POLICY ANALYSIS EXERCISE Implementing the Global Fragility Act Erin Gregor Sakina Haider Grace Pringle Erin Siela! PAPER JULY 2020 Belfer Center for Science and International A!airs Harvard Kennedy School 79 JFK Street Cambridge, MA 02138 www.belfercenter.org This paper was completed as a Harvard Kennedy School Policy Analysis Exercise, a yearlong project for second-year Master in Public Policy candidates to work with real-world clients in crafting and presenting timely policy recommendations. Statements and views expressed in this report are solely those of the authors and do not imply endorsement by Harvard University, Harvard Kennedy School, or the Belfer Center for Science and International A!airs. Cover photo: A woman walks with her child in a refugee camp in the western Darfur region of Sudan. This photograph was taken sometime in October of 2004. (Henry McInnes/Sunday Mail for Mercy Corps) Copyright 2020, President and Fellows of Harvard College IMPLEMENTING THE GLOBAL FRAGILITY ACT Erin Gregor MPP 2020 Sakina Haider MPP 2020 Grace Pringle MPP 2020 Erin Sielaff MPP 2020 Client: Richmond Blake, Director of Policy and Advocacy, Mercy Corps PAE Advisor: Professor Meghan O’Sullivan Seminar Leader: Professor Dara Kay Cohen Date: March 26, 2020 This Policy Analysis Exercise (PAE) reflects the views of the authors and should not be viewed as representing the views of the PAE's external client, Harvard University, or any of its faculty. Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master in Public Policy. 1 Photo Credit: Mercy Corps Table of Contents List of Tables and Figures ................................................................................................................................ ii About the Authors ............................................................................................................................................ iii Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................................................ v Acronyms ........................................................................................................................................................... vi Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................... 1 1.0 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 4 2.0 Methodology ................................................................................................................................................ 5 2.1 Research Questions ................................................................................................................................. 5 2.2 Quantitative Analysis .............................................................................................................................. 5 2.3 Qualitative Analysis ................................................................................................................................. 5 2.4 Assumptions and Limitations ................................................................................................................ 6 3.0 Background and Context ............................................................................................................................ 7 3.1 Global Fragility Act ................................................................................................................................. 7 3.2 Fragility and Its Causes ........................................................................................................................... 7 3.3 Fragility and Violent Conflict ................................................................................................................ 8 3.4 Definitions of Prevention and Stabilization ........................................................................................ 9 3.5 Lessons Learned on State Fragility and Aid Effectiveness ............................................................... 9 4.0 Country and Region Selection ................................................................................................................. 13 4.1 Global Fragility Act Criteria ................................................................................................................. 13 4.2 Additional Lenses .................................................................................................................................. 17 4.3 Concluding Considerations .................................................................................................................. 20 5.0 Case Studies ................................................................................................................................................ 22 5.1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 22 5.2 Ethiopia: Case for Prevention ............................................................................................................. 22 5.3 Guatemala: Case for Stabilization ....................................................................................................... 33 6.0 Recommendations ..................................................................................................................................... 43 6.1 Country and Region Selection ............................................................................................................. 43 6.2 Interventions .......................................................................................................................................... 44 6.3 Monitoring and Evaluation .................................................................................................................. 45 6.4 Coordination .......................................................................................................................................... 46 6.5 Global Fragility Strategy Formation ................................................................................................... 48 Bibliography ...................................................................................................................................................... 49 Appendix A: Unpacking the Indices in the Global Fragility Act ............................................................. 57 Appendix B: Country Ratings on Global Fragility Act Selection Indices ............................................... 75 Appendix C: List of Interviewees .................................................................................................................. 78 Appendix D: D.C. Interview Guide .............................................................................................................. 80 Appendix E: Ethiopia and Guatemala Interview Guide ............................................................................ 81 Appendix F: The Definition of Fragility ...................................................................................................... 82 Appendix G: The Link Between Fragility and Conflict ............................................................................. 85 Appendix H: Types of Violence and The Cycle of Conflict ..................................................................... 89 Appendix I: Additional Violence Data ......................................................................................................... 91 Appendix J: Potential Governance, Human Rights, Rule of Law, and Access to Justice Indicators . 93 Appendix K: Examples of Effective Conflict Prevention Programs in Ethiopia .................................. 94 Appendix L: Ethics and Transparency Statement ...................................................................................... 95 i List of Tables and Figures Table 1: Overview of the GFA Table 2: Triggers of Conflict Table 3: Ethiopia Country Overview Table 4: Drivers of Violence and Conflict Prevention Interventions in Ethiopia Table 5: Should Ethiopia be selected for the GFA? Table 6: Guatemala Country Overview Table 7: Drivers of Violence and Conflict Prevention Interventions in Guatemala Table 8: Should Guatemala be selected for the GFA? Figure 1: Country Selection Process Figure 2: Thirty Worst Performing Countries on GFA State Fragility Indices Figure 3: Map of Ethiopia Figure 4: Map of Guatemala Figure 5: Expert and Index Recommendations on Potential Priority Countries ii About the Authors All of the authors are Master in Public Policy candidates at the Harvard Kennedy School (HKS). In addition, Erin Sielaff is concurrently pursuing her Juris Doctor at Georgetown University Law Center. Erin Gregor’s focus areas are global health and international development. While at HKS, she co-authored a peer-reviewed paper for the Food and Nutrition Bulletin on health and agriculture integration in Ethiopia and has been part of the teaching team for four courses with Ambassador Nicholas Burns, Ambassador Wendy Sherman, Professor Gary Orren, Professor James Sebenius, and Professor Robert Mnookin. She was also a Graduate Intern with the United Nations Development Programme’s Health, HIV, and Development team working on universal health coverage, non-communicable diseases, and HIV. Prior to HKS,