Nationally agreed contribution document towards the new climate change agreement Iraq 10/11/2015 Abbreviations BAU Business as Usual CCC Climate Change Center GHGs Greenhouses Gases UN United Nations UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change The Iraqi INDC does not constitute legally binding pledges upon Iraq, but rather a statement of national contributions including actions taken related to climate change. The submission of Iraq’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) report is pursuant with the decision adopted by UNFCCC COP 19 in November 2013. The preparation of the Iraqi INDC adopted a collaborative and consultative process and involved key ministries, departments and stakeholders following the UNFCCC guidelines on designing and preparing INDCs. Iraq’s commitment to addressing climate change has been demonstrated by the timely actions of Iraqi authorities to prepare this report. Iraq calls on developed country Parties to fulfill their commitments in supporting developing and fragile states to tackle the adverse impacts of climate change. Iraq’s preparation of this INDC report has been technically facilitated by UNDP under the GEF-funded project “Iraq’s Nationally Determined Contributions to UNFCCC 2015 Agreement." Contents Executive Summary ....................................................................................................... 1 National circumstances ................................................................................................. 3 Mitigation Scenarios………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….4 Adaptation action ........................................................................................................11 Adaptation action for the water sector .......................................................................12 Possible threats.....................................................................................................13 Pressing water issues .............................................................................................14 Adaptation action for agriculture ...............................................................................14 Adaptation Action for Biodiversity Conservation ..........................................................14 Adaptation in Health Sector .......................................................................................15 Impact of Sea-level Rise in Tourism ............................................................................16 International Support................................................................................................16 Obligatory Principles ....................................................................................................17 Executive Summary Iraq is firmly committed to the UNFCCC 2015 Climate Agreement with an objective to significantly reduce GHG emissions and to keep the global warming below two degrees Celsius (2°C). This report is prepared in response to the invitation of the 19th Conference of the Parties to the Convention to countries to prepare their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). Since becoming a signatory to the UNFCCC, Iraq has been undertaking efforts to fulfill its commitments towards the Convention. Iraq has established a dedicated institution to assess its GHG inventory, and devise national strategies on climate change mitigation and adaptation. Iraq’s INDC is an outcome of collective actions captured through a broad stakeholder consultation process. Iraq’s national policies, strategies and plans have been reviewed, which helped to identify the mitigation and adaptation priorities of the country. Notably among them is Iraq’s Integrated National Strategy for Energy and National Environmental Strategy & Action Plan (NESAP), which helped to determine potential national contributions for the stated mitigation and adaptation measures. The report has taken into consideration the ongoing violent conflict and economic stagnation, which pose significant challenges to sustainable development in the country. Despite difficult challenges, the Government of Iraq demonstrates its commitment and lays out an economy- wide plan to cut GHG emission by around 14% from the business as usual scenario over the period from 2020 until 2035. Iraq has made this emission reduction commitment at a time when the country is at the forefront of fighting the world's fiercest terrorism on its land. As explained in the graph below, the report presents the emission reduction plan in two ways. First, a reduction of 1% of economy-wide emissions by 2035, taking into consideration economic prospects within the context of ongoing efforts to achieve security, peace and economic resources. Second, the report presents Iraq’s plan to further reduce emissions by 13% by the year 2035 if the required technical and financial support can be made available from the Convention funds and international partnerships, which are critical to ensure the well-being of the Iraqi population in 2035. 1 Alongside the proposed mitigation efforts, the report presents Iraq’s commitment to address the impacts of climate change adopting a multi-sectoral and multi-stakeholder approach. International support and cooperation will be important to roll out a comprehensive national adaptation plan, which will aim to protect the lives and livelihoods of the Iraqi population facing climate extremes and to ensure food, water and energy security of the country. The report highlights the key adaptation measures that are necessary to be undertaken in the challenging national context. In the face of climate change impacts, Iraq will encounter a host of complex and difficult challenges, which include water security, land degradation, desertification, loss of vegetation and bio-diversity, salinity, etc., which will pose a significant hindrance to Iraq’s ability to become a resilient nation. 2 National circumstances Iraq is one of the Middle Eastern countries most vulnerable to the growing impacts of climate change, and this has started causing significant adverse effects on the Iraqi population and society. Iraq has been facing real and unique challenges stemming from the markedly rising temperature and declining precipitation, as well as other extreme phenomena caused by climate change. Studies have confirmed that climate change will have catastrophic impacts on water, agriculture, health and biodiversity because of their structural fragility, as well as a lack of institutional and technical capacities and other actions needed to mitigate these impacts and reduce climate change risks. On the other side, national economic sectors are suffering from slow growth, which has become deeper with the unprecedented increase of temperatures leading to further losses in electric power. This has in turn caused a sharp decline in the kWh per capita. The highest power generation levels in Iraq throughout the past four decades have never ensured 24-hour coverage for the Iraqis. The total production of electricity at the moment is 11,000 MW, while the country’s actual need is 23,000 MW, not including the Kurdistan Region, and this is expected to increase to 42,000 MW in 2030. The net kWh per capita in Iraq in 2013 and 2014 was nearly 1,375 KWh/year, compared to 8,000 KWh/year in the neighboring countries. Moreover, given climate circumstances, declining water levels and military operations, hydroelectric generation plants have been affected and their capacity has dropped from 1,846 MW to only 400 MW. Furthermore, in 2014, the economy and businesses collapsed and were almost totally disrupted in around one third of Iraq’s territory, including large towns in western and northern Iraq because of refugees and internally displaced peoples (IDPs) when ISIS invaded the area. The International Organization for Migration has, since January 2014, recorded approximately 528,601 IDP families or 3,171,606 persons. In spite of Iraq’s population growth throughout the past four decades and the globally increased CO2 emissions, Iraq’s economy was not able to meet the society’s needs and declined to almost zero in 1991 and 2003 because of the wars (Figure 1 shows the fluctuation of industrial activity in Iraq from 1960 to 2015). The public transport sector in Iraq witnessed acute deterioration after 1991. The number of planes decreased from 63 in 1980 to 2 planes in 2003. The number of train travels decreased significantly after 2003, and the number of double-decker buses inside Baghdad decreased from 300 in 2002 to 84 in 2014. The reduction in public transport sector is estimated at 90%. As a result, the private transport sector grew by 80%, leading to changed transport mode – one-passenger cars – because of the security circumstances, as well as security and social considerations. Although its emissions only constitute 0.2% of global GHGs, according to the UN data from 1990 to 2011, Iraq believes that all countries should contribute to the solution of climate change under the UNFCCC principles, which are based on common but differentiated responsibilities according to the principle of equity. Soon after its accession to the UNFCCC, Iraq started to implement strategic projects and studies to introduce clean and renewable energies and environmental carbon management and to increase green areas. Also, projects to use gas as fuel for vehicles were initiated in addition to other leading projects in these and many other national sectors, including a project to shift to solar energy to light many