Greenhouse Gas Reduction Strategies in Utah: An Economic and Policy Analysis Prepared for: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Prepared by: The Utah Department of Natural Resources Office of Energy and Resource Planning Table of Contents Executive Summary .....................................................ES-1 I. Background ................................................ES-1 Table 1. Fossil Fuel GHG Emissions Baseline in Tons CO2, 1990-2010 ......ES-1 II. Major Findings ................................................ES-1 A. Baseline ................................................ES-1 Figure 1. Fossil Fuel GHG Emissions Baseline 1990-2010 ............. ES-2 B. Mitigation Strategies ............................................ES-2 Table 2. GHG Cost and Reduction - Summary by Sector ..............ES-3 Table 3. Fossil Fuel Mitigation Strategies Ranked By Feasible $/ton .....ES-3 Figure 2. Cost vs. Reduction S Feasible ............................ES-4 Figure 3. Cost vs. Reduction S Potential ...........................ES-5 C. Economic Impact ...............................................ES-6 Table 4. Estimated Average Annual Changes in Earnings and Employment ES-6 Part One: Introduction ..................................................... 1-1 I. Background ................................................. 1-1 II. Scope of Research ................................................. 1-2 III. Methodology 1-2 IV. Report Structure ................................................. 1-4 Part Two: The Greenhouse Effect and Global Initiatives ......................... 2-1 I. Background and State of the Science ................................... 2-1 A. Climate and Weather in Context: A History of Climate Change .......... 2-1 Figure 2-1. Northern Hemisphere Temperature 1400 - 1995 ............. 2-2 Figure 2-2. Northern Hemisphere temperature , 1902 - 1995 ............. 2-3 B. The Science of the Greenhouse Effect .............................. 2-3 II. International Treaties ................................................. 2-4 A. Framework Convention on Climate Change .......................... 2-4 B. Kyoto Protocol ................................................. 2-4 III. The International Science Community .................................. 2-6 Part Three: Utah Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Mitigation Strategies .... 3-1 I. Phase I: The Utah Greenhouse Gas Inventory ............................... 3-1 A. Carbon Dioxide ................................................... 3-1 B. Methane ...................................................... 3-2 C. Nitrous Oxide .................................................... 3-2 D. Utah Forests ..................................................... 3-2 II. Goal of the Utah Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Plan .......................... 3-3 III. Criteria for Selection of Mitigation Strategies .............................. 3-3 IV. Part Four: Utah Energy Baseline ......................................... 4-1 I. Overview of Utah Total Energy Use and GHG ........................... 4-1 A. Utah Energy Use by Fuel and Sector ............................... 4-1 Table 4-1. Carbon Content of Fossil Fuels ........................... 4-1 B. Methodology 4-1 Table 4-2. Utah CO2 Emissions by Energy Source, Excluding Elec. Exports ($) ............................. 4-2 Table 4-3. Utah CO2 Emissions by Energy Source, Excluding Elec. Exports (%) ............................. 4-2 Table 4-4. Average Annual Growth Rate in CO2 Emissions, by Energy Source ..................................... 4-3 Table 4-5. Utah CO2 Emissions by Energy Source and End-Use Sector in 1998 .............. 4-3 Table 4-6. Utah CO2 Emissions by Energy Source and End-Use Sector in 1998 .............. 4-3 Table 4-7. Utah Residential Electricity Use .......................... 4-4 C. The Matrix of Total Energy Use and CO2 Emissions ................... 4-4 Utah Population Growth ......................................... 4-4 II. The Utah Residential Sector and Carbon Dioxide Emissions ................ 4-5 A. Overview of Aggregate Trends ....................................4-5 Table 4-8. Utah Residential Natural Gas Use ......................... 4-5 B. Baseline Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the 1990s ..................... 4-6 Table 4-9. Utah Residential CO2 Emissions .......................... 4-6 Table 4-10. Utah Residential CO2 Emissions as a percent ............... 4-6 Table 4-11. Annual Growth in Utah Residential CO2 Emissions .......... 4-6 C. The Matrix of Residential Sector Energy by End Use .................. 4-7 Table 4-12. Utah Residential CO2 Emissions in 1998 .................. 4-7 Table 4-13. Utah Residential CO2 Emissions in 1998 as a percent ........ 4-7 III. Utah Commercial Sector Energy Use and Carbon Dioxide Emissions ......... 4-8 A. Overview of Aggregate Trends ....................................4-8 Table 4-14. Utah Commercial Electricity Use ........................4-8 Table 4-15. Utah Commercial Natural Gas Use ....................... 4-8 Table 4-16. Utah Commercial CO2 Emissions ........................4-9 Table 4-17. Utah Commercial CO2 Emissions as a percent .............. 4-9 B. Baseline Utah Commercial Sector Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the 1990s . 4-9 Table 4-18. Annual Growth in Utah CO2 Emissions ................... 4-9 Table 4-19. Utah Commercial CO2 Emissions in 1998 ................. 4-9 Table 4-20. Utah Commercial CO2 Emissions in 1998 as a percent ...... 4-10 The Utah Commercial Sector and Tourism ......................... 4-10 C. The Matrix of Commercial Energy Use and Carbon Dioxide Emissions ... 4-11 IV. The Utah Industrial Sector and CO2 Emissions .......................... 4-11 A. Overview of Aggregate Trends ...................................4-11 Table 4-21. Utah Industrial Energy Use ............................ 4-11 B. Baseline Utah Industrial Sector CO2 Emissions in the 1990s ............ 4-11 Table 4-22. Utah Industrial CO2 Emissions ......................... 4-12 Table 4-23. Utah Industrial CO2 Emission as a percent ................ 4-12 Table 4-24. Annual Growth in Utah Industrial CO2 Emissions .......... 4-12 Table 4-25. Utah Industrial CO2 Emissions in 1998 ................... 4-13 C. The Matrix of Industrial Energy Use and CO2 Emissions .............. 4-13 V. The Utah Transportation Sector and CO2 Emissions ...................... 4-13 A. Overview of Aggregate Trends ...................................4-13 Table 4-26. Utah Industrial CO2 Emissions in 1998 as a percent ......... 4-14 B. Baseline Utah Transportation CO2 Emissions in the 1990s ............. 4-14 Table 4-27. Utah Gasoline Consumption ........................... 4-14 Table 4-28. Utah Automobiles and Miles Traveled ................... 4-14 I-15 Reconstruction ............................................ 4-15 Table 4-29. Utah Transportation CO2 Emissions ..................... 4-15 Table 4-30. Utah Transportation CO2 Emissions as a percent ........... 4-16 Table 4-31. Annual Growth in Utah Transportation CO2 Emissions ...... 4-16 C. The Matrix of Transportation Energy Use and CO2 Emissions .......... 4-16 Table 4-32. Utah Transportation CO2 Emissions in 1998 .............. 4-16 Table 4-33. Utah Transportation CO2 Emissions in 1998 as a percent ..... 4-17 VI. Utah Electric Utility Sector and CO2 Emissions ......................... 4-17 A. Overview of Aggregate Trends ...................................4-17 B. Baseline Utah Electric Utility Sector CO2 Emissions in the 1990s ........ 4-18 C. Electric Utility Energy Use and CO2 Emissions ...................... 4-18 Table 4-34. Electric Utility Fuel Consumption ....................... 4-18 Table 4-35. Utah Coal-fired Power Plant Capacity ................... 4-18 Table 4-36. Utah Electric Utility CO2 Emissions ..................... 4-19 Table 4-37. Utah Electric Utility CO2 Emissions as a percent ........... 4-19 Table 4-38. Annual Growth in Utah Electric Utility CO2 Emissions ...... 4-19 Deregulation ................................................4-20 VII. Assessment of Potential Energy Savings ............................... 4-20 Residential Sector ......................................... 4-20 Commercial Sector ........................................ 4-21 Industrial Sector ........................................... 4-21 Transportation Sector ...................................... 4-21 Electric Utility Sector ...................................... 4-21 The Non-Fossil Sector ...................................... 4-21 Land-Use Planning ........................................ 4-22 Deregulation and Greenhouse Gas Emissions ........................... 4-22 Part Five: Fossil Fuel Mitigation Strategies .................................... 5-1 I. Overview ................................................. 5-1 II. Residential Sector .................................................. 5-1 A. Introduction ................................................. 5-1 B. Selected Strategies ............................................. 5-2 Major Appliance Efficiency Gains ............................. 5-2 Electric Water Heater to Natural Gas Conversion .................. 5-2 Refrigerators .............................................. 5-3 Clothes Dryers ............................................. 5-3 Clothes Washers ........................................... 5-3 Residential Indoor Lighting ...................................... 5-3 Building Code Improvements ................................. 5-4 EnergyStar® Homes ........................................ 5-4 Weatherization ............................................