Regional Responses to U.S.-China Competition in the Indo-Pacific Indonesia Jonah Blank C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR4412z3 For more information on this series, visit www.rand.org/US-PRC-influence Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0558-6 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2021 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: globe: jcrosemann/GettyImages; flags: luzitanija/Adobe Stock Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface The U.S. Department of Defense’s (DoD’s) 2018 National Defense Strategy highlights the important role that U.S. allies and partners play in U.S.-China strategic competition. America’s strong and enduring relationships with its allies and partners offer the United States distinct advantages in long-term competition with China: The United States is not competing with China on its own but instead can draw from allied and partner resources, capabilities, and strengths that far exceed what China can bring to bear. As DoD focuses on long-term strategic competition with China, understanding how U.S. allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific region are responding and adjusting their approaches to China will be crucial to ensuring the success of U.S. strategy. This report on Indonesia is part of a project that aims to understand the perspectives of U.S. allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific as they formulate and implement their responses to China’s more assertive foreign and security policy behavior in the region and to a more competitive U.S.- China relationship. The research team also assesses how DoD (particularly, the U.S. Air Force) can best deepen and improve its ability to work with allies and partners to maintain U.S. advantage in long-term strategic competition with China. The other reports in this series are available at www.rand.org/US-PRC-influence. The research reported here was sponsored by Brig Gen Michael P. Winkler (PACAF/A5/8) and conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE as part of a fiscal year 2019 project titled “Regional Responses to U.S.-China Competition in the Indo- Pacific” that assists the Air Force in evaluating U.S. and Chinese influence and assessing possible Air Force, joint force, and U.S. government options. Research was completed in October 2019. RAND Project AIR FORCE acknowledges that human subject protections (HSP) protocols have been used in the project that produced this report, in accordance with the appropriate statutes and Department of Defense regulations governing HSP. Information provided by subject-matter experts who are rendered anonymous by HSP protocols is solely their own views and does not represent the official policy or position of the Department of the Air Force, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. government. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the Department of the Air Force’s (DAF’s) federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the DAF with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Strategy and Doctrine, Force iii Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; and Resource Management. The research reported here was prepared under contract FA7014-16-D-1000. Additional information about PAF is available on our website: www.rand.org/paf/ This report documents work originally shared with the Department of Air Force on September 26, 2019. The draft report, issued on June 3, 2020, was reviewed by formal peer reviewers and DAF subject-matter experts. iv Contents Preface ............................................................................................................................................ iii Figures............................................................................................................................................ vi Tables ............................................................................................................................................ vii Summary ...................................................................................................................................... viii Acknowledgments .......................................................................................................................... xi Abbreviations ................................................................................................................................ xii 1. Indonesia in the Context of U.S.-China Competition ................................................................. 1 Applying the Project Framework to Indonesia ......................................................................................... 3 Organization of the Report ....................................................................................................................... 7 2. Indonesia’s Geostrategic Importance, Institutional Outlook, and Desire for Nonalignment in Diplomatic and Political Relations ....................................................................................... 8 Indonesia’s Geostrategic Importance ....................................................................................................... 8 Institutional Outlook ............................................................................................................................... 10 Indonesia’s Desire for “Nonalignment” in Diplomatic and Political Relations ..................................... 16 3. Indonesia’s Economic Relationship with China, and Country-by-Country Relationship Sketches .................................................................................................................................. 19 China as Key Trade Partner and Export Destination for Indonesia ....................................................... 19 Behind-the-Scenes Impact: China and Ethnic Chinese Business Interests ............................................ 23 Country-by-Country Sketches of Indonesia’s Relations with Key Asian Nations ................................. 25 4. Assessment and Outlook ........................................................................................................... 40 Indonesia Sees the United States as Its Best Partner, but Limiting Factors Remain .............................. 40 Best Avenues for Partnership Include Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief, Maritime Domain Awareness, and Military Education ................................................................................... 48 Best Approach Is Respect and Patience ................................................................................................. 52 Outlook for U.S.-Indonesia Relations Is Good, but Disruption Is Possible ........................................... 54 5. Options for the United States, U.S. Department of Defense, and U.S. Air Force .................... 56 Options for the United States .................................................................................................................. 56 Options for the U.S. Department of Defense and the U.S. Air Force .................................................... 58 Appendix A. Detailed Framework Variable Coding .................................................................... 61 Appendix B. Overview of Indonesia’s Military ........................................................................... 70 Appendix C. Indonesia’s Security Policymaking ......................................................................... 73 Appendix D. Politics, Public Opinion, Other Sources of Influence, and Outlook ....................... 79 References ..................................................................................................................................... 87 v Figures Figure 1.1. Relative U.S. and Chinese Influence in Indonesia (2018) ............................................ 6 Figure 2.1. Indonesia’s Strategic Location ..................................................................................... 9 Figure 2.2. Natuna Islands ............................................................................................................ 12 vi Tables Table 1.1. Variables for Assessing Relative U.S.-China