Australian National Tobacco Plain Packaging Tracking Survey: Technical Report Prepared for: Australian Government Department of Health Kerri Coomber, Meghan Zacher, Sarah Durkin, Emily Brennan, Michelle Scollo, Melanie Wakefield Centre for Behavioural Research in Cancer, Cancer Council Victoria Paul Myers, Natasha Vickers, Sebastian Misson Social Research Centre Melbourne: Cancer Council Victoria and Social Research Centre March 2015 2 Table of contents Table of contents ....................................................................................................................... 2 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 4 1.1 About this report ........................................................................................................................... 4 1.2 Study background and context for evaluation .............................................................................. 4 1.3 Study overview .............................................................................................................................. 7 1.4 Ethics and quality assurance ......................................................................................................... 8 2. Baseline survey ...................................................................................................................... 9 2.1 Sample design and quotas ............................................................................................................ 9 2.2 Sample frame .............................................................................................................................. 10 2.3 Respondent selection procedure ................................................................................................ 11 2.4 Sample release and call procedures ........................................................................................... 11 2.5 Questionnaire design and administration procedures ............................................................... 13 2.6 Response rate ............................................................................................................................. 14 2.6.1 Adjusted response rate ................................................................................................................. 14 2.6.2 American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Response Rate 3 (RR3) .................. 19 2.7. Refusal analysis ......................................................................................................................... 20 3. Follow-up survey .................................................................................................................. 21 3.1. Sample design and call procedures ........................................................................................... 21 3.2. Follow-up questionnaire design and administration procedures .............................................. 22 3.3 Follow-up Retention rates ......................................................................................................... 23 3.4 Refusal analysis .......................................................................................................................... 27 3.5. Retention analysis ...................................................................................................................... 27 4. Data weighting ..................................................................................................................... 29 4.1 Baseline survey ........................................................................................................................... 29 4.2 Follow-up survey ......................................................................................................................... 30 5. Demographic characteristics of respondents ...................................................................... 31 5.1 Baseline survey ........................................................................................................................... 31 5.2 Follow-up survey ......................................................................................................................... 32 6. Description of variables used in analyses ............................................................................ 35 6.1 Baseline survey ........................................................................................................................... 35 6.1.1 Smoking status and smoker characteristics .................................................................................. 35 6.1.2 Variables measuring the transition to tobacco plain packaging and rollout of Set 2 warnings .... 39 6.1.3 Appeal-related variables ............................................................................................................... 40 6.1.4 GHW effectiveness variables ........................................................................................................ 42 6.1.5 Variables assessing perceived harm of brands and variants......................................................... 44 6.1.6 Balance between smoking enjoyment and concern ..................................................................... 45 6.1.7 Health effects of smoking variables .............................................................................................. 46 6.1.8 Media recall and appraisal ............................................................................................................ 47 6.1.9 Quitting-related variables ............................................................................................................. 48 6.1.10 Public support for the plain packaging legislation ...................................................................... 50 6.2 Follow-up survey ......................................................................................................................... 50 3 6.2.1 Smoking status and smoker characteristics .................................................................................. 50 6.2.2 GHW effectiveness variables ........................................................................................................ 51 6.2.3 Quitting-related variables ............................................................................................................. 52 6.3 Covariates ................................................................................................................................... 53 6.3.1 Demographic characteristics ......................................................................................................... 53 6.3.2 Anti-smoking mass media campaigns ........................................................................................... 53 6.3.3 Cigarette costliness ....................................................................................................................... 54 6.3.4 Season ........................................................................................................................................... 54 References ............................................................................................................................... 55 Appendices ............................................................................................................................... 64 Appendix 1: Geographical quota structure, by wave .............................................................. 64 Appendix 2: Baseline survey .................................................................................................... 69 Appendix 3: Follow-up survey ............................................................................................... 111 Appendix 4: American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Response Rate 3 (RR3) ................................................................................................................. 134 Appendix 5: Approach to weighting of baseline survey ........................................................ 139 Appendix 6: Approach to weighting of follow-up survey ...................................................... 148 Appendix 6A: Recodes made to predictor variables ....................................................................... 150 Appendix 6B: Logistic regression results......................................................................................... 152 4 1. Introduction 1.1 About this report This technical report provides details of the methodology for the National Tobacco Plain Packaging Tracking survey. The research was funded by the Department of Health under a contract with Cancer Council Victoria. Fieldwork was undertaken by the Social Research Centre, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Australian National University. This report documents the study design and provides detail of survey procedures including sample frame, respondent selection procedure, interview procedure and questionnaire design, respondent characteristics, response rates and retention rates, and data weighting. 1.2 Study background and context for evaluation In April 2010, as part of an overall package of measures, the Australian Government announced an immediate 25% increase in excise duty on tobacco, along with a world-first proposal for plain packaging of tobacco products[1, 2] together with updated, larger graphic health warnings. The Tobacco Plain Packaging