Stories about shrinkage: an analysis of planning narratives in the province of Groningen Doo-Hwan van Gennip - s3232476 Supervisor: Dr. Christian Lamker Socio-spatial Planning University of Groningen, Faculty of Spatial Sciences 15th of January 2021 Abstract In the coming decades, the province of Groningen will likely continue experiencing a polarisation between ‘Stad’ and ‘Ommeland’. While the city of Groningen can expect continued growth of the economy and population, the northern and eastern parts of the province of Groningen are projected to continue to undergo a process of shrinkage. This development raises certain challenges to spatial planning in these areas and will require new ways of thinking. At the same time, current growth-oriented planning strategies are coming under increased criticism especially in shrinking contexts. This thesis used the concept of storytelling in planning to explore the narratives that are told about shrinkage by two shrinking municipalities (Delfzijl and Stadskanaal) and the provincial government of Groningen. With the help of interviews and an analysis of policy documents, the underlying policies, frames and goals of current shrinkage policies were analysed in relation to the growth and post-growth paradigms. Results suggest that traditional forms of growth are no longer the main goal of planning efforts and that a new ‘liveability’ narrative has emerged. However, aspects of this narrative can be questioned in relation to their full departure from growth-oriented planning and a further concretisation of the new narrative might be needed to prevent it from being diluted by competing growth-oriented narratives. Key words: Shrinkage, peripheralisation, post-growth paradigm, regional planning, storytelling 1 Acknowledgements Over the past decade, the divide between rural and urban areas has become increasingly apparent. Many people in rural and/or shrinking areas feel increasingly left out and left behind. It is my strong belief that planners have an active role to play in showing these people that their interests are as important as the interests of those who live in growing cities. This thesis has, therefore, explored narratives about shrinkage in the province of Groningen in order to make a contribution to this debate and to the futures of shrinking areas. I want to thank my thesis supervisor Dr. Christian Lamker for the support and feedback he gave me throughout the process of writing this thesis. Our conversations encouraged me and always sharpened my thinking. I would also like to express my gratitude towards the interviewees who were willing to participate in this study under non-conventional circumstances. Their stories and perspectives have enriched my view on planning for shrinkage. Finally, I want to thank my family and friends for serving as sounding boards or welcome distractions during the pandemic. Your support means the world to me. Doo-Hwan van Gennip 2 Table of contents 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................. 6 1.1 Background .............................................................................................................................................................. 6 1.2 Research problem .................................................................................................................................................. 6 1.3 Thesis outline .......................................................................................................................................................... 8 2. Theoretical Framework .......................................................................................................................................... 9 2.1 Shrinkage and peripheralisation ..................................................................................................................... 9 2.2 Consequences of shrinkage ............................................................................................................................ 10 2.3 The limits of growth .......................................................................................................................................... 11 2.4 Planning for shrinkage ..................................................................................................................................... 13 2.4.1 Post-growth planning for shrinkage .................................................................................................. 15 2.4.2 Dutch regional planning and planning for shrinkage .................................................................. 16 2.5 Storytelling, framing and planning .............................................................................................................. 18 2.6 Conceptual model ............................................................................................................................................... 19 3. Methodology .............................................................................................................................................................. 21 3.1 Case-study design ............................................................................................................................................... 21 3.1.1 Case boundaries .......................................................................................................................................... 21 3.1.2 Case-selection .............................................................................................................................................. 21 3.2 Research design ................................................................................................................................................... 22 3.2.1 Operationalisation of stories ................................................................................................................. 22 3.2.2 Data collection methods .......................................................................................................................... 22 3.3 Sample description and data analysis ........................................................................................................ 23 3.4 Ethical considerations ...................................................................................................................................... 24 4. Results ........................................................................................................................................................................... 25 4.1 Case description: Province of Groningen .................................................................................................. 25 4.1.1 Population decline and ageing .............................................................................................................. 25 4.1.2 Amenities under pressure ...................................................................................................................... 25 4.1.3 An oversized housing stock .................................................................................................................... 26 4.2 Stories about shrinkage.................................................................................................................................... 26 4.2.1 Municipality of Stadskanaal ................................................................................................................... 27 4.2.2 Municipality of Delfzijl ............................................................................................................................. 30 4.2.3 Province of Groningen .............................................................................................................................. 32 5. Discussion .................................................................................................................................................................... 34 5.1. Framing of shrinkage ....................................................................................................................................... 34 5.2 Liveable for whom? ............................................................................................................................................ 35 5.3 The idyll of shrinkage ........................................................................................................................................ 36 6. Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................................... 38 3 7. Reflection ..................................................................................................................................................................... 40 References: ........................................................................................................................................................................ 41 Appendix A: Interview Guide ..................................................................................................................................... 48 Appendix B: Informed consent form ....................................................................................................................... 49 Appendix C: Coding tree ..............................................................................................................................................