Final Report: Evaluation of the USAID/OFDA- USGS Volcano Disaster Assistance Program in Indonesia November 2012 This publication was produced at the request of the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared independently by International Business & Technical Consultants, Inc. (IBTCI). EVALUATION OF THE USAID/OFDA USGS VOLCANO DISASTER ASSISTANCE PROGRAM IN INDONESIA Contracted under RAN-I-00-09-00016-00, Task Order Number AID-OAA-TO-12-00038 Evaluation of the USAID/OFDA - USGS Volcano Disaster Assistance Program in Indonesia. Authors: Laine Berman, Ann von Briesen Lewis, John Lockwood, Erlinda Panisales, Joeni Hartanto Acknowledgements The evaluation team is grateful to many people in Washington DC, Vancouver, WA, Jakarta, Bandung, Jogjakarta, Tomohon, North Sulawesi and points in between. Special thanks to the administrative and support people who facilitated our extensive travels and the dedicated VDAP and CVGHM staff who work daily to help keep people safe. DISCLAIMER The author’s views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. Evaluation of the USAID/OFDA- USGS Volcano Disaster Assistance Program in Indonesia TABLE OF CONTENTS GLOSSARY OF TERMS .................................................................................................................................. i ACRONYMS ................................................................................................................................................ iv EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................ vi 2. PROGRAM BACKGROUND .................................................................................................................... 1 2.1. VDAP IN INDONESIA ................................................................................................................................... 2 2.2. CRISIS RESPONSE AND CAPACITY BUILDING ......................................................................................... 3 2.3. PARTNER ORGANIZATIONS AND STRUCTURE ....................................................................................... 4 2.4 VDAP FUNDING ............................................................................................................................................ 4 2.5. OTHER DONORS ........................................................................................................................................... 6 3. EVALUATION METHODS AND LIMITATIONS ................................................................................... 8 3.1. PROGRAM LOGIC ........................................................................................................................................... 8 3.2. APPROACH TO THE EVALUATION ............................................................................................................. 9 3.3. WORK PLAN ................................................................................................................................................... 9 3.4. PERSONNEL ................................................................................................................................................ 10 3.5. TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES ....................................................................................................................... 10 3.6. DATA ANALYSIS .......................................................................................................................................... 11 3.7. LIMITATIONS .............................................................................................................................................. 11 4. FINDINGS ............................................................................................................................................. 12 4.1. CAPACITY BUILDING IN NORTH SULAWESI ......................................................................................... 12 4.1.1 Overall Performance ........................................................................................................................................ 13 4.1.2. Coverage and Design ...................................................................................................................................... 14 4.1.3. Efficiency ............................................................................................................................................................. 16 4.1.4. Sustainability, North Sulawesi .................................................................................................................... 16 4.2. CAPACITY BUILDING AT CVGHM AND JAVA PROGRAM ................................................................... 17 4.2.1. Overall Impact ................................................................................................................................................... 17 4.2.2. Coverage and Design ...................................................................................................................................... 18 4.2.3. Efficiency ............................................................................................................................................................. 18 4.2.4. Sustainability ..................................................................................................................................................... 18 4.3. CRISIS RESPONSE: MOUNT MERAPI 2006 AND 2010 ........................................................................... 19 4.3.1. Overall Impact ................................................................................................................................................... 20 4.3.2. Coverage and Design ...................................................................................................................................... 21 4.3.3. Efficiency ............................................................................................................................................................. 22 4.3.4. Sustainability ..................................................................................................................................................... 22 4.4. OTHER KEY FINDINGS .............................................................................................................................. 23 4.4.1. Training ................................................................................................................................................................ 23 4.4.1.1. Types of Training................................................................................................................................................ 23 4.4.1.2. List of Trainings .................................................................................................................................................. 24 4.4.2. Equipment ........................................................................................................................................................ 25 4.4.3. Gender Equity .................................................................................................................................................. 26 4.4.4. Risk Mitigation Partnerships .................................................................................................................... 27 4.4.5. Science Diplomacy ......................................................................................................................................... 29 4.4.6. Quantifying Findings .................................................................................................................................... 30 5. CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................................................... 32 6. RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................................................................................................ 35 7. OTHER CONSIDERATIONS ................................................................................................................ 37 Annexes ............................................................................................................................................................... 40 Annex A: Evaluation Scope of Work .................................................................................................................... 40 Annex B: Matrix of Key Questions and Tools .................................................................................................. 47 Annex C: Persons Interviewed .............................................................................................................................. 51 Annex D: Eruptive History ...................................................................................................................................... 55 Annex E: Table of Trainings Conducted ............................................................................................................ 59 Annex F: Evaluation Activities ............................................................................................................................... 62 Annex G: Bibliography .............................................................................................................................................