Prepared in cooperation with the National Park Service Life-History Model for Sockeye Salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) at Lake Ozette, Northwestern Washington—Users’ Guide Open-File Report 2019–1031 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Cover: Photographs and diagram showing interface of the Lake Ozette sockeye salmon life-history model, northwestern Washington. Main photograph: Makah Tribe member surveying Ozette River. Photograph by Andy Ritchie, Makah Tribe, June 24, 2004. Small photograph: Sockeye salmon spawning in Lake Ozette. Photograph by Roy Morris and Nancy Messmer, Clallam Bay Sekiu Lions Club, October 20, 2014, used with permission. Life-History Model for Sockeye Salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) at Lake Ozette, Northwestern Washington—Users’ Guide By Andrea Woodward, Mike Haggerty, and Patrick Crain Prepared in cooperation with the National Park Service Open File Report 2019–1031 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior DAVID BERNHARDT, Acting Secretary U.S. Geological Survey James F. Reilly II, Director U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2019 For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment—visit https://www.usgs.gov/ or call 1–888–ASK–USGS (1–888–275–8747). For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, visit https:/store.usgs.gov. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this information product, for the most part, is in the public domain, it also may contain copyrighted materials as noted in the text. Permission to reproduce copyrighted items must be secured from the copyright owner. Suggested citation: Woodward, A., Haggerty, M., and Crain, P., 2019, Life-history model for sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) at Lake Ozette, northwestern Washington—Users' guide: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2019-1031, 79 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20191031. ISSN 2331-1258 (online) Contents Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 1 Background ..................................................................................................................................... 2 Model Description ............................................................................................................................... 5 Overview ......................................................................................................................................... 5 Initial Conditions............................................................................................................................... 7 Output ............................................................................................................................................. 9 Adult River Migration ...................................................................................................................... 10 Summary of Model Approach ...................................................................................................... 10 Model Dashboard ................................................................................................................... 11 Lake Holding ................................................................................................................................. 12 Summary of Model Approach ...................................................................................................... 12 Model Dashboard ................................................................................................................... 12 Tributary Migration ......................................................................................................................... 13 Summary of Model Approach ...................................................................................................... 13 Model Dashboard ................................................................................................................... 13 Spawning - Beaches....................................................................................................................... 14 Summary of Model Approach ...................................................................................................... 14 Model Dashboard ................................................................................................................... 15 Spawning - Tributaries .................................................................................................................... 16 Summary of Model Approach ...................................................................................................... 16 Model Dashboard ................................................................................................................... 17 Incubation - Beaches ...................................................................................................................... 18 Summary of Model Approach ...................................................................................................... 18 Model Dashboard ................................................................................................................... 19 Incubation - Tributaries ................................................................................................................... 20 Summary of Model Approach ...................................................................................................... 20 Model Dashboard ................................................................................................................... 21 Fry Dispersal - Beaches.................................................................................................................. 22 Summary of Model Approach ...................................................................................................... 22 Model Dashboard ................................................................................................................... 22 Fry Dispersal - Tributaries ............................................................................................................... 23 Summary of Model Approach ...................................................................................................... 23 Model Dashboard ................................................................................................................... 23 Lake Rearing ................................................................................................................................. 24 Summary of Model Approach ...................................................................................................... 24 Model Dashboard ................................................................................................................... 24 River Emigration ............................................................................................................................ 25 Summary of Model Approach ...................................................................................................... 25 Model Dashboard ................................................................................................................... 25 Ocean Rearing............................................................................................................................... 26 Summary of Model Approach ...................................................................................................... 26 Model Dashboard ................................................................................................................... 26 Management-Oriented Dashboard ................................................................................................... 27 iii Model Background/Justification .......................................................................................................... 28 Adult River Migration ...................................................................................................................... 28 Limiting Factors ......................................................................................................................... 28 Description/Justification of Model Approach ................................................................................. 28 Lake Holding ................................................................................................................................. 33 Limiting Factors ......................................................................................................................... 33 Description/Justification of Model Approach ................................................................................. 33 Tributary Migration ......................................................................................................................... 34 Limiting Factors ......................................................................................................................... 34 Description/Justification of Model Approach ................................................................................. 34 Spawning - Beaches......................................................................................................................