Poverty Assessment and Mapping in Sudan Part 1 Poverty Assessment Northern Sudan Hamid Faki, Eltahir Mohamed Nur, Abdelaziz Abdelfattah, Aden A Aw-Hassan Agricultural Economics and Policy Research Centre (AEPRC), Agricultural Research CorporaƟon (ARC), Sudan Poverty Assessment Northern Sudan Copyright © 2012 ICARDA (Internaonal Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas). All rights reserved. ICARDA encourages fair use of this material for non-commercial purposes, with proper citaon. Citaon: Hamid Faki, Eltahir Mohamed Nur, Abdelaziz Abdelfaah, Aden A Aw-Hassan. 2012. Poverty Assessment Northern Sudan. ICARDA, Aleppo, Syria. vi + 62 pp. ISBN: 92-9127-261-2 Internaonal Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) P.O.Box 5466, Aleppo, Syria Tel: +963 21 2213433, 2213477, 2225012 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.icarda.org The views expressed are those of the authors, and not necessarily those of ICARDA. Where trade names are used, it does not imply endorsement of, or discriminaon against, any product by the Center. Maps have been used to support research data, and are not intended to show polical boundaries. ii Contents Execuve Summary .................................................................................................................................. v Poverty Assessment and Mapping in Nourth Sudan ............................................................................. 1 1. The Seng ......................................................................................................................................... 1 2. Food Poverty ...................................................................................................................................... 4 3. Human Poverty .................................................................................................................................. 14 4. Interrelaons between Agriculture and Poverty Distribuon ........................................................... 22 5. Income from Agricultural Acvies ................................................................................................... 26 6. Crop Producvity ............................................................................................................................... 32 7. Food Poverty in Selected States in Northern Sudan .......................................................................... 36 8. Conclusions......................................................................................................................................... 55 References .............................................................................................................................................. 61 iii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Sudan Rural Poverty Analysis This is Part 1 of a study, presented in three reports that detail the results of a poverty assessment and mapping project in North and Southern Sudan. The study’s objecve was to produce a rural poverty analysis and poverty maps for North and Southern Sudan, and based on these findings, recommend agricultural intervenons that can help reduce poverty. These findings provided an input to the IFAD Sudan Country Program 2007–2012, that takes into consideraon the new constuonal changes in Sudan resulng from the peace agreements with South/East/West Sudan and to support peace, security and stability in Sudan. • Poverty assessment in Northern Sudan – Part 1 • Poverty assessment in Southern Sudan – Part 2 • Mapping of agricultural resource potenal of North and Southern Sudan – Part 3. Northern Sudan Assessment: Key findings and recommendaons The results of the Northern Sudan Poverty Assessment show higher rural than urban poverty, in the six regions studied. This rural–urban disparity was mainly due to the rural–urban differences in food composions and food prices. However, in absolute terms the number of rural poor was greater than of urban poor. Higher poverty incidence in rural areas is a due to chronic low producvity and low income in rural areas. A targeng procedure conducive to poverty reducon in the Sudan is proposed in a chart, which suggests priority agricultural intervenons in the 10 states with both highest income poverty and human poverty levels (see the recommendaon at the end of the Northern Sudan report). Overall findings - General state of the economy and agriculture - North and South Sudan’s economic structure has undergone a major shi over the past two decades (DTIS, 2008), the main drivers of this change are the discovery of oil in the early 2000s and the expansion in services dominated by telecommunicaons, transport, and construcon. Agriculture used to be the leading economic sector, forming typically more than 40% of GDP, but has lost much ground with a drop of its GDP share to 33% in 2007. A more dramac trend has been the deterioraon in the contribuon of agriculture to the country’s exports, declining to some 3% in 2007 down from an average of 74% in the 1996–1998 period. Both the relave share and the absolute value of agricultural exports has declined. Data from the Central Bank of Sudan reveals an annual trend value of $71,500. Both income poverty and general human poverty are concerns for North and Southern v Sudan. There is considerable deprivaon in educaon and health, and poor households are parcularly disadvantaged. Yet, despite the current fragile situaon of Sudan’s agriculture, this study found that the countries have enormous potenal to raise crop yields by bridging at least part of its current ‘yield gaps’ – between actual and potenal food producon. These vary from 46% to as high as 56% between on-farm trials and prevailing commercial producvity. Irrigated crops can be improved by margins ranging from about 50% to > 140%. Even higher yield potenal have been idenfied for rainfed crops – where potenal margins ranged from twofold to over fivefold. Prerequisites for achieving these levels of development and macro-economic stability require an ambious development plan that includes: creaon of a sound financial system and an efficient federal system through more decentralizaon, coupled with adequate financial and technical resources and parcipatory mechanisms, and the just income and wealth distribuon. Southern Sudan Assessment – Key findings and recommendaons (Part 2) The survey esmates income poverty incidence at 99.6% in the states of Eastern Equatoria State, 88.6% in the Lakes State, and 54.0% in Central Equatoria State. The situaon was especially serious in Eastern Equatoria and Lakes States. The study also showed acute shoralls of the required caloric intake for about a third of both Eastern Equatoria and Central Equatoria States. Some 60% of the populaon in Lakes State faces a shorall in the required daily caloric food intake. This is an indicaon of deep poverty among a sizeable poron of the populaon. Lakes State had the lowest per capita income from both agricultural and non-agricultural sources. In all states, poverty was lower when expenditure esmates were used than when income esmates were used. This is a common feature in poverty analysis, and it is generally believed that expenditures are more easily recalled than incomes, but the ranking of relave poverty by province did not change. To address this acute situaon a set of 14 recommendaons is proposed. The government will need to implement a long-term poverty reducon strategy that takes a broad perspecve – focusing on strengthening its instuons, developing and implemenng policies and legislaon, invesng in related areas of research and infrastructure to link rural communies to economic centers building capacity, systems, and structures for delivering services in the areas of health, educaon, and clean water. Acons for donors and other partners such as the private sector are also specified. Mapping of agricultural resource potenal of North and Southern Sudan (Part 3) This secon provides detailed maps of different agro-ecological, climac, and soil indices. These have been combined into agricultural resource potenal indices. vi POVERTY ASSESSMENT AND MAPPING IN NORTHERN SUDAN Hamid Faki1, Eltahir Mohamed Nur2, Abdelaziz Abdelfaah1and Aden A Aw-Hassan 1Agricultural Economics and Policy Research Centre (AEPRC), Sudan; and Agricultural Research Corporaon (ARC), Sudan - [email protected] 2Dept. of Economics, University of Khartoum, [email protected] 1. THE SETTING 1.1 Sudan’s administrave and macroeconomic view Sudan, one of the largest countries in Africa, lies roughly within latudes 3–22°N and longitudes 22–38°E. and is neighbor to nine countries around almost all of its borders. While Sudan’s locaon offers a strategic economic posion, it is nevertheless associated with a high influx of refugees across its borders, adding to the poverty situaon that already exists in the country. The lately completed populaon census in the Sudan (2008) puts the country’s populaon at about 39.154 million. No figures are yet available from the census on the growth rates or rural–urban raos, but according to the (World Bank, 2008) the populaon growth rate was 2.5% in 2007, and 40% of the populaon lives in urban areas. Compared with an urban populaon share of 31.9% in 1993, the urban populaon grew at a relavely quick pace over the past 15 years or so. Besides normal populaon growth, this is partly caused by substanal migraon from rural to urban areas, which is in turn partly a result of deteriorang livelihood condions in the former and increasing poverty over me. Administravely, the country is divided into 25 states; 15 in the north