Country Document for Disaster Risk Reduction Antigua and Barbuda 2016 Country Document for Disaster Risk Reduction: Antigua and Barbuda, 2016 February 2017 National Office of Disaster Services (NODS) American Road St. Johns, Antigua and Barbuda W.I National coordination: National Office of Disaster Services Philmore Mullin, Director Sherrod James, Deputy Director Regional coordination: Alexcia Cooke, UNISDR Author: Dorbrene O’Marde Cover photo: provided by NODS from ESI archives This document covers humanitarian aid activities implemented with the financial assistance of the European Union. The views expressed herein should not be taken, in any way, to reflect the official opinion of the European Union, and the European Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains. ECHO UNISDR European Commission's Humanitarian Aid and Civil United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Protection Department Reduction Office for Central America and the Caribbean Regional office for the Americas Managua, Nicaragua Ciudad del Saber (Clayton), Panamá Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] URL: http://ec.europa.eu/echo/ URL: http://www.eird.org/ http://www.dipecholac.net/ http://www.unisdr.org/americas 1 Country Document for Disaster Risk Reduction Antigua and Barbuda 2016 Message from Government Authorities 2 Country Document for Disaster Risk Reduction Antigua and Barbuda 2016 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Executive Summary 9 Acronyms 33 1 Introduction 37 1.1 Purpose. 37 1.2 Objective and Scope 37 1.3 Methodology 38 2 International Context for Disaster Risk Reduction 39 3 National Context. 44 3.1 Physical environment 44 3.1.1 Geographic location and size 44 3.1.2 Physiography 44 3.1.3 Climate and hydrology 47 3.1.4 Climate variability 50 3.2 Socioeconomic context 52 3.2.1 Population and demographics 52 3.2.2 Housing 57 3.2.3 Water and Sanitation 62 3.2.4 Literacy 63 3.2.5 Health 65 3.2.6 Economic growth and performance 69 3.2.7 Poverty and unemployment 71 3.2.8 Most vulnerable groups 72 3.3 Governance structure 80 3.3.1 Political structure and organisation 81 3.3.2 Local government and levels of decentralisation 83 3.3.3 Coordination mechanisms between State and non-State actors 83 3.4 Development context 85 3.4.1 Human development 86 3.4.2 National development objectives 90 4 Legal, Normative and Institutional Framework of the Country 93 4.1 Legal framework 93 4.1.1 The Constitution 93 4.1.2 Disaster Management Act 93 4.1.3 Laws and legally binding provisions 94 4.1.4 Approved annual budget 99 4.2 Normative Framework 100 4.2.1 Normative instruments for policy and technical decision-making on DRR 102 4.2.2 Public policies 103 4.3 Institutional framework 106 4.3.1 Organisation of the national system and mechanisms at all levels 107 4.4. Regulatory Framework 115 4.4.1 Regulatory instruments for policy and technical decision-making on DRR 115 4.5 National plans and their implementation 118 5 The State of Disaster Risk 121 5.1 Historic analysis of disasters. 121 3 Country Document for Disaster Risk Reduction Antigua and Barbuda 2016 5.2 Hazard threats 125 5.2.1 Hydrometeorological Hazards 126 5.2.2 Anthropogenic/Manmade Hazards 134 5.3 Vulnerability 136 5.3.1 Analytical criteria and methodology 136 5.3.2 Components 138 5.3.3 Vulnerability analysis based on selected criteria 139 5.4 Capacities 154 5.4.4 Tool inventory 165 5.5 Reduction of underlying risk factors 165 6 Disaster Risk Analysis 168 6.1 Analytical criteria and methodology 169 6.2 Definition of risk scenarios 171 6.2.1 Prioritisation of risk scenarios and areas for intervention 171 6.3 Country Risk Profile 182 7 Strategic Directions for Disaster Risk Reduction 186 8 Recommendations and Conclusions 191 ANNEXES 194 ANNEX I PURPOSE & BACKGROUND OF THE CONSULTANCY 195 ANNEX 2 (a) LIST OF ORGANIZATIONS INVITED TO THE CONSULTATIONS 197 ANNEX 2 (b) PARTICIPANTS IN CONSULTATION AND VALIDATION WORKSHOPS 198 ANNEX 3 RAINFALL IN DROUGHT YEARS 200 ANNEX 4 FLOOD PRONE AREAS 201 ANNEX 5 CRITERIA FOR ALERT THRESHOLD 202 ANNEX 6 COMMUNITTES WITHIN THE DISTRICTS 204 ANNEX 7 AREAS OF TRAINING FOR VOLUNTEERS NATIONAL 205 REFERENCES 208 4 Country Document for Disaster Risk Reduction Antigua and Barbuda 2016 LIST OF TABLES Page TABLE 1 EVOLUTION OF THE INTERNATIONAL AND REGIONAL DISASTER RISK REDUCTION PROCESS 40 TABLE 2 RAINFALL BY MONTH/YEAR 48 TABLE 3 EXISTING STORAGE VOLUMES OF MAJOR WATERSHEDS IN ANTIGUA 49 TABLE 4 DEPENDENT AND PRODUCTIVE POPULATION 2014 (ES) 52 TABLE 5 TOTAL POPULATION BY FIVE-YEAR AGE GROUPS BY PARISH FIVE-YEAR AGE GROUPS 201 53 TABLE 6 MAJOR GROUPS OF CARIBBEAN MIGRANTS (2011 CENSUS) 54 TABLE 7 PERCENTAGE AGE DISTRIBUTION 1991, 2001, 2011 54 TABLE 8 ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA POPULATION PROJECTIONS TO 2030 55 TABLE 9 POPULATION GROWTH BY PARISH BETWEEN 1991, 2001 & 2011 57 TABLE 10 NUMBER OF PRIVATE HOUSEHOLDS BY PARISH - 1991, 2001 AND 2010 58 TABLE 11 NUMBER OF PRIVATE HOUSEHOLDS BY PARISH, ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION AND 58 HOUSEHOLD SIZE 1991/2001/2011 TABLE 12 DWELLING UNIT GROWTH BY PARISH OR CENSUS DISTRICT BETWEEN 1991, 2001 & 2011 BY 59 POPULATION GROWTH TABLE 13 DWELLING UNITS MY MATERIAL OF OUTER WALLS & ROOFING 2011 60 TABLE 14 SOURCE OF LIGHTING IN DWELLING UNIT BY PARISH 61 TABLE 15 NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS BY PARISH BY MAIN SOURCE OF WATER SUPPLY 62 TABLE 16 NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS BY PARISH BY BATHROOM LOCATION FOR DWELLING UNIT 62 TABLE 17 POPULATION 15 YEARS & OLDER BY EDUCATION LEVEL 63 TABLE 18 INTERNET USE IN POPULATION 2011 64 TABLE 19 BIRTH RATE, 2012-2014 65 TABLE 20 TEN PRINCIPAL CAUSES OF DEATH / ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA 2010-2012 66 TABLE 21 SELECTED COMMUNICABLE DISEASES, 2012 – 2014 68 TABLE 22 HIV & AIDS PREVALENCE2012 – 2014 68 TABLE 23 PERCENTAGE POPULATION 60+ ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA 75 TABLE 24 GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE ON PENSIONS (EC$M) 2007-2011 76 TABLE 25 SOCIAL SECURITY- AVERAGE NUMBER OF PENSIONERS & COST 2007-2011 77 TABLE 26 PERSONS WITH DISABILITIES ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA 2011 79 TABLE 27 HDI / RANKING ANTIGUA & BARBUDA 86 TABLE 28 TRENDS IN HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDICES FOR SELECTED CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES (1990- 87 2015 TABLE 29 MDGS STATUS AT A GLANCE 1990-2007: REACHING THE GOALS AND TARGETS 88 TABLE 30 NODS BUDGET 2012-2016 EC$ 99 TABLE 31 SUMMARY OF RELATIONSHIP OF DISASTER MANAGEMENT STRUCTURE ENTITIES 108 TABLE 32 DRR COMMITTEES IN ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA BY TYPE AND MEMBERSHIP 109 TABLE 33 TYPES OF HAZARDS IN ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA 121 TABLE 34 SUMMARY OF MAJOR HAZARD EVENTS IN ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA SINCE 1642 121 TABLE 35 SUMMARY OF MOST RECENT SIGNIFICANT HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL HAZARD EVENTS IN 122 ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA TABLE 36 SUMMARY OF MOST RECENT SIGNIFICANT SEISMOLOGICAL & PHYSICAL HAZARD EVENTS 123 TABLE 37 AVERAGE DAMAGE TO SECTORS FROM STORM IMPACT 1989 TO 1999 126 TABLE 38 SOCIAL IMPACTS OF STORMS 1995 – 1999 127 TABLE 39 ECONOMIC IMPACT OF HURRICANES OMAR AND EARL IN ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA 130 TABLE 40 SUMMARY OF TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS IN ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA 2006-2007 136 TABLE 41 WATER SOURCE CONTRIBUTION TO DAILY PRODUCTION RATE 143 TABLE 42 SUMMARY OF CRIMES AGAINST PERSONS & PROPERTY 2006-2007 150 TABLE 43 SUMMARY OF CORE INDICATOR CHANGES SINCE HFA PROGRESS REPORT 2009-2011 157 TABLE 44 SUMMARY OF DRR RELATED PROJECTS/ PROGRAMMES IMPLEMENTED 164 TABLE 45 LIST OF SEVERAL OF AVAILABLE DRR TOOLS FOR DEVELOPMENT PLANNING 165 5 Country Document for Disaster Risk Reduction Antigua and Barbuda 2016 TABLE 46 IMPACT AND LIKELIHOOD SCALES 171 TABLE 47 HAZARD PRIORITY SCORE 172 TABLE 48 EXAMPLE OF RISK SCENARIO: HURRICANE, WIND, STORM SURGE 172 TABLE 49 SUMMARY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE AND EARTHQUAKE LOSSES 184 TABLE 50 CRITERIA IDENTIFYING REDUCTION (DRR) PLANNING IN LATIN AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN 186 6 Country Document for Disaster Risk Reduction Antigua and Barbuda 2016 LIST OF FIGURES Page FIGURE 1: CARIBBEAN ARCHIPELAGO 44 FIGURE 2: MAP ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA 44 FIGURE 3: ANTIGUA TOPOGRAPHY 45 FIGURE 4: GEOLOGICAL REGIONS 45 FIGURE 5: SOIL TYPES LOCATION ANTIGUA 46 FIGURE 6: MAP OF BARBUDA 47 FIGURE 7: SOIL TYPES IN BARBUDA 47 FIGURE 8: AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE & RAINFALL FOR ANTIGUA/ BARBUDA FROM 48 1900-2012 FIGURE 9: MAJOR WATERSHEDS OF ANTIGUA 49 FIGURE 10: ANNUAL RAINFALL ANOMALY (1981-2010 BASELINE) 50 FIGURE 11: ANNUAL MEAN TEMPERATURE FOR VCBIA, ANTIGUA (1981-2010 BASELINE) 51 FIGURE 12: POPULATION PYRAMID IN FIVE-YEAR AGE GROUPS 2011 52 FIGURE 13: POPULATION GROWTH ACTUAL (1991 – 2015) AND PROJECTED (2015 – 2030) 55 FIGURE 14: POPULATION CONCENTRATIONS SOURCE: GENIVAR 56 FIGURE 15: MOTALITY RATES ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA 2000-2015 65 FIGURE 16: TOTAL NUMBER OF DEATHS 66 FIGURE 17: LEADING NON-COMMUNICABLE DISEASES 2012/13/14 67 FIGURE 18: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA REAL GROWTH RATES 2001 – 2011 70 FIGURE 19: TRENDS IN HDI COMPONENTS 2010-2012 86 FIGURE 20: SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS 89 FIGURE 21: NATIONAL DISASTER MANAGEMENT ORGANIZATION 108 FIGURE 22: STRUCTURE NODS AND GOVERNANCE 110 FIGURE 23: POT WORKS DAM, MAY 2016, SOURCE: NODS 123 FIGURE 24: PROJECT IMPACT AREA FOR 10M WAVE 126 FIGURE 25: ILLEGAL DUMPING IN WELL ON ROAD TO SIR MCCHESNEY HIGH SCHOOL IN 128 BARBUDA FIGURE 26: FLODDING IN CASHEW HILL, BENDALS/BATHLODGE AREA 2008, SOURCE: NODS 129 FIGURE 27: FLOODING IN ST. JOHNS CITY 2015, SOURCE: NODS 129 FIGURE 28: PIGOTTS FLOODED AS BURMA GHAUT OVERFLOWS 2015, 130 FIGURE 29: FLOODING IN CRABBE HILL AREA SOURCE: NODS 130 FIGURE 30: TORNADO IMPACT, CAMP BLIZZARD 131 FIGURE 31: SEISMOLOGICAL ACTIVITY 15TH – 31ST MARCH 2011 132 FIGURE 32: SEISMOLOGICAL ACTIVITY 01ST – 15TH APRIL 2011 132 FIGURE 33: ROCK FALL - JENNINGS/EBENEZER AREA 133 FIGURE 34: LANDSLIDE THREATENING ROAD IN FOLLY GHAUT 133 FIGURE 35: POTENTIAL ROAD UNDERMINE AND COLLAPSE: 133 FIGURE 36: MAJOR ACCESS ROUTES 133 FIGURE 37: ST.