THE WAR REPORT 2018 THE SYRIAN ARMED CONFLICT: NEARING THE END ? © ICRC JANUARY 2019 I MARIJA SULCE THE GENEVA ACADEMY A JOINT CENTER OF and interests amid the unrest. The struggle for power in the CONTEXT AND HISTORY OF THE CONFLICT1 region has drawn into the conflict countries such as the US, The Syrian armed conflict began in 2011 as a civil Russia, Turkey, Iran, Israel and many others. To a degree, war, stemming from the Arab Spring protests. The Syrian the conflict has become more international in character, people started protesting in March 2011 in Daara against rather than remaining faithful to its non-international the corruption of President Bashar al-Assad’s government, civil war roots. The conflict is no longer only about Syria’s lack of political freedom and unemployment. The government and Assad’s corruption; in recent years, it has demonstrations took an ugly turn when the regime tried become a pawn in the geopolitical struggles of the Middle to crush the dissent by force.2 After the forceful response East.7 Having said that, the international community has to the demonstrations, protests against the regime erupted played an important role in trying to facilitate peace talks nationwide. The regime’s opponents started taking up between the Assad regime and the opposition groups. One arms and the unrest began its descent into civil war in July example is the Astana talks in 2017, which managed to set 2011, when a group of defectors from the Syrian military up de-escalation zones in Syria, sponsored by Russia, Turkey began forming the Free Syrian Army (FSA) with the aim and Iran,8 as well as the demilitarized zone brokered by of overthrowing President Assad’s regime.3 During the Turkey and Russia in the last remaining rebel stronghold in almost eight years of ensuing civil war, many parties have Idlib in September 2018.9 joined the conflict, including many rebel groups as well Approaching its eighth year, the Syrian war is one of the as other states, highly complicating the war. The FSA with most devastating conflicts of the twenty-first century. So other opposition groups have controlled vast areas of far, it has taken the lives of around half a million people, Syrian territory, including the produced around 5.6 million strategically important city of The political unrest revealed the great refugees and displaced roughly Aleppo, throughout most of the religious divisions within Syrian 6.6 million people within Syrian civil war. An important change communities, of which the largest are territory.10 Nevertheless, as the came when Aleppo was retaken Sunni Muslims, representing around year 2018 has unfolded, there by the Government in 2016.4 74 percent of the population in 2011 has appeared to be a flicker The political unrest revealed of light, suggesting that the the great religious divisions within Syrian communities, of conflict might be entering its final stages. which the largest are Sunni Muslims, representing around 74 percent of the population in 2011. Other Muslim religions, PARTIES TO THE CONFLICTS such as the Alawites, Ismailis and Shia, represented 13 percent, while Christians constituted 10 percent, and Druze 3 percent.5 Religious differences have fueled the conflict PARTIES TO THE INTERNATIONAL ARMED CONFLICTS and have provided a platform for hardline groups, such as Islamic State (IS) to become key players. In 2013 and 2014, IS US-Led Coalition controlled more than 88,000 square kilometres across Iraq The US-led coalition of 77 states was formed in 2014 to and Syria.6 Since then, its power has greatly declined and combat IS in Iraq and Syria.11 The most notable states in the the group is now a shadow of its former self in Syria. coalition are: Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, There has also been a lot of international involvement Italy, Jordan, Morocco, the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, in the conflict, with many players pursuing their own goals Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and, of course, the US. Though the coalition’s purpose is to fight 1 See for further information on the Syrian conflict, A. Bellal, ‘Syria: Increasing Foreign Involvement in the Conflict’, in The War Report 2016, Geneva Academy of IHL and Human Rights, 2017, https://www.geneva-academy.ch/joomlatools-files/docman-files/The%20 War%20Report%202016.pdf (last accessed 15 December 2018). 7 U. Friedman, ‘Syria’s War Has Never Been More International’, 14 February 2018, The Atlantic, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/02/syria-civil-war- 2 ‘Why Is There a War in Syria’, BBC News, 7 September 2018, https://www.bbc.com/news/ next/553232/ (last accessed 7 October 2018). world-middle-east-35806229 (last accessed 15 August 2018). 8 ‘Syria’s Civil War Explained from the Beginning’. 3 ‘Syria’s Civil War Explained from the Beginning’, Al Jazeera, 14 April 2018, https://www. aljazeera.com/news/2016/05/syria-civil-war-explained-160505084119966.html (last accessed 9 ‘Russia, Turkey Agree on Borders of Demilitarised Zone in Idlib’, Al Jazeera, 22 September 15 August 2018). 2018, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/09/russia-turkey-agree-borders-demilitarised- zone-idlib-180921142500450.html (last accessed 7 October 2018). 4 Ibid. 10 A. Mohammed and P. Stewart, ‘Exclusive: Despite Tensions, Russia Seeks U.S. Help to 5 U.S. Department of State, Syria: July–December, 2010 International Religious Freedom Rebuild Syria’, Reuters, 3 August 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-russia-syria- Report, 13 September 2011, https://www.state.gov/j/drl/rls/irf/2010_5/168276.htm (last exclusive/exclusive-despite-tensions-russia-seeks-u-s-help-to-rebuild-syria-idUSKBN1KO2JP accessed 15 August 2018). (last accessed 15 August 2018). 6 ‘ISIS Fast Facts’, CNN International Edition, 3 September 2017, https://edition.cnn. 11 Global Coalition, ‘79 Partners United in Defeating Daesh’, http://theglobalcoalition.org/en/ com/2014/08/08/world/isis-fast-facts/index.html (last accessed 15 August 2018). partners/ (last accessed 15 August 2018). 2 | THE WAR REPORT 2018 | THE SYRIAN ARMED CONFLICT: NEARING THE END ? with Kurdish militant groups, and also in an international armed conflict with Syria as the Government has not accepted Turkish presence on its soil. Turkey has been present in the conflict since 2016 and President Erdoğan has recently said that Turkish troops will remain until a general election is held in Syria.17 Syrian Government At the beginning of the war, the Syrian Army numbered between 250,000 and 300,000 troops; nevertheless, over the years of the conflict, due to casualties, defections and © ICRC desertions, this number has greatly decreased.18 It is difficult terrorism, since the Syrian Government has not consented to know the current number of the troops, but according to to this foreign-troop presence, there is an international Global Firepower rankings, the number of active Syrian armed conflict between the US-led coalition and the Assad military personnel is currently around 154,000.19 government, as established by The War Report 2016.12 There are currently around 2,000 US troops on Syria’s territory.13 Israel versus Iran on Syrian Territory Direct confrontation between Syria and the coalition There is arguably an international armed conflict took place for the first time in April 2017 when the US between Israel and Iran within Syrian territory, further carried out a missile strike on a Syrian Government air complicating the situation. Iran is on Syrian territory to base after the Government had used chemical weapons on aid the Assad government’s fight against rebel groups. In its own population.14 Another direct confrontation took February 2018, an Iranian drone went into Israeli airspace place almost exactly a year later in April 2018, when the from Syria and prompted a subsequent Israeli strike on the US, Britain and France launched airstrikes against Syrian Iranian command centre, which had allegedly launched chemical weapon storage, military and research facilities the drone. As this triggered Syrian anti-aircraft fire, Israel after another suspected chemical attack by President Assad resorted to a broader wave of strikes on Syrian and Iranian near Damascus.15 targets.20 There was another alleged Israeli airstrike on Though the US has been playing with the idea of Syria’s air base at the beginning of April that killed 7 Iranian withdrawing from Syria for a while, its most recent stance military personnel, which Israel has not confirmed.21 At has shifted as the Trump administration has vowed to the end of April, there were more strikes targeting Syrian stay in Syria until the end of the war as a way to halt Iran’s military positions in Hama and Aleppo, reportedly hitting expansion across the Middle East.16 two Iran-linked bases. It is not clear where the attack came from, but US officials have pointed the finger at Israel, Turkey warning that this is ‘the latest sign that Israel and Iran are Turkey is part of the US-led coalition, but it is also acting moving closer to open warfare’.22 unilaterally against the Syrian Kurds, thus arguably meriting a separate mention for being in a non-international conflict 12 A. Bellal, The War Report: Armed Conflicts in 2016, Geneva Academy of International Humanitarian Law and Human Rights, 2017, https://www.geneva-academy.ch/joomlatools- 17 ‘Erdogan: Turkey Will not Leave Syria Until an Election Is Held’, Al Jazeera, 4 September files/docman-files/The%20War%20Report%202016.pdf (last accessed 26 November 2018). 2018, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/10/erdogan-turkey-leave-syria-election- held-181004174206836.html (last accessed 07 October 2018). 13 M. Kranz, ‘Trump Reportedly Wants to Get Out of Syria — Here’s How Many Troops the US Has in the Country’, Business Insider, http://uk.businessinsider.com/troop-levels-in-syria- 18 S.