Southern Staffordshire Districts Housing Needs Study and SHMA Update Final Report Cannock Chase District Council Lichfield District Council Tamworth Borough Council 10 May 2012 41022/MW/CRO/0 This document is formatted for double sided printing. © Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners Ltd 2011. Trading as Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners. All Rights Reserved. Registered Office: 14 Regent's Wharf All Saints Street London N1 9RL All plans within this document produced by NLP are based upon Ordnance Survey mapping with the permission of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office. © Crown Copyright reserved. Licence number AL50684A Southern Staffordshire Districts Housing Needs Study HEaDROOM Results Contents Executive Summary 1.0 Introduction 9 Background to the Study 9 Policy Obligation to Establish Housing Needs 10 Approach 12 Structure of the Report 13 2.0 Southern Staffordshire Context and Trends 15 Introduction 15 Challenges 16 Demographic Trends 17 Housing Trends 28 Economic Trends 37 3.0 Establishing a Gross Housing Requirement 42 Scenarios – Assumptions and Approach 42 Demographic Scenarios 47 Economic Factors 52 Housing Factors 56 Summary 58 4.0 Policy and Delivery 61 Vision for Change 61 Delivery Opportunities and Constraints 65 Land Supply 71 Housing Delivery and Viability 73 Housing Supply and the Mortgage Availability Index 73 Summary 83 5.0 Defining a Local Housing Requirement 85 Introduction 85 Summary of Scenarios 85 Appropriateness of Scenarios 88 Emerging Housing Requirement 90 Conclusions and Recommendations 94 6.0 Affordable Housing Need 95 Introduction 95 Data Sources for Stages One and Two 96 Current Housing Need (Stage 1) 100 Future Housing Need (Stage 2) 104 2106894-1 Southern Staffordshire Districts Housing Needs Study 7.0 Supply of Affordable Housing 108 Introduction 108 Affordable Housing Supply (Stage 3) 108 8.0 Affordable Housing Requirements 112 Introduction 112 Estimate of Net Affordable Housing Need 112 Housing Requirements 115 Housing Requirements of Specific Groups in Need 123 9.0 Key Issues for Future Policy 140 Introduction 140 Impact of Changes in House Prices and Market Rents 140 Impact of the Affordable Rent Model 142 Suggested Affordable Housing Requirements 154 10.0 Housing Requirements by Size, Type and Sub-Area 160 Introduction 160 Housing Requirements Split by Size and Type 160 Defining a Sub-Housing Market Area Split 167 11.0 Conclusions and Recommendations 180 P2 2274725v5 Southern Staffordshire Districts Housing Needs Study HEaDROOM Results Figures4 Figure 1.1 NLP HEaDROOM model 11 Figure 2.1 Sub-Areas within Cannock Chase, Lichfield and Tamworth 15 Figure 2.2 IMD 2010 Southern Staffordshire Districts 16 Figure 2.3 Mid-Year Population Estimates for Cannock Chase, Lichfield and Tamworth Districts 18 Figure 2.4 Average Household Sizes in Cannock Chase, Lichfield and Tamworth Districts 1981 to 2008 18 Figure 2.5 CLG Household Forecasts for Cannock Chase, Lichfield and Tamworth Districts, 1981-2008 19 Figure 2.6 Net Internal and International Migration in Cannock Chase, Lichfield and Tamworth 1998-2010 20 Figure 2.7 Net Migration in Cannock Chase, Lichfield and Tamworth 1998-2010 20 Figure 2.8 Internal domestic migration flows to and from Cannock Chase, Lichfield and Tamworth, 2010 21 Figure 2.9 Age Profile of Migrants for the three districts of Cannock Chase, Lichfield and Tamworth 23 Figure 2.10 Profile of Domestic Migrants in and out of Cannock Chase, Lichfield and Tamworth 24 Figure 2.11 Southern Staffordshire districts Baseline Demographic Profiles (2010) 25 Figure 2.12 Southern Staffordshire districts Baseline Population Profiles (2010) 26 Figure 2.13 Total Fertility Rate for Cannock Chase, Lichfield and Tamworth, 1982-2009 27 Figure 2.14 Age Standardised Mortality Rate for Cannock Chase, Lichfield and Tamworth, 2001-2010 28 Figure 2.15 Southern Staffordshire Districts Long Term Housing Data – Completions/Conversions 29 Figure 2.16 Waiting List and Affordable Housing Completions 2001-2011 32 Figure 2.17 Southern Staffordshire districts - Tenure Breakdown (2001) 33 Figure 2.18 Housing Tenure Including Regional and National Averages) 34 Figure 2.19 Vacancy Levels (% of total stock) 34 Figure 2.20 Housing Stock – Mean House Prices 35 Figure 2.21 House Price/Income Ratio in Southern Staffordshire 36 Figure 2.22 Annual Job Growth (%) 1998-2010 38 Figure 2.23 Commuting Flows 39 Figure 2.24 Labour Force Ratio for Cannock Chase, Lichfield and Tamworth 40 Figure 3.1 Demographic Factors Summary 52 Figure 3.2 Economic Factors Summary 54 Figure 3.3 Housing Factors Summary 58 Figure 3.4 Dwelling implications (2006-28) 59 Figure 4.1 Housing market: property sales based on Land Registry data, 2007-based 77 Figure 4.2 Mortgage Availability Index for Cannock Chase 81 Figure 4.3 Mortgage Availability Index for Lichfield 82 Figure 4.4 Mortgage Availability Index for Tamworth 82 Figure 5.1 Summary of Scenarios 85 Figure 5.2 Projected Population Change in Southern Staffordshire 86 2106894-1 Southern Staffordshire Districts Housing Needs Study Figure 5.3 Natural Change Implications of each Scenario 87 Figure 5.4 Net Migration Implications of each Scenario 88 Figure 5.5 Preferred Range of Scenarios 91 Figure 9.1 Cannock Chase Affordability 144 Figure 9.2 Lichfield Affordability 145 Figure 9.3 Tamworth Affordability 145 Figure 9.4 % of Existing Households Unable to Afford Existing Social Rent or 80% Market Rent 146 Figure 9.5 % of Newly Forming Households Unable to Afford Existing Social Rent or 80% Market Rent 147 Figure 9.6 Households Unable to Access Market Housing – Affordability 148 Figure 9.7 Households Unable to Access Market Housing – Cannock Chase 150 Figure 9.8 Households Unable to Access Market Housing – Lichfield 150 Figure 9.9 Households Unable to Access Market Housing – Tamworth 151 Figure 9.10 Households Unable to Access Market Housing – Affordability 156 Figure 10.1 Modelled ‘need’ compared with 2001 Census ‘actual’ stock (excluding housing with care) 163 Figure 11.1 Potential division of District-wide housing requirements 181 Tables4 Table 2.1 Affordable Housing Completions 31 Table 2.2 Lower Quartile Private Sector Rent Levels (£ per month) 36 Table 2.3 Private Sector Rent Levels – Range (£ per month) 37 Table 4.1 Mortgage Case Studies 75 Table 4.2 Mortgage Outcomes 75 Table 4.3 Identified 'At Risk' SHLAA sites in Southern Staffordshire based on the MAI 79 Table 6.1 Summary of Data Required for Stages One and Two 96 Table 6.2 Affordability Test Results – Proportion of Existing Households Unable to Afford Market Housing 99 Table 6.3 Affordability Test Results – Proportion of Newly Forming Households Unable to Afford Market Housing 99 Table 6.4 Homeless Households and those in Temporary Accommodation 101 Table 6.5 Estimated Unsuitable Housing - Calculation 102 Table 6.6 Estimated Unsuitable Housing – Tenure Breakdown 102 Table 6.7 Estimated Unsuitable Housing – Reason Unsuitable 103 Table 6.8 Current (Backlog) Need - Gross 104 Table 6.9 Number of Newly Forming Households unable to buy or rent in the market (annual) 105 Table 6.10 Existing Households Falling into Need 106 Table 6.11 Total Newly Arising Housing Need (Gross per year) 107 Table 7.1 Summary of Data Required for Stage Three 108 Table 7.2 Supply of New Affordable Units 109 P2 2274725v5 Southern Staffordshire Districts Housing Needs Study HEaDROOM Results Table 7.3 Current Supply of Affordable Housing 110 Table 7.4 Future Annual Supply of Social re-lets 110 Table 7.5 Future Supply of Intermediate Affordable Housing 111 Table 7.6 Annual Supply of Affordable Housing 111 Table 8.1 Net Annual Housing Need 112 Table 8.2 Gross Need: Geographical Breakdown 114 Table 8.3 Estimated Unsuitable housing – by tenure 114 Table 8.4 Households on the Housing Register – Number of Bedrooms Required 115 Table 8.5 Affordable Housing General Needs Lettings in 2010/11 – Number of Bedrooms in Property 115 Table 8.6 Methodology for Assessing House Size Requirements 116 Table 8.7 Affordable Housing Requirements – Broken down by Dwelling Type 117 Table 8.8 Required Split between 3 and 4 Bedroom Properties – Identified by Housing Register 118 Table 8.9 Households which need or are likely to move in next 5 years 118 Table 8.10 Households which need or are likely to move in next 5 years - affordability 119 Table 8.11 Type of Property Respondents Would Like to move to 119 Table 8.12 Type of Property Respondents are likely to move to 120 Table 8.13 Number of Bedrooms Respondents would like to have 121 Table 8.14 Number of Bedrooms Respondents are likely to have 121 Table 8.15 Tenure of Housing Respondents would like to have 122 Table 8.16 Tenure of Housing Respondents are likely to have 122 Table 8.17 Projected Change in the number of Families with Children 2011-2028 125 Table 8.18 Predicted Number of Families with Children in 2028 125 Table 8.19 Estimated Unsuitable housing – Families with children 126 Table 8.20 Projected Change in Number of Households headed by Older People (aged 60 +) 2011-2028 127 Table 8.21 Predicted Number of Older People in 2028 127 Table 8.22 Net Requirement for new FlexiCare Housing Units identified by Staffordshire FlexiCare Housing Strategy 2010- 2015 129 Table 8.23 Estimated Unsuitable housing – Older People 130 Table 8.24 Estimated Unsuitable housing – Disabled Residents 132 Table 8.25 Households Containing a Household Member with a long-term illness, health problem or disability – homes have been adapted or purpose built for a person with a long-term illness, heath problem or disability 133 Table 8.26 Adaptations Required 133 Table 8.27 Ethnic