NEW-MED CONFERENCE ENERGY TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES: MEDITERRANEAN PERSPECTIVES 13 APRIL 2018 | 09:30–16:30 UNITED NATIONS BUFFER ZONE HOME FOR COOPERATION 28 MARCOU DRACOU STREET, NICOSIA - CYPRUS This workshop is organized by IAI-PRIO-GMF in the context of the New-Med initiative. The latter is a public-private partnership effort to promote Track II dialogue on a number of security and co- operation issues in the Mediterranean, including policy areas addressed by the OSCE in the context of its Mediterranean Partnership. The workshop comes on the heels of OSCE Mediterranean Contact Group meetings on “Energy security in times of economic and political uncertainty - looking green at the future of the Mediterranean“ (Vienna, 12 June 2017) and “Energy Security / Critical Energy Infrastructure Security”, (Vienna, 19 March 2018), in line with the priorities of Italy and Slovakia respectively as the Chairs of 2017 and 2018 Mediterranean Contact Groups. in cooperation with NEW-MED CONFERENCE – NICOSIA, 13 APRIL 2018 ENERGY TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES: MEDITERRANEAN PERSPECTIVES AGENDA 9:00 Registration of Participants 9:30 Introductory Remarks HARRY TZIMITRAS Director, PRIO Cyprus Centre, Nicosia LORENZO KAMEL Senior Fellow, IAI & Senior Lecturer, University of Bologna LUISA BALBI Programme Officer, Office of the Secretary General, External Co-Operation, Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), Vienna MARTA DIONISIO Policy Planning Unit, Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, Rome NICOLÒ RUSSO PEREZ Head of International Affairs Programme, Compagnia di San Paolo of Turin 10:00 Session I – Conceptualizing Energy Trends: The Historical Dimension 1908 marked one of the major turning points in the contemporary history of both the Middle East and Europe. It was the year of the discovery of oil reserves by the Anglo-Persian Oil Company (APOC) in Masjed Soleyman (Iran): the first big petroleum finding in the region that set off a wave of exploration, extraction and exploitation destined to change the world’s history. Since then, and particularly following the 1973 oil crisis, energy issues have had a far-reaching political, cultural, and social impact in the Eastern Mediterranean and neighbouring areas. Session I will shed light on this impact, providing a historical perspective on energy issues and a deeper understanding of the ongoing geopolitical dynamics. Chair: ETTORE GRECO Executive Vice-President, IAI, Rome Panelists: KIREN CHAUDHRY Associate Professor of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley GIULIANO GARAVINI Senior Research Fellow in the Humanities, New York University Abu Dhabi ROBIN MILLS Chief Executive Officer, Qamar Energy, Dubai PAUL RIVLIN Senior Research Fellow, Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, Tel Aviv University 11:30 Coffee Break 11:45 Session II – The Current Energy Landscape: A Pragmatic Appraisal For nearly a decade natural resources discoveries in the region have sparked a lively debate regarding their potential to aggravate existing conflicts or facilitate cooperation and peace. Indeed, oil and gas findings and potential reserves have led to some realignments between the states of the region, but also had huge economic implications. Session II will attempt to critically evaluate energy prospects in the region, and their potential contribution to European energy security. In parallel, an effort will be made to realistically assess the peace potential of hydrocarbons in view of the rising regional challenges. The session will also reflect on the role of the OSCE as a platform for growing pragmatic efforts to promote energy security dialogue, to ensure its continuity and facilitate the sharing of best practices between participating States and OSCE Mediterranean Partners for Co- operation. Chair: CHARLES ELLINAS Chief Executive Officer, EC Cyprus Natural Hydrocarbons Company Ltd (eCNHC), Nicosia NEW-MED CONFERENCE – NICOSIA, 13 APRIL 2018 ENERGY TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES: MEDITERRANEAN PERSPECTIVES Panelists: ELLEN SCHOLL Deputy Director, Global Energy Center, Atlantic Council, Washington TAREQ BACONI Policy Fellow, Middle East and North Africa, UK Programme, European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), London NICOLÒ SARTORI Head of Programme-Energy, Climate & Resources, IAI, Rome DANIEL KROOS Senior Programme Officer for Energy Security, Office of the Coordinator of Economic and Environmental Affairs, Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), Vienna 13:15 Lunch 14:30 Session III – Future Energy Scenarios: What’s next for the Mediterranean? In the past decade, the global energy system has undergone rapid and unexpected changes. The US shale gas production has increased by more than a factor of ten, with US gas imports reaching their lowest level since the early 80s. Renewable - in particular solar - energy costs have come down considerably, and after the Fukushima nuclear disaster, many developed nations have chosen to exit (renounce) their nuclear energy programs. In the next decade energy developments might be equally unpredictable, affecting the Eastern Mediterranean region in different ways. Session III will discuss the emerging energy trends and their influence on environmental and energy co-operation essential for good neighbourly relations in Mediterranean region and beyond. Chair: LEONIDAS PANTELIDES Former Director of Middle East and North Africa Division, Cyprus Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Former Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Republic of Cyprus to the USA, Nicosia Panelists: JANE BURSTON Director of Energy & Environment, National Physics Laboratory & Future of Energy Council, World Economic Forum, UK MEHMET ÖĞÜTÇÜ Founder and Chief Executive Officer, Global Resources Partnership, UK VALERIA TERMINI Vice-President, Association of Mediterranean Energy Regulators (MEDREG); Professor of Economics, Roma Tre University, Rome BASSAM FATTOUH Director, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, UK 16:00 Concluding Remarks BEATA SLOMINSKA Energy Diplomacy Officer, Division of Economic and Global Issues, European Union External Action (EEAS), Brussels KATARINA ZAKOVA Deputy Head of Mission, Permanent Mission of the Slovak Republic to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, Vienna 16:30 End of the Conference NEW-MED CONFERENCE – NICOSIA, 13 APRIL 2018 ENERGY TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES: MEDITERRANEAN PERSPECTIVES BIOGRAPHIES Bassam Fattouh is Director of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and Professor at the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London. He specialises in international oil pricing systems, OPEC pricing power, security of Middle Eastern oil supplies, and the dynamics of oil prices and oil price differentials. He has published a variety of articles on oil and gas topics and his publications have appeared in academic and professional journals. Dr. Fattouh served as a member of an independent expert group established to provide recommendations to the 12th International Energy Forum (IEF) Ministerial Meeting for strengthening the architecture of the producer-consumer dialogue through the IEF. He also acts as an adviser to governments and industry, and is a regular speaker at international conferences. Beata Slominska is Energy Diplomacy Officer at Economic and Global Issues Division, European External Action Service. Previously, for over 9 years Senior Analyst on the transatlantic relations in the Department of Americas, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Poland and Analyst on the EU internal market and programming of the Polish Presidency in the EU in the Economic Department of the EU, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Poland. Author of publications on the economic and energy aspects of EU and US policies. Graduate of the College of Europe and fellow of the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University. Charles Ellinas has over 35 years’ experience in the oil & gas sector in senior management positions. Currently he is the CEO of e-CNHC (E-C Cyprus Natural Hydrocarbons Company Ltd), providing management and advisory services in the oil & gas and energy sectors in Cyprus and the region. A lot needs to be done and the aim of the company is to contribute to the successful development of these sectors for the future of Cyprus. Prior to this, as CEO of KRETYK, he was responsible for implementing the Cyprus government’s strategy for the development of its hydrocarbons sector. Until 2012 he was a Director of Mott MacDonald for 25 years and the Managing Director of Mott MacDonald’s Oil, Gas & Petrochemicals business world-wide. Daniel Kroos studied Law, Business and International Relations in Berlin and Washington DC. He has advised Policy Planning Council of the German Federal Foreign Office in Berlin, the European Commission in Brussels and British Petroleum in Baku, Azerbaijan on energy issues. From 2008-2010 he served as Deputy Director of the German Chamber of Commerce in Baku, Azerbaijan. Before joining OSCE he led the oil & gas practice as Vice President of BTO Management Consulting AG in Berlin and Zürich, managing international projects in M&A, post-merger integration and optimization in the oil & gas industry. Daniel currently serves as Senior Programme Officer for Energy Security at the Office of the Co-ordinator of Economic and Environmental Affairs (OCEEA) at the OSCE Secretariat in Vienna, advising on regional energy security issues as well as renewable energy. Ellen Scholl is deputy director at the Atlantic Council’s Global