If you have issues viewing or accessing this file contact us at NCJRS.gov. U.S. Department of Justice Law Enforcement Assistance Administration Criminal Justice Planning and Management Series Volume 2 Criminal Justice Analysis Course: Text !ii ,,° "" 1 ~ ~ ~ I ~ ~ ~ ~ • ~ r~I k ~ ~ • ~ ~ • ~h ¸ • ~ ~! ' ~'~i~ ~ ~, • ~ • , 11~ T¸p ~ I~ H ~ TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ......................................................... I INTRODUCTION ............................................................. 3 II Purpose and Approach ........................................... 3 II. Audience ............................ ........................... 3 Ill. Themes ......................................................... 4 IV. Value of Analysis ........... •................................... 5 V. Roadmap ....................................................... 13 CHAPTER 1. PROBLEM SPECIFICATIONI ...................................... 19 I. How Problems are Specified .............. ; ..................... 19 II. Summary........................................................ 36 CHAPTER 2. DATA SYNTHESIS.............................................. 41 I• Measurement Accuracy ................................. ' ......... 44 II. Assessing Hypotheses .......................................... 49 Ill. Data Sources .................................................. 56 IV. Planning the Data Collection Effort .......................... 100 CHAPTER 3. DESCRIPTIVE METHODS................................. ...... 113 I • Measurement Level s ........................................... 114 II. Statistical Methods .......................................... 119 Ill. Graphical Methods ............................................ 140 IV. Time Charts and Percentage Change ............................ 152 V. Conclusion ............. '.................. ...................... 157 CHAPTER 4. COMPARATIVE METHODS........................................ 161 I• Rates and Index Numbers ....................................... 161 II. Seriousness Weighting ....... ................................ 172 Ill. Cross-Classification Tables .................................. 179 IV. Scattergrams ................................................. 187 V. Statistical Maps............................................. 197 VI. Conclusion ................................................... 204 CHAPTER 5. INFERENTIAL METHODS........................................ 207 Io Statistical Testing .......................................... 208 II. T-Test ....................................................... 211 III. Chi Square Goodness-of-Fit Test .............................. 216 IV. Chi Square Test of Independence ..... '......................... 221 V. Corre I ati on Coeffi c ient .................................. '.... 227 VI. Least Squares Regression ...... •............................... 237 VII. Summary ...................................................... 265 CHAPTER 6. DATA INTERPRETATION SYSTEM................................. 269 Io Flow Charts ............................................. , .... 271 !I. Input/Output Analysis ........................................ 278 III. Suntnary ............................ '.......................... 302 CHAPTER 7. PRESENTATION OF FINDINGS................................... 305 Io Considerations in Preparing a Presentation ................... 305 II. Achieving Perspective ........................................ 307 Ill. Guidelines for Effective Presentations ....................... 308 IV. Preparing a Written Report ................................... 313 V. Conducting a Briefing ........................................ 314 VI. Conclusion ................................................... 315 CHAPTER 8. MANAGING ANALYSIS.......................................... 321 IQ Analysis Plan ................................................. 321 II. Work Plan.. ................................................... 324 III. Benefits of Planned Analysis ................................. 336 IV. Conc fusion ................................................... 337 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Good analysis is indispensable to the development and implementation of effective programs for improving criminal justice and reducing crime. Practitioners know that they must rely on analysis of crime and the criminal justice system problems they face to design programs, and policies and that the chances for a rational allocation of the system's scarce resources are enhanced when the relevance of the data to the problem at hand is clearly apparent. A powerful tool at the practitioner's disposal is the data collected, analyzed and utilized throughout the decision-making process. The expertise of analysts, planners, evaluators, statisticians, and of greatest importance, people who have had direct personal experience with state and local criminal justice analysis and planning processes have been tapped by the Law Enforcement Assistance Administration (LEAA) to develop and deliver a Criminal Justice Analysis Training Course. LEAA has developed other training courses in Plannin9, Program Development, Evaluation and Management. The design of these programs of instruction is intended to form a comprehensive and complementary package for the assistance of state and local criminal justice agencies. The purpose of this Text is to provide°materials that complement and support the Analysis Course and that can be used as a reference by criminal justice students and professionals. The material presented is organized to parallel the sequence of the course modules. The Criminal Justice Analysis curriculum is the product of over a four-year effort on the part of numerous practitioners, academicians, and professional organizations. This development process was divided into four phases. During the initial phase, the curriculum development effort was coordinated by Abt Associates. Five pilot offerings of the course were delivered by the State University of New York at Albany and were evaluated by the American Institutes of Research. Considerable assistance in the early planning stages of this project was provided by the National Conference of State Criminal Justice Planning Administrators, National Association of Criminal Justice Planning Directors, Criminal Justice Statistics Association, the National League of Cities/U.S. Conference of Mayors, and the National Association of Cou nti es. During this initial phase of course development, overall direction of the curriculum and delivery of the pilot offerings was a cooperative endeavor within LEAA. Primarily involved were the Office of Planning and Management, the National Criminal Justice Information and Statistics Service, and the Training Division of the Office of Operations Support. Leonard Oberlander of the Office of Planning and Management and Marianne Zawitz of the Statistics Division monitored the first phase of the project. The second phase involved the course's revision and was directed by LEAA's Training Division, Office of Operations Support. Richard Ulrich, Director of the Training Division was project monitor during this revision phase with the support of John Moxley. The revision of the material was also assisted by the formation of an Advisory Group. This Q group of practitioners provided critical judgement in further developing and 'improving the curriculum. During this stage the revision was undertaken by Abt Associates with the assistance of the University of Southern California Criminal Justice Training Center under the supervision of Robert Carter who piloted the revised curriculum. Rebecca Wurzberger of the Criminal Justice Training Center at University of Southern California, coordinated its delivery. The preparation of the revised material was significantly aided by support and contributions made by the LEAA-sponsored Training Center system: in particular, Robert Stonek - University of Wisconsin at Milwaukee; H.G. Weisman, and Craig Fraser - Florida State University; Robert Galatti Northeastern University; Robert Carter, Rebecca Wurzberger, and Tom Esensten - University of Southern California; and Theodore :Heim, Lyle Newton, and Allen Beck of Washburn University. The third phase of the project involved the assimilation and delivery of these materials by the five Criminal Justice Training Centers. The treatment of this material by additional faculties and repeated deliveries contributed significantly to the understanding of the course materials and the needs of the criminal justice community. This formed the basis for phase four of the project in which the final set of course revisions were made. Phase four of the project proved to be a two and one half year effort under the leadership of the Washburn University Criminal Justice Training Center. The Project Director was Lyle Newton and the management and technical direction was providedby Allen Beck. During this fourth phase, the "finalization" of what had then evolved into a major Criminal Justice research project, all five of the Criminal Justice Training Centers, their staffs, course participants, faculties, and a broad cross section of the nation's criminal justice analysts provided major contributions to the study. During this last phase LEAA monitorship was provided by Richard Waters at the Training Division, and major contributions to content and coordination were provided by Richard Ulrich. From the beginning the person who conceived, labored and created the Criminal Justice Analysis Course was it's author, Seth Hirshorn. 2 . INTRODUCTION I. Purpose