ISSN: 2560-1601 Vol. 32, No. 1 (LT) September 2020 Lithuania political briefing: The polls indicate a change of governing coalition after the parliamentary elections Linas Eriksonas 1052 Budapest Petőfi Sándor utca 11. +36 1 5858 690 Kiadó: Kína-KKE Intézet Nonprofit Kft. [email protected] Szerkesztésért felelős személy: CHen Xin Kiadásért felelős személy: Huang Ping china-cee.eu 2017/01 The polls indicate a change of governing coalition after the parliamentary elections On 11 October Lithuania will hold the first round of the parliamentary elections. The second round will take place two weeks later, on 25 October. The increasing number of infected cases by COVID-19 coincided with the final month of the election campaign. It put restrictions on the way the political campaign has been led by the participants of the elections such as obligatory wearing of the masks when meeting the voters, preventing the effective use of face- to-face contact and door-to-door canvassing in political campaigning. Below is an overview of the political landscape within which the elections are taking place, outlining the voter preferences for and their sympathies towards the main political parties and indicating the possibilities for different yet highly unpredictable electoral outcomes. The results of the latest polls are briefly discussed, identifying the main difficulties in using the poll data for a more reliable prediction of the election results. The Lithuanian political scene is roughly divided into two halves. The governing coalition represents one half. It is led by the Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union with two minor coalition partners (Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania – Christian Families Alliance and the Social Democratic Labour Party). It is supported by parts of the multifaceted electorate which shares a common apprehension for a more redistributive type of economy and more rigid societal values based on a certain hierarchy and authority perceived as traditional. The other half of the political domain is what the opposition to the government stands for. The Conservatives (the Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats) share these grounds with two other parties in opposition namely, the Liberal Movement of the Republic of Lithuania on the political centre-right, and the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party on the centre-left. To complete the picture, three other parties that used to form government in the past are contenders to both the government and the official opposition and could move across the political divide as the situation demands: the Labour Party and the Freedom and Justice (previously Order and Justice) Party more likely towards the governing coalition, while the Freedom Party (a splinter party from the Liberal Movement) positioned closer to the Conservatives and the Liberal Movement. 1 The latest and indeed final polls conducted by three different polling organizations (“Sprinter tyrimai”, “Vilmorus” and “Baltijos tyrimai”) during the closing days of August and the first week of September have produced different results with a remarkably wide range of estimated percentages. The polls showed that the Conservatives command the support of 12,90 to 15,30 per cent of the respondents; the Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union – 13,70 to 15,10 per cent; Lithuanian Social Democratic Party – from 8,50 to 13 per cent; the Labour Party – between 6,10 to 8,30 per cent; The Liberal Movement – from 4,20 to 6 per cent. However, if one would average the results of the results from all three polls from August- September 2020 and compare them with the results from the latest poll which had been conducted in September 2016 prior to the previous elections, the results would be strikingly similar. Yet despite a largely unchanging level of political sympathies for individual parties, each parliamentary elections in Lithuania produce different results which lead to the formation of brand new coalitions. How one could explain and interpret such discrepancies between the voter preferences as attested by the poll results and the outcomes of the electoral process? Lithuania’s electoral system is a mixed-member proportional representation electoral system, where voters get two votes – one to decide the representatives for 71 single-mandate constituencies, and one for a political party or a party coalition list in a multi-constituency with 70 seats distributed proportionally. It means that political sympathies for a particular political party (as reflected in polls) directly affect the voters’ decisions only when casting their vote for the party list in a multi-mandate constituency during the first round of election. Since only a minor share of single-mandate constituencies are decided through a majority vote during the first round of the elections, the second round becomes more strategic as voters (especially those, whose supported candidates failed to get through to the second round or stand a worse chance of winning the second round altogether) have to decide whom to support if at all. Such system entrenches the bipolarity in the Lithuanian political landscape. The supporters of the political parties favouring a more redistributive economy (the Farmers and Greens Union, the Social Democratic Labour Party, the Labour Party) extend their support for each other in the second round, while the supporters of the centre-right and liberal parties with more liberal and neoliberal economic agendas (the Conservatives, the Liberal Movement) support the parties with more liberal and neoliberal agendas as their second choice. The Lithuanian Social Democratic Party provides the key to the balance of power ensuring the continuity of such a political system. Though the party supports the principles of the redistributive economy, yet when it comes to real politics it shares the opposition with the parties preferring a neoliberal model of the economy. 2 The existing governing coalition became possible largely because part of the Social Democratic Party (roughly one third) defied the decision of the party leadership to stay in opposition and split from the party to join the governing coalition in a role of the minor partner constituting later on the Social Democratic Labour Party. Hence, the scenarios of electoral outcomes depend on whether the Social Democratic Party joins the next government or remains in opposition. In case the centre-right parties (the Conservatives and the Liberal parties) win the single-mandate elections in the second round (in the previous elections the Conservatives lost the second round to the Farmers and Greens Union) with a significant margin, the Social Democrats most probably would remain in opposition. In case the opposition parties win against the parties in government by a small margin a rainbow coalition is possible. The outcome of the second round largely depends on two factors: first, the public perception of individual politicians, the political leaders standing for re-election in single- mandate constituencies or lending their support to their party candidates, and, second, the strength of the political base of a particular party, which could be to some extent measured by the share of the members of a political party from all members of the political parties having representation in the parliament. The public perception of individual political leaders could be assessed from the ranking entitled “IQ Seimas Elections Index” which was put forward in August by the magazine IQ. The expert panel assessed 9 party lists, looked at the top 10 party candidates and calculated the personal index of each politician included on the first ten positions of the electoral lists. Four aspects have been analysed when calculating the personal index: experience, visibility in media, the trust of the electorate and the individual and professional reputation. The following ranking of the analysed political parties was established: 1. Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats (scored 34 out of 40) 2. Liberal Movement of the Republic of Lithuania (28) 3. Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union (25) 4. Lithuanian Social Democratic Labour Party (23) 5. Freedom and Justice (17) 6. Lithuanian Social Democratic Party (16) 7. Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania – Christian Families Alliance (16) 8. Labour Party (11) 9. Freedom Party (10) 3 In addition, a ranking of 90 politicians was provided. The ranking showed that when considering the top 10 ranked politicians, 3 of them belong to the current governing parties while 7 to the opposition parties. It indicates that in terms of the public perception the governing parties are loosing to the opposition politicians. However, the ranking according to the assessment of the public perception of the individual politicians tells only half of a story. The second round of elections very much depends on the organisation of the electoral support at a local party level. Hence, the more numerous party organisations, the more likely that they can attract and mobilize their grass- roots. The latest available list of the officially registered parties showing the number of party members is from 7 August. It shows that the Social Democratic Party has the largest membership (16601 registered party members), followed by the Conservatives (13957 members), the Labour Party (11047 members), Freedom and Justice (10473 members) and the Liberal Movement (7065 members). Altogether, 114395 voters are the declared members of the political parties, of which 71776 (ca. 63 per cent) are the members of the political parties having political representation in the parliament. The governing coalition of three parties has at its disposition 9713 party members as opposed to 40543 party members of three opposition parties (the Conservatives, the Liberal Movement and the Social Democratic Party). However, if other two parties (Labour Party and Freedom and Justice Party) that are vying for power are taken into equation (these two parties have 21520 party members in total), the advantage of the opposition at a local party level is not as evident; 40543 members of the opposition parties against 31233 of the party members representing the governing parties and the parties which share a similar electoral base.