Technical Assistance Consultant’s Report Project Number: TA 7117 – PRC October 2009 People’s Republic of China: Heilongjiang Road Development II Project (Yichun-Nenjiang) FINAL REPORT (Volume II of IV) Submitted by: H & J, INC. Beijing International Center, Tower 3, Suite 1707, Beijing 100026 US Headquarters: 6265 Sheridan Drive, Suite 212, Buffalo, NY 14221 In association with WINLOT No 11 An Wai Avenue, Huafu Garden B-503, Beijing 100011 This consultant’s report does not necessarily reflect the views of ADB or the Government concerned, ADB and the Government cannot be held liable for its contents. All views expressed herein may not be incorporated into the proposed project’s design. Asian Development Bank Heilongjiang Road Development II (TA 7117 – PRC) Final Report Supplementary Appendix A Financial Analysis and Projections_SF1 S App A - 1 Heilongjiang Road Development II (TA 7117 – PRC) Final Report SUPPLEMENTARY APPENDIX SF1 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS A. Introduction 1. Financial projections and analysis have been prepared in accordance with the 2005 edition of the Guidelines for the Financial Governance and Management of Investment Projects Financed by the Asian Development Bank. The Guidelines cover both revenue earning and non revenue earning projects. Project roads include expressways, Class I and Class II roads. All will be built by the Heilongjiang Provincial Communications Department (HPCD). When the project started it was assumed that all project roads would be revenue earning. It was then discovered that national guidance was that Class 2 roads should be toll free. The ADB agreed that the DFR should concentrate on the revenue earning Expressway and Class I roads, 2. As required in the Guidelines, the revenue earning evaluation was conducted in two separate parts. First were financial projections for the revenue earning project, using nominal prices (including inflation) and presenting accounting results. Second was cash flow financial analysis for the revenue earning project in constant before inflation prices producing real rates of return etc. These have very different uses, as discussed in section E.4 below. 3. The ADB decided that analysis of the revenue earning project should be backed by evaluation of the likely importance of the non-revenue earning Class II road on provincial finances. This has two major rationales. First to see if the investment and required loan will put too large a burden on HPCD. Second is to determine if future maintenance needs can be properly met. B. Financial Forecast Assumptions 4. For convenience, accounting results are shown for 27 years, 2009 through 2035, by which date the ADB loan will be fully repaid. The FIRR calculation is made for 25 years and includes a residual value, equal to net asset value. Annual domestic inflation has been assumed at 2.0% throughout the projection period, in accordance with ADB ERD/Divisional guidance. PRC national guidance is that the depreciable life should be no more than the loan period; the FSR assumes even less. If road cost forecasts include periodic maintenance, as they do here, then that life is too short. A life of 40 years has been assumed, giving a depreciation rate of 2.5%1. Terms for ADB on lending have been assumed at 2.45% interest, plus a 0.20% handling charge. These were the 5 year Libor rates on 12 April 2009. A grace period of 5 years is assumed, in line with ongoing ADB loans to PRC. The EA have informed that they intend to pay interest during that period, which will be confirmed during negotiations. The repayment period is 20 years. A domestic loan from the China Development Bank is already agreed. The loan will have the People’s Republic Bank of China interest, which has been 5.94% since December 2008. That has been assumed to continue, which might be optimistic. Grace on repayments for the 4 year construction period has been assumed. As with the ADB loan, the EA say they will pay interest as it is incurred. The local loan is assumed to have a repayment period after grace of 20 years. Since the financial analysis includes payments of interest in construction years, it is unnecessary to amortize deferred expenses. Corporation tax at 25% has been assumed. National instructions are that 10% of after tax income should be transferred to a legal surplus reserve. Guidance is that another 10% should be set aside as staff welfare reserve. It is also expected that 95% of unallocated retained earnings will be distributed as dividends in the following year. These have all been assumed but are not shown separately in the cash flow statement due to shortage of space. The assumptions are summarized below. 1 Similar ADB projects used lives of 24, 30, 34 and 44 years. S App A - 2 Heilongjiang Road Development II (TA 7117 – PRC) Final Report Table 1 Financial Forecasting Assumptions Item Assumption Forecast Period 25 years, 27 years shown in projections Domestic Inflation 2% per year US$ CNY 6.829 Depreciable Life 40 years. ADB Loan Interest 5 Year Libor rate plus 0.20% ADB handling fee Libor 10 September 2009, 2.77% ADB Loan Grace 5 years on repayments ADB Loan Grace 5 years on interest allowed but not used ADB Loan Period 20 years after grace Local Loan Interest People’s Bank of China rate, 5.94% since December 2008 Local Loan Grace 4 years on repayments Local Loan Grace 4 years on interest allowed but not used Local Loan Period 15 years after grace Tolls Base 2009 rates see Table 7 O&M Costs See FSR columns in Table 10 Periodic Maintenance Put to investment Corporation Tax 25% Legal Surplus Reserve 10% after tax income Staff Welfare Reserve 10% after tax income Dividend Distribution 95% of unallocated retained earnings FIRR Residual Life Net Asset Value 1. Toll Rates and Revenue Collection 5. Provinces in China choose one of two systems to set tariffs on tollable roads, known as the Average and the Standard systems. With the Standard system, the authorities agree a set of tariffs to be applied to all roads of a particular class in the province. With the Average system, the authorities calculate averages for existing tariffs and then use these as background when setting the tariff for a new road. Average data in Heilongjiang Province are not published and have been collated only since the Toll Bureau was set up in February 2006. 6. Heilongjiang Province uses the Average system. This means that tariffs on the Project roads cannot be known with any certainty at this stage. In practice, when the road is some six months from completion, three Heilongjiang provincial (HP) departments will between them decide on the tolls, the HP Price Department, HP Financial Department and HP Communications Department (HPCD, the EA). The initial Heilongjiang Road Development Project (HRDP1) covenanted that HPG should set rates 6 months before Project opening and inform ADB of any significant difficulties for the next three years. ADB might want to consider a covenant for the required toll; HRDP1 covenanted a DSCR of 1.2 from the 6th year of operation. Note, however, that such operational covenants have not been fully effective in other sectors: possibly because by the time the covenant is relevant, the loan is fully disbursed. 7. For expressways, HP uses the “one-stop toll collection” system recommended by the national government: vehicles receive a computerized ticket when entering the system and pay an appropriately calculated amount based on the per km toll when leaving. The provincial Finance Bureau say that all toll revenues are remitted to them to be used as general revenue. This is varied for existing BOT/O&M Concession schemes, who keep their own toll revenue. It means that any calculation of Project revenues is only notional. 2. Forecast Toll Rates 8. Heilongjiang Province’s presently stated average tolls are shown below. There is no official assumption, but the Class I and Class II tolls per vehicle stage (toll booth) are based S App A - 3 Heilongjiang Road Development II (TA 7117 – PRC) Final Report approximately on a 50 km stage length; which is used to calculate the corresponding per km tolls shown. Since the Class I project road section is only 16.3 km, use of the average vehicle stage rates shown would have put the assumed tolls per km higher than those for expressways. The ADB asked that they be lowered to equalize the rates and so 0.51 stages have been assumed. Table 2 Average Tolls in Heilongjiang Province in CNY in 2008/09 Car/Truck Bus Express-Way Class I Class II Class I Class II By weight (ton) Seat CNY Per Km CNY Per Vehicle CNY Per Km Stage (Quoted) (Calc. @ 50 km) < 2 < 7 0.45 15 10 0.30 0.20 2-5 8-19 0.65 20 15 0.40 0.30 > 5-10 20-39 0.85 25 20 0.50 0.40 > 10-15, 20 ft container > 40 1.00 30 25 0.60 0.50 > 15, 40 ft container --- 1.20 40 30 0.80 0.60 9. Tolls assumed in similar ADB projects are summarized below – rates for only small vehicles are given to simplify presentation and since they represent over 70% of traffic. In each case, tolls were assumed to increase with inflation once every five years. With an average length of 50 km per stage, the rate of CNY 0.35 per vehicle km assumed for HRPDI is equivalent to CNY 17.5 per stage. This is above the presently quoted average rates of CNY 10 for Class II and CNY 15 for Class I. Table 3 Base Tolls Assumed in Similar ADB RRP Project RRP Date Loan Road Type CNY/Vehicle/Km Heilongjiang RDPI June 2006 2247 Class I & II 0.35 West Guanxi Jul;y 2007 2345 Expressway 0.40 Xinjiang November 2007 2393 Expressway 0.25 – 0.30 Central Yunan September 2008 2348 Expressway 0.40 10.