MEASURING THE OIL VULNERABILITY OF CANADIAN CITIES Ruby Socorro M. Arico M. Sc. in Industrial Engineering and Operations Research University of the Philippines, 1997 RESEARCH PROJECT SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF URBAN STUDIES In the Urban Studies Program of Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences O Ruby Socorro M. Arico 2007 SIMON FRASER UNIVERSITY Spring 2007 All rights reserved. This work may not be reproduced in whole or in part, by photocopy or other means, without permission of the author. APPROVAL Name: Ruby Socorro M. Arico Degree: Master of Urban Studies Title of Research Project: Measuring the Oil Vulnerability of Canadian Cities Examining Committee: Chair: Dr. Karen Ferguson Dr. Anthony Perl Professor and Director, Urban Studies Program Simon Fraser University Vancouver, British Columbia Senior Supervisor Dr. Meg C. 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Simon Fraser University Library Burnaby, BC, Canada ABSTRACT Availability of cheap oil has allowed cities to maintain a certain standard of living and growing dependence on it makes cities vulnerable. Oil is a finite resource that will reach its peak production level then decline. The impacts of oil depletion on cities and its consequences to human existence are therefore inevitable. Adaptation of cities to a potential future when cheap oil is no longer the norm is an important urban policy and little is known about the vulnerability of urban areas. This study attempted to measure the vulnerability to oil prices of 14 census metropolitan areas in Canada representing its large and mid-sized cities. The goals are to raise public awareness, stimulate more research, and to provide baseline information. A composite indicator of social vulnerability from a set of indicators was constructed which revealed that Calgary is the least vulnerable and Saint John's as most vulnerable to oil prices. Keywords: composite indicator, social vulnerability, peak oil, vulnerability index DEDICATION lothe loving memory of my mother, whose passing away 6rought me to the Ur6an Studies firgram ofSimon 'Fraser University, lomy sisters and brotherfor their unconditionallbve andunderstanding of my desire for academic quest, lomy nieces, Carh, Athens, andaze4 and to my nephews, Shannon and Christopher, that they too may appreciate that baning is a lifetime journey. I would like to express my deepest gratitude to my Senior Supervisor, Dr. Anthony Perl, for his understanding, patience and guidance to keep me focused on the things that matter to this research project. Special thanks to my Supervisor, Dr. Meg Holden, not only for her scholarly advice but also for the inspiration to continue working on indicators, and for her friendliness. It was a great pleasure working with her not only in this research project but also in other coursework. I am honoured to have Dr. Aprodicio Laquian, as my External Examiner and my appreciation to Dr. Karen Ferguson who served as Chair of the Examining Committee. I am also grateful to Ms. Terri Evans, for her friendliness and unwavering assistance since I joined the Urban Studies Program. I would like to thank Ms. Jill Mandrake and Mr. Daniel Jans of Belzberg Library for their help and cooperation while I am doing all my coursework. To my friends, Ms. Vivien Ramos, Ms. Concepcion Javier and her husband, Joey, and to Ms. Zenaida Abanto for their assistance, patience in answering my technical questions and for their emotional support that helped to see me through the graduate program. Finally, to my sister, Maria Isabel, for her inspiration, understanding and support to make the completion of this research project easier for me. TABLE OF CONTENTS .. Approval ........................................................................................................................... 11 ... Abstract ........................................................................................................................... III Dedication ....................................................................................................................... iv Acknowledgements ....................... ............................................................................ v Table of Contents ....................................................................................................... vi ... List of Figures .............................................................................................................. VIII List of Tables .............................................................................................................. ix Chapter 1: Introduction .............................................................................................1 1 . 1 Background of the Study ...............................................................................5 1.1.1 Travel to Work ........................................................................................... 5 1.1.2 A Look at Petroleum Products Supply and Demand ................................. 6 1.2 Rationale of the Study ...................................................................................7 1.3 Significance of the Study ............................................................................... 8 1.4 Research Questions .................................................................................... 10 Chapter 2: Understanding the Concepts of Vulnerability .................................... 11 2.1 Defining Vulnerability ................................................................................ 11 2.2 The Role of Indicators and Indices .............................................................. 14 2.3 Past Initiatives in Developing Vulnerability Indices ..................................... 16 2.3.1 Economic Vulnerability Index .................................................................. 16 2.3.2 Environmental Vulnerability Index ........................................................... 17 2.3.3 Social Vulnerability Index ........................................................................ 18 2.3.4 Oil Vulnerability Index ..............................................................................19 Chapter 3: Research Design and Methodology .................................................... 25 3.1 Epistemology............................................................................................... 25 3.2 Theoretical Paradigm .................................................................................. 25