Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Dhaka Transport Coordination Authority (DTCA) The Project on the Revision and Updating of the Strategic Transport Plan for Dhaka SUMMARY Final Report November 2016 Almec Corporation Oriental Consultants Global Co., Ltd. Katahira & Engineers International Table of Contents 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background ·························································································· 1 1.2 Goals and Objectives ············································································· 2 1.3 Project Area ·························································································· 2 1.4 Related Agencies and Implementation Structures ········································· 3 2. CURRENT URBAN STRUCTURE & SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE 2.1 Description of the Project Area ································································· 4 2.2 Existing Land Use Patterns ······································································ 7 3. CURRENT URBAN TRANSPORT SYSTEM 3.1 Non-motorized and Motorized Transport Modes ·········································· 11 3.2 Public Transport ··················································································· 13 3.3 Urban Road Network ············································································· 16 4. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITION 4.1 Natural Environment ·············································································· 18 4.2 Natural Disasters and Flooding ································································ 21 5. FINANCIAL STRUCTURES AND BUDGETING 5.1 Current Status of National Budget ···························································· 23 5.2 Financial Resources ·············································································· 25 6. URBAN DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT 6.1 Vision and Key Spatial Development Strategies ·········································· 26 6.2 Urban Development Scenario ································································· 27 6.3 Future Traffic Demand ··········································································· 36 7. URBAN TRANSPORT NETWORK DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO 7.1 RSTP Overall Transport Development Policy ·············································· 39 7.2 Land Use and Transport Integration ·························································· 42 7.3 Roads ································································································ 43 7.4 Public Transport ··················································································· 44 7.5 Traffic Management and Safety ······························································· 44 7.6 Financing Capacity of the Government for Investment in the Transport Sector ·· 46 8. FORMULATION OF THE URBAN TRANSPORT MASTER PLAN 8.1 Development of the RSTP Urban Transportation Master Plan ························ 49 8.2 Road Network Development Plan ···························································· 50 8.3 Public Transportation Plan ······································································ 60 8.4 Bus Transport System ··········································································· 63 8.5 Traffic Management and Traffic Safety ······················································ 66 8.6 Inland Waterways ················································································· 69 9. EVALUATION OF THE MASTER PLAN 9.1 Results of Economic Evaluation and Financial Evaluation ····························· 70 9.2 RSTP 2035 Environmental Evaluation of Projects ······································· 71 9.3 Project Evaluation ················································································· 72 10. IMPLEMENTATION PROGRAM 10.1 Overall Implementation Strategy ······························································ 75 10.2 Implementation Schedule and Responsible Agency ····································· 76 10.3 Investment Plan ··················································································· 78 10.4 Short-term Action Plan ··········································································· 80 11. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 11.1 Conclusion ·························································································· 83 11.2 Recommendations ················································································ 85 List of Figures Figure 1.1 Project Areas ························································································ 2 Figure 1.2 Project Organization Chart ······································································ 3 Figure 2.1 Annual Average Growth Rate by Union in 2001–2011 ··································· 6 Figure 2.2 Existing Land Uses in Greater Dhaka Area ················································· 7 Figure 2.3 Land Uses within RAJUK Administrative Area, 2013 ····································· 9 Figure 3.1 Number of Private Cars in the GDA, 2001–2013 ········································· 12 Figure 3.2 Share of Buses and Minibuses in GDA, 2001–2013 ····································· 14 Figure 3.3 Major Road Network within RAJUK Administrative Area ································ 17 Figure 6.1 Conceptual Structure Plan for RDP Area, 2016–2035 ··································· 29 Figure 6.2 Proposed Spatial and Transport Framework for RAJUK Area ························· 31 Figure 6.3 Population within RAJUK Area by District ·················································· 34 Figure 6.4 Population Densities within RAJUK Area in 2014 and 2035 ··························· 34 Figure 6.5 Estimated Composition of Income Groups ················································· 36 Figure 6.6 Modal Share of Intercity Trips in 2025 and 2035 ·········································· 37 Figure 6.7 Number of Trips by Mode in 2025 and 2035 excluding Intracity Trips ··············· 37 Figure 6.8 Desire Lines in 2025 and 2035 ································································ 38 Figure 7.1 Indicative Target for Modal Share for 2035 ················································· 39 Figure 7.2 Major Features and Policies of RSTP ······················································· 41 Figure 7.3 Population Density of Trend Scenario and RSTP Scenario ···························· 42 Figure 8.1 RSTP, Urban Transport Master Plan ························································· 49 Figure 8.2 3 Rings and 8 Radials Road Network System in RAJUK Area ························ 50 Figure 8.3 Proposed Road Network in RAJUK area ··················································· 51 Figure 8.4 Proposed Road Networks ······································································· 52 Figure 8.5 Current1 Construction Status of the Three Ring Roads ································· 53 Figure 8.6 Highway Assignment Results for 2025 and 2035 ········································· 54 Figure 8.7 Investment Schedule for Urban Roads ······················································ 56 Figure 8.8 Network ······························································································ 61 Figure 8.9 MRT/BRT Network in 2035 ····································································· 61 Figure 8.10 Transit Assignment Results of Master Plan Case in 2025 and 2035 ················ 62 Figure 8.11 Traffic Management Improvement Directions ·············································· 68 Figure 10.1 Implementation Schedule of MRT/BRT Projects ·········································· 77 Figure 10.2 The High Priority Project ········································································ 82 Figure 10.3 Eastern Fringe ····················································································· 82 List of Tables Table 2.1 GRDP in the Study Area ·········································································· 5 Table 2.2 Greater Dhaka Population and Area by District ············································ 5 Table 2.3 Per Capita Income by District, 1999 ··························································· 6 Table 2.4 Existing Land Uses in the RDP Area1 ························································ 8 Table 2.5 SWOT Analysis on Land Use in GDA and within RAJUK Administrative Area ···· 10 Table 4.1 National Ambient Air Quality Standards for Bangladesh ································ 20 Table 4.2 Measured Noise Levels in Some Sensitive Areas of Dhaka ··························· 21 Table 5.1 Recent Trends in Consolidated Receipts and Expenditures ··························· 23 Table 5.2 Recent Trend in the Government Revenue Budget, 2004–2013 ····················· 24 Table 5.3 Development Expenditure by Sector, 2004–2013 ········································ 25 Table 5.4 Historical Trend of Financing for Development Expenditures ························· 25 Table 6.1 Vision and Objectives of Regional Development Planning ····························· 28 Table 6.2 Urban Hierarchy in Regional Development Planning ···································· 28 Table 6.3 Comparison of Population Estimates ························································ 32 Table 6.4 Selected Future Population Framework ····················································· 33 Table 6.5 Summary of Forecast Population ····························································· 33 Table 6.6 Employed Population by Industrial Sector