Human Settlements Discussion Paper Series Theme: Climate Change and Cities - 1 Adapting to Climate Change in Urban Areas The possibilities and constraints in low- and middle-income nations David Satterthwaite, Saleemul Huq, Mark Pelling, Hannah Reid and Patricia Romero Lankao This is a working paper produced by the Human Settlements Group and the Climate Change Group at the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED). The authors are grateful to the Rockefeller Foundation both for supporting the preparation of this paper and for permission to publish it. It is based on a background paper prepared for the Rockefeller Foundation’s Global Urban Summit, Innovations for an Urban World, in Bellagio in July 2007. For more details of the Rockefeller Foundation’s work in this area, see http://www.rockfound.org/initiatives/climate/climate_change.shtml The financial support that IIED’s Human Settlements Group receives from the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) and the Royal Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs (DANIDA) supported the publication and dissemination of this working paper. ii ABOUT THE AUTHORS Dr David Satterthwaite is a Senior Fellow at the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) and editor of the international journal, Environment and Urbanization. He has written or edited various books on urban issues, including Squatter Citizen (with Jorge E. Hardoy), The Earthscan Reader on Sustainable Cities, Environmental Problems in an Urbanizing World (with Jorge E. Hardoy and Diana Mitlin) and Empowering Squatter Citizen, Local Government, Civil Society and Urban Poverty Reduction (with Diana Mitlin), published by Earthscan, London. He is an Honorary Professor at the University of Hull and in 2004 was one of the recipients of the Volvo Environment Prize. He has also been active in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, particularly in regard to the possibilities for and constraints on adaptation for cities in low- and middle-income nations. Dr Saleemul Huq heads the Climate Change Group at IIED. He specializes in links between climate change and sustainable development, with particular focus on the perspectives of low- and middle- income nations. He is currently working on issues relating to vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in the Least Developed Countries. He is a Coordinating Lead Author of the chapter on Adaptation and Mitigation in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. Prior to his role at IIED, he was Executive Director of the Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies. Dr Hannah Reid is a Senior Associate with the Climate Change Group at IIED. She works on links between climate change and sustainable development, especially from the perspective of low- and middle-income countries. She is particularly interested in links between climate change and both biodiversity and urban areas. Address: IIED, 3 Endsleigh Street, London WC1H ODD, UK E-mails: [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] Dr Patricia Romero Lankao is Deputy Director at the Institute for the Study of Society and Environment at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado. Prior to this, she was a Professor at the Autonomous Metropolitan University, Xochimilco, in Mexico City. She has contributed to a number of international networks, including being a member of the scientific committee of the Global Carbon Project. She was convening author of the chapter on Industry, Settlement and Society in Working Group II of the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment, as well as a lead author of the Summary for Policy Makers and Technical Summary. Dr Romero Lankao has published 10 books, and many book chapters and papers on the interface of the human dimensions of global environmental change (e.g. urban development pathways and public policies as drivers of and responses to climate change). Address: SERE Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, PO Box 3000, Boulder, Colorado 80307-3000, USA. E-mail: [email protected] Dr Mark Pelling is Reader in Human Geography, King’s College London. His research focuses on natural-disaster risk and climate-change adaptation with a particular interest in urban societies. He is author of The Vulnerability of Cities: Natural Disaster and Social Resilience (Earthscan) and Natural Disasters and Development in a Globalising World (Routledge). He was also lead author for four chapters on disaster risk for UN-HABITAT’s Global Report on Human Settlements 2007: Enhancing Urban Safety and Security. He is Chair of the Climate Change Research Group of the Royal Geographical Society. Address: Department of Geography, King’s College University of London, The Strand, London WC2R 2LS, UK E-mail: [email protected] This paper can be downloaded at no charge from http://www.iied.org/HS/topics/accc.html; it can also be accessed direct at www.iied.org/pubs/display.php?o=10549IIED ISBN: 978-1-84369-669-8 iii CONTENTS PREFACE .................................................................................................................................................. vi THE BIG ISSUES: A SUMMARY .......................................................................................................... vii I. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................... 1 The potentials for adaptation................................................................................................................... 1 The constraints on implementation ......................................................................................................... 2 Climate change and other risks................................................................................................................ 4 II. BACKGROUND .................................................................................................................................... 6 The dimensions of urban change............................................................................................................. 6 The scale of urbanization..................................................................................................................... 6 The growth of large cities.................................................................................................................... 8 Vulnerability and resilience..................................................................................................................... 9 Understanding vulnerability ................................................................................................................ 9 Urban contexts pose particular challenges for governments ............................................................. 11 The continuum of risk from everyday to catastrophic disasters........................................................ 13 Extreme weather events and risk-accumulation processes................................................................ 15 III. UNDERSTANDING VULNERABILITIES OF CITIES AND THE URBAN POOR TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE.............................................................................................................. 15 The vulnerability of cities to climate change......................................................................................... 15 Flooding............................................................................................................................................. 17 Storms, sea-level rise and coastal urban populations ........................................................................ 22 Constraints on water supplies and other key natural resources ......................................................... 25 Higher temperatures and heatwaves.................................................................................................. 28 Other health risks related to climate change...................................................................................... 28 The particular problems facing urban populations in small island nations ........................................... 29 Identifying drivers ................................................................................................................................. 30 What drives urban change? ............................................................................................................... 30 Government roles .............................................................................................................................. 35 Cities and high-risk sites ................................................................................................................... 35 Government and the public good ...................................................................................................... 36 Identifying trends .................................................................................................................................. 37 Trends in urban disasters associated with extreme weather events................................................... 38 Urban poverty and risk .......................................................................................................................... 41 Effects of increased climate variability and change on the urban poor............................................. 43 Who is most at risk? Differentials by location,