Barely Making the Grade: OBAMA’S FIRST YEAR A Study by the Institute for Policy Studies John Feffer, Dedrick Muhammad, Karen IPS-DC.ORG Dolan, Daphne Wysham, Sarah Anderson and Phyllis Bennis IPS-DC.ORG ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Erik Leaver for layout. Nate Kerksick and Adwoa Masozi for design elements. Contact: Institute for Policy Studies Tel: 202 234 9382 x 227 Email: [email protected] 1112 16th St. NW, Suite 600 Washington, DC 20036 http://www.ips-dc.org INSTITUTE FOR POLICY STUDIES (IPS-DC.ORG) strengthens social movements with independent research, visionary thinking, and links to the grassroots, scholars and elected officials. Since 1963 it has empowered people to build healthy and democratic societies in communities, the United States, and the world. INTRODUCTION BARELY MAKING THE GRADE OBAMA’S FIRST YEAR BY JOHN FEFFER GRADE After the first 100 days of the Obama administra- After the first year in tion, the Institute for Policy Studies introduced our office, Obama fell short Change Index to evaluate the policies and perfor- 6.5 of what he outlined as a mance of the new president. Did the candidate who candidate and what we promised change deliver on his promises? had hoped for during the campaign. Back in April, we gave the administration a score of 7 out of 10. "In other words, President Obama has certainly raised the level of U.S. foreign and After his first year in office, Obama emerged as the domestic policy," we wrote in our report Thirsting "have it both ways" president: hawk and dove, popu- for Change. "But honestly it wouldn't have taken list and pragmatist, principled and political. much to improve on the legacy left by the previous administration. We're still a long way off from reach- Obama's balancing act is reflected in his approval ing the top and earning a wholehearted 'cheers' from rating, which crested at 65 percent in March and our Change Index contributors." dropped to 50 percent by December. Like the public at large, we're looking at the glass of water that is Nine months later, the president has had more time the Obama administration and trying to decide to act on his agenda. And the result has been mixed. whether it's half full or half empty. It's certainly half He has spent a lot of time and energy to get a health full when compared to what might have been if John care plan to Congress, but the final product is flawed McCain had won and continued, uninterrupted, the in many ways. The stock market has regained much policies of his predecessor. The unemployment rate of its lost value, but the unemployment rate remains would likely be higher, health care reform further a staggering 10 percent and average Americans are from implementation, and America involved in yet still hurting. The president received his Nobel Peace another major war in Iran or North Korea. But the Prize in Oslo, but was simultaneously increasing the glass is half empty when compared to what Obama number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan and ordering the candidate promised and what other presidents, air strikes in Pakistan. like Lyndon Johnson or even Jimmy Carter, accom- plished in their first year, at least on the domestic front. 3 BARELY MAKING THE GRADE: OBAMA’S FIRST YEAR After the first year in office, Obama fell short of what he outlined as a candidate and what we had hoped for during the campaign. As a result, we low- ered our mark from 7 to 6.5. In our Change Index, the middle figure of 5 represents no change from the Bush administration. So, there has been change, but it's been modest. The new team squeaked by with a C- and a note in the margin: needs improvement. Obama’s First Year: Report Card Topic Grade Grade Foreign Policy 6.5 C- Domestic Policy 6 D+ Health Care 6.5 C- Energy and Climate 7.5 C+ Global Economy 7 C War and Peace 5.5 D Overall Grade 6.5 C- 4 FOREIGN POLICY FOREIGN POLICY BY JOHN FEFFER GRADE In his first year in office, Barack Obama gave several The actions undertaken exceptional speeches on foreign policy. In Prague, he by the administration endorsed nuclear disarmament in Prague. In Cairo, 6.5 have undercut the im- he called for a new engagement with the Islamic pressive rhetoric of the world. In Oslo, he repudiated torture. At these president’s speeches. moments, the new president firmly broke with the policies of his predecessor and provided a glimpse of what a new, cooperative, just U.S. foreign policy could be. from 68 percent in 2005 to 32 percent in 2009, and only 18 percent supported troop increases. Among But Obama the exceptional speaker also remained NATO allies, public opinion turned even more anchored in an exceptionalist tradition. In other sharply against the war, prompting NATO govern- words, he is the president of a country that has ments to set timetables for withdrawal. And finally, historically considered itself an exception to the rules elite opinion shifted, as even conservative pundits and realities governing other countries. like George Will and Joe Scarborough called on the president to start withdrawing troops. This exceptionalist tradition was no more apparent than in the administration’s policy in Afghanistan. The fifth indicator, the historical record, should have After considerable internal discussion, which in itself been the clincher. Afghans successfully resisted the was a marked departure from the rush to judgment Greeks, the British, and the Soviets. The failure to of past administrations, the president committed in capture Osama bin Laden and eradicate the Taliban December to a second increase in troops in Afghani- under the Bush administration should have sug- stan on top of the initial surge announced in Febru- gested that the United States isn’t an exception to ary. This second escalation came at a time when five the rule. Like the Vietnam War for Lyndon Johnson, indicators should have pushed Obama in the other the Afghanistan War is shaping up to be the defining direction. By the end of the summer, public opinion foreign policy of the Obama administration. Because in the United States had turned decisively against of its cost and unpopularity, the war threatens the the war, with only 24 percent supporting U.S. troop viability of the president’s domestic agenda. increases. In Afghanistan, meanwhile, positive as- sessment of U.S. activity in the country dropped 5 BARELY MAKING THE GRADE: OBAMA’S FIRST YEAR Indeed, the administration’s myriad domestic As a candidate, Obama promised to reach out to programs — health care, stimulus package, jobs U.S. adversaries that unclenched their fists. It is per- bill — all require hundreds of billions of dollars. haps too early to judge the success of what amounts But the one place the president hasn’t touched is the to slow and deliberate diplomacy. The United States Pentagon lockbox. The Afghanistan and Iraq wars is at least talking with North Korea and has begun have pushed Pentagon spending to $630 billion for to explore options with Burma. The negotiations 2010 (which doesn’t include the nuclear budget and with Iran haven’t achieved any success, but at least several other pots of military spending). The Obama the Pentagon hasn’t conducted bombing raids on administration, despite its need to find money for suspected nuclear facilities. The move to include domestic priorities, increased military spending. development as a consideration in the human rights True, it successfully took aim at some Cold War realm and the lifting of the global gag rule that re- weapons systems, like the F-22 fighter aircraft. It stricted U.S. funding for family planning were both canceled the missile defense bases in Poland and welcome shifts in policy. the Czech Republic (thus improving relations with Russia and making a treaty on nuclear weapons In other respects, however, the actions undertaken reductions more likely). But here too the Obama by the administration have undercut the impressive administration apparently believes that it’s an excep- rhetoric of the president’s speeches. In the Cairo tion to the rule that buying lots of guns and lots of speech, Obama showed great sensitivity in reaching butter ultimately breaks the bank. out to the Islamic world, but U.S. military actions have killed thousands of Muslim civilians in “collat- On international law, the Obama administration eral damage” and the president has refused to apply signaled that the United States would again respect real pressure on Israel to compromise to achieve certain universally accepted norms when it outlawed genuine Palestinian self-determination. The admin- torture and recommitted to the Geneva Conven- istration’s support of an overall missile defense plan tions. But the administration also refused to back (even without bases in Central Europe) and the Pen- away from the policy of extraordinary rendition tagon’s upgrading of conventional strike capabilities whereby suspects are seized outside the United States have also reduced the chances of achieving meaning- and then flown to yet another country for inter- ful nuclear arms reductions with the Russians. The rogation. It has also not succeeded in closing the U.S. policy of using drones and paramilitary teams Guantánamo detention facility. On multilateralism, to assassinate adversaries—which violates not only the administration agreed to pay U.S. arrears to the international law but also a U.S. executive order that United Nations and signed the UN Convention on originated in the Ford administration—undermines Disabilities. But Washington continues to be an out- the lofty statements of principle articulated by lier on the Law of the Sea, the conventions on land- Obama in his Nobel Prize acceptance speech.