University of Montana ScholarWorks at University of Montana Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers Graduate School 2014 Assessing the Determinants Facilitating Local Vulnerabilities and Adaptive Capacities to Climate Change Impacts in High Mountain Areas: A Case Study of Northern Ladakh, India Kimiko Nygaard Barrett The University of Montana Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.umt.edu/etd Let us know how access to this document benefits ou.y Recommended Citation Barrett, Kimiko Nygaard, "Assessing the Determinants Facilitating Local Vulnerabilities and Adaptive Capacities to Climate Change Impacts in High Mountain Areas: A Case Study of Northern Ladakh, India" (2014). Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers. 4395. https://scholarworks.umt.edu/etd/4395 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at ScholarWorks at University of Montana. It has been accepted for inclusion in Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks at University of Montana. For more information, please contact [email protected]. ASSESSING THE DETERMINANTS FACILITATING LOCAL VULNERABILITIES AND ADAPTIVE CAPACITIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN HIGH MOUNTAIN ENVIRONMENTS: A CASE STUDY OF NORTHERN LADAKH, INDIA By KIMIKO NYGAARD BARRETT Master of Science, Earth Sciences – Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, 2008 Bachelor of Arts, Political Science – Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, 2006 PhD Dissertation presented in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Forestry and Conservation Sciences The University of Montana Missoula, MT December 2014 Approved by: Sandy Ross, Dean of The Graduate School Graduate School Dr. Keith Bosak, Chair Society & Conservation Dr. Jill Belsky Society & Conservation Dr. Sarah Halvorson Geography Dr. Kimber Haddix-McKay Anthropology Dr. Dane Scott Society & Conservation © COPYRIGHT By Kimiko Nygaard Barrett 2014 All Rights Reserved ii ABSTRACT Barrett, Kimiko Nygaard, Ph.D., December 2014 Forestry & Conservation Sciences Assessing the Determinants Facilitating Local Vulnerabilities and Adaptive Capacities to Climate Change Impacts in High Mountain Environments: A Case Study of Northern Ladakh, India Dr. Keith Bosak: Chair, Department of Society and Conservation Climate change is increasingly redefining the dialectic exchange between human systems and ecological processes. While the rhetoric of climate change is articulated within broad arenas of governance and policy, the realities of climate change are experienced at the local scale. Effective adaptation measures must therefore be commensurate with local resources, needs and objectives while remaining aligned with larger decision-making efforts. The impacts of climate change are heterogeneous and vary with geographic context. Biophysical parameters interface with socioeconomic and political forces to greatly influence the outcome of climate-related risks at the local level. In the high mountains of the western Himalayas for example, climate change is tangibly influencing precipitation patterns, glacial movement and the occurrence of extreme weather events. Rather than work in isolation, these adverse effects exacerbate ongoing stresses related to chronic development and demographic issues. Assessing the nature of biophysical and social vulnerability to climate change, and the initial conditions that differently expose some groups of people over others to climate change impacts, can correspondingly aid in the identification of entry points for adaptation and response planning. This research draws from theoretical traditions couched within geography, political ecology, natural hazards and risk management and climate ethics to assess the multi-scalar factors that aggregate at the local level to shape climate change outcomes. This unique conceptual background directly informs a mixed-methodological design that integrates surveys, climate trend modeling and geospatial mapping to evaluate how climate change is unfolding on- the-ground to influence local engagement around climate change response. In doing so, the key climatic and non-climatic drivers propelling initial conditions of vulnerability are identified as are the determinants facilitating opportunities for adaptation. Research findings suggest access and availability of future water resources will work in tandem with transformations in the wider political economy to significantly determine the long-term ability for many impacted mountain communities to live and thrive. Traditional assumptions of vulnerability are challenged and the need to consider cultural frameworks of social resilience, sense of place and community cohesion are advanced. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS There are numerous people I wish to thank for helping steer this dissertation from initial inception through to fruition. I am deeply appreciative of the University of Montana and the College of Forestry and Conservation for providing me with the resources, funding and support throughout the lifespan of this project. Foremost amongst these ranks is my eternal gratitude to my advisor, Dr. Keith Bosak, for taking me on as an inquisitive graduate student and turning me into a legitimate scientist and researcher. His continual availability and encouragement as an advisor was essential in nurturing an undeveloped idea into a tangible scientific enterprise. As my mentor, professor and friend, I thank him for his patience and collaboration. In addition, the assembly of fellow committee members made for a stellar team of mountain experts and Himalayan gurus. While individually refined in their area of science, collectively Drs. Jill Belsky, Sarah Halvorson, Scott Dane and Kimber McKay motivated me to look deeper at the social-ecological dynamics defining the world’s most majestic and unique mountainous landscapes. I thank them for their time, commitment and efforts. This research would never had transpired without the dedicated energies of local Ladakhi villagers. In particular, I would like to thank Tninlas Norboo and his family for allowing my husband and myself to share their home and life with them. They provided perspective into the ways of Himalayan mountain culture and showed us the depth of Ladakhi hospitality and warmth. Additionally, I would like to thank Gyatso for his assistance in the translation of the research materials and being our fixer on the ground. Gyatso’s ceaseless enthusiasm for life and gregarious approach towards visitors has made him a memorable and central figure throughout this research process. And to the students of Domkhar Barma and Sonam Rinchen, thank you for giving us the opportunity to laugh, inspire and experience being both the teacher and the student in an unfamiliar setting. Graduate support and funding for this research was essential and was gratefully provided by the University of Montana Office of the Provost, UM College of Forestry and Conservation, the American Alpine Club and the Montana Institute on Ecosystems. Ultimately, none of this would have been possible without the incessant support and love from my family, especially my parents, brother and grandmother. From a young age, they instilled in me an unwavering love for the outdoors and natural landscapes, which continue to provide the backdrop to all my life endeavors. Lastly, I owe the completion of this project to my husband Bradley Barrett who has been my guide, traveling companion, best friend and continual ally, thank you. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 1: Introduction ...............................................................................................................1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................1 Structure of Dissertation ...............................................................................................................3 Research Setting: Climate Change in the Western Himalayas ....................................................5 Project Study Area ....................................................................................................................9 Comparative Case Study Selection ........................................................................................12 Chapter 2: Literature Review and Conceptual Background ..................................................17 Introduction ................................................................................................................................17 Social-Ecological Linkages within Scale and Political Economy .............................................19 The Production of Space and Structuration of Scale ..............................................................20 The Social Production of Nature ............................................................................................24 Response and Engagement with Climate Change Impacts ........................................................26 Theoretical Climate Change Lexicon: Adaptation, Vulnerability and Resilience .................27 Natural Hazards, Extreme Climatic Events and Risk Management .......................................36 Joint Approaches: Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments ..............................................38 The Ethics and Justice of a Climate Change Framework ...........................................................41 Research and Methodological