 1.8 Fig .1.source: VAM-WFP An average of 1.8 mm rainfall was recorded in January coupled with increasing temperatures. This is below the LTA of 65 mm. 1.2.RAINFALL TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION In the month of January, on average 3 mm of rainfall was received in first dekad of January, 2.4 mm received in second dekad of January and 0.0 mm received in third dekad respectively. The amounts received were below normal at this time of the year. Spatial and temporal distribution was poor. The rainfall were unevenly distributed across all the three sub-counties. Most wards reported late onset of seasonal rainfall by 3rd dekad of October. Fig.2.source: Continental Africa Dekadal RFE. 1.3. TEMPERATURES 1.3.1. LAND SURFACE TEMPERATURE (LST) Fig.3.source: LST-C6 The January 2021 land surface temperature (LST) values for Tana River County increased to 40.90C by the 2ND dekad of January, which is below normal(42.20C) at this time of the year. 2.1. IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1.1. VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The January vegetation cover for Tana River County shows normal vegetation cover on average for the county across all the two sub-counties. The current trend has decreased for the three sub-counties compared to the month of January 2021.Tana North is currently experiencing moderate drought. COUNTY Sub VCI as at 31st January 2021 VCI as at 31st December 2020 County County 39.56 43.41 Decreasing trends in vegetation conditions experienced in the TANA Bura 29.17 31.54 county, all sub counties RIVER Galole 39.24 41.11 recorded a decrease in Garsen 48.59 53.05 vegetation cover. Fig.4. Source BOKU The information provided above reflects Tana North sub-county currently experiencing moderate drought, decreasing trend is observed across all the three sub-counties compared to the previous month. Fig.5.Source BOKU In January 2021 the vegetation cover for Tana River County was at 39.56, which indicates normal vegetation condition but on a worsening trend. In comparison to the previous month the current vegetation cover has decreased in quantity and quality. Fig.5.Source: NDVI-C6 The NDVI for Tana River County is currently showing decreasing trend in January 2021(0.39) which is above the LTA (0.36). This is attributed to decreasing rainfall and high temperatures received across the county during the month. 2.1.2 .Pasture The pasture condition is fair to poor in quantity and quality in Pastoral and marginal mixed livelihood zones but the pasture conditions are fair to good in mixed livelihood zones due to light showers received in the month of December 2020. The current pasture is expected to last for one month in Pastoral and marginal mixed and two months in the Mixed farming livelihood zones. Figure 6:Tana River pasture conditions 2.1.3.Browse The browse condition is fair to good in quantity and quality across all livelihood zones which is normal at this time of the year. The available browse is expected to last for more than one months in Pastoral and Marginal mixed livelihood Zones and two month in mixed farming livelihood zone. Figure 7: Tana River browse conditionscccoconditions 2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Sources The main water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihoods were Bore holes and shallow wells (27.3%),Lakes and Rivers (18.2%),Pans and Dams(9.1%).Most water pans and dams were at 25-65% of their full capacity. Most households are currently using Bore holes,Shallow wells, rivers, Pans and dams. Most open water sources in pastoral livelihood zones have not recharged. Water born diseases are on the increase in pastoral livelihood zones. The current water sources are expected to last for less than one month in pastoral livelihood zones but 2 months in Marginal mixed and Mixed Figure 8:Tana River water sources livelihood zones. 2.2.2 Household access and Utilization Household Water Distances in Tana river County - January 2021 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 in Km in 2.0 1.0 0.0 Households DistancetoSource Water Households Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec NORMAL STA WET YEARS STA DRY YEARS STA 2021 Fig.9. • The households trekking distance increased to 5.7 km. The current distance is above the Long-term average of 4.5 km. This is attributed to the end of the rainy season and the fact that the long dry period have started and most water sources have dried up. 2.2.3 Livestock access Distance from grazing area to water point in Tana river County - January 2021 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Return L Grazing DistanceL Grazing(Km.) Return 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec NORMAL STA WET YEARS STA DRY YEARS STA 2021 Fig.10. • The return distance for livestock to grazing zones increased to 10.6 km during the month. • The situation is attributed to the onset of the dry spell period during the month and most open water sources have started drying up in all livelihood zones. 3.0. PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition • The livestock body condition is fair in Pastoral and Marginal mixed livelihood zones but good in Mixed livelihood zones.The situation was as result of fair quality of pasture, browse and increasing unvailability of water more so within pastoral and marginal mixed livelihood zones which has led to livestock walking long distances.(Refer to table 4 in annex) 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases • LSD,CCPP reported in Pastoral and Marginal Mixed livelihood zones. • Trypanosomiasis,foot rot,helminthiasis,ORF,diarrhoea syndrome in Tana Delta,GarsenCentral,GarsenSouth,Kipini East and West. • No notifiable livestock diseases incidences were reported; the disease incidences were within normal seasonal ranges 3.1.3 Milk Production • The average milk produced per household remained stable at 4.0 litres compared to the previous month. This is attributed to fair conditions of pasture and browse across all livelihood zones. Distances to water points also increasing in the same livelihood zones. Household Milk Production in Tana River County - January 2021 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 Milk Production/HH/Day/Litre Milk 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec LTA WET YEAR DRY YEAR Year 2021 Figure 11 • In comparison to the long-term average of 3.6 litres; the current amount is above the long term average.