View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Calhoun, Institutional Archive of the Naval Postgraduate School Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 2006-06 Has Ukraine's path to democracy improved from independence to the Orange Revolution? Vaughan, John T. Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/2694 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS HAS UKRAINE'S PATH TO DEMOCRACY IMPROVED FROM INDEPENDENCE TO THE ORANGE REVOLUTION? by John T. Vaughan June 2006 Thesis Co Advisors: Mikhail Tsypkin Anne Clunan Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED June 2006 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS Has Ukraine's path to democracy improved from Independence to the Orange Revolution? 6. AUTHOR(S) John T. Vaughan 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER Monterey, CA 93943-5000 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING N/A AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) This thesis seeks to identify if Ukraine is transitioning to a democracy from an authoritarian regime after the breakup of the Soviet Union and if so, measure Ukraine's democratic progress using specific democratization criteria from the 1990 parliamentary elections to the 2004 Orange Revolution. A free and fair electoral process involving multiple political parties, genuine power resident with elected officials, and executive power both constrained constitutionally and held accountable by other government branches (i.e. the Verkhovna Rada and the judiciary), will be used to measure Ukraine's democratic transition. Historical analysis of democracy's progress will be examined during the presidencies of Leonid Kravchuk (1991- 1994), Leonid Kuchma (1994-2004) and Viktor Yushchenko (2004-Present) discerning if democracy has progressed or diminished over the past fifteen years. 14. SUBJECT TERMS Ukraine, democracy, executive power, constitution, judiciary, U.S. 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 77 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18.SECURITY 19.SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UL NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited HAS UKRAINE'S PATH TO DEMOCRACY IMPROVED FROM INDEPENDENCE TO THE ORANGE REVOLUTION? John T. Vaughan Major, United States Marine Corps B.A. University of West Georgia, 1993 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL June 2006 Author: John T. Vaughan Approved by: Anne Clunan Thesis Co-Advisor Mikhail Tsypkin Thesis Co-Advisor Douglas Porch Chairman, Department of National Security Affairs iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT This thesis seeks to identify if Ukraine is transitioning to a democracy from an authoritarian regime after the breakup of the Soviet Union, and if so, to measure Ukraine's democratic progress applying traits of democratization from the 1990 parliamentary elections to the 2004 Orange Revolution. A free and fair electoral process involving multiple political parties, representational power of elected officials, and executive power, both constrained constitutionally and held accountable by other government branches (i.e. the Verkhovna Rada and the judiciary), will be used to measure Ukraine's democratic transition. Historical analysis of democracy's progress will be examined during the presidencies of Leonid Kravchuk (1991-1994), Leonid Kuchma (1994-2004) and Viktor Yushchenko (2004-Present), respectively, to discern if democracy has progressed or diminished over the past fifteen years. Ukraine's democratic establishment could be the catalyst to spread democracy throughout the region. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................1 A. ARGUMENT....................................................................................................2 B. LITERATURE REVIEW: WHAT IS A DEMOCRACY?..........................2 C. METHODOLOGY AND SOURCES.............................................................7 II. UKRAINE'S BEGINNING UNDER LEONID KRAVCHUK ................................9 A. LEONID KRAVCHUK: FROM SUPREME COUNCIL TO PRESIDENT (1990-1994)..............................................................................10 B. FREEDOM SCORES MEASURING UKRAINE'S DEMOCRACY UNDER LEONID KRAVCHUK..................................................................11 1. Rising Public Participation and Contestation as Political Parties Form.......................................................................................11 a. Emergence of the Democratic Bloc........................................12 b. Ukraine's First Presidential Election.....................................14 2. Kravchuk Sheds USSR Influence but not CPU's............................16 3. Executive Power Undefined and Shared Among Branches ...........18 C. CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................20 III. MATURITY OF DEMOCRACY UNDER LEONID KUCHMA .........................23 A. LEONID KUCHMA: FROM PRIME MINISTER TO PRESIDENT (1994-2004)......................................................................................................23 B. FREEDOM SCORES MEASURING UKRAINE'S DEMOCRACY UNDER LEONID KUCHMA.......................................................................24 C. BERTELSMANN TRANSFORMATION INDEX COMPARISON ........25 D. ELECTION PITFALLS CLOUDING DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION ................................................................................................26 1. Contestation Declines as Free Elections Dissolve............................26 a. The Left Remains Dominant in the Verkhovna Rada in 1994/1998 Elections ................................................................27 b. 1994 Presidential Elections ....................................................28 2. Kuchma's Political Agenda and Return to Authoritarianism .......32 3. Executive Power Circumvents the Constitution .............................34 E. CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................36 IV. THE ORANGE REVOLUTION AND VIKTOR YUSHCHENKO'S VISION...39 A. VIKTOR YUSHCHENKO (DECEMBER 2004-PRESENT)....................39 B. FREEDOM SCORES MEASURING UKRAINE'S DEMOCRACY UNDER VIKTOR YUSHCHENKO ............................................................40 1. Presidential election of 2004 and the Verkhovna Rada Elections in 2006: Different Beginnings, Similar Outcomes ..........40 a. Unfair Second Round Presidential Elections Mobilize Opposition................................................................................41 b. The Verkhovna Rada Elections in 2006 Earn ODIHR Accolades.................................................................................44 2. The Oligarch's Occasional Hand of Influence ................................45 vii 3. Constitution of Ukraine Retains Yushchenko's Executive Power...................................................................................................47 C. CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................48 V. CONCLUSION ..........................................................................................................51 A. HOW HAS UKRAINE TRANSITIONED DEMOCRATICALLY?........51 1. Democratic Evolution of the Ukrainian Election Process Since 1991......................................................................................................51 2. Genuine Power or Outside Actor's Influence?................................52 3. Executive Power Regulated by the Constitution and Held Accountable by Other Government Branches? ..............................53 B. FREEDOM SCORE COMPARISON OF PRESIDENTIAL ADMINISTRATIONS...................................................................................53 C. U.S. POLICY IMPLICATIONS...................................................................55