Greece Country Strategy 2020-2025 Approved by the Board of Directors on 21 October 2020 PUBLIC Table of Contents and Glossary Glossary of Key Terms Table of Content ABI Annual Business Investment IMF International Monetary Fund Executive Summary 3 ASB Advisory for Small Businesses IPO Initial Public Offering BSTDB Black Sea Trade and Development MEI Municipal and Environmental Greece– EBRD Snapshot 5 Bank Infrastructure I. Implementation of Previous Strategy – 2016- 6 CoOs Countries of Operation MREL Minimum requirement for own funds 2019 CPI Consumer Price Index and eligible liabilities CNG Compressed Natural Gas MSME Micro, Small and Medium Enterprise 6 Key Transition Results Achieved during Previous E&S Environmental and Social NDC Nationally Determined Contribution Strategy Period EIA Environmental Impact Assessments NPE Non-Performing Exposure Challenges to Implementation and Key Lessons 8 EIB European Investment Bank NPL Non-Performing Loans EIF European Investment Fund NTB Non-tariff Barrier II. Economic Context 9 ENFIA Unified Property Tax ODA Official Development Assistance Macroeconomic Context and Outlook for Strategy 9 ESIA Environmental and Social Impact OECD Organisation for Economic Co- Period Assessment Operation and Development ESIF European Structural and Investment OSCE Organization for Security and Key Transition Challenges 10 Fund Cooperation in Europe EU European Union OTE Hellenic Telecommunications III. Government Priorities and Stakeholder 12 FDI Foreign Direct Investment Organisation Engagement FI Financial Institution PE Private Equity IV. Defining EBRD’s Country Country Strategy 13 FMCG Fast-moving Consumer Goods PPC Public Power Corporation Priorities GDP Gross Domestic Product PPP Private-Public Partnership GET Green Economy Transition PR Performance Requirement V. Activities and Results Framework 14 GHG Green House Gas R&D Research and Development GVC Global Value Chain RE Renewable Energy VI.Mapping of International Partners’ 17 H&S Health and Safety RSF Risk Sharing Facility Complementarity in EBRD Business Areas HCAP Hellenic Corporation of Assets and SEE South-Eastern Europe Participations SME Small and Medium Enterprise VII. Implementation Risks and Environmental and 18 HFSF Hellenic Financial Stability Fund SOE State-Owned Enterprise Social Implications HR Human Resources SPO Secondary Public Offering ICA Industry, Commerce and TC Technical Cooperation VIII. Donor Co-Financing Assessment 19 Agribusiness TFP Trade Facilitation Programme ICT Information and Communication TPES Total primary energy supply Annex 1 – Political Assessment 21 Technologies VCI Venture Capital IFI International Financial Institution WB World Bank ILO International Labour Organization WEF World Economic Forum PUBLIC 2 Executive Summary Greece’s commitment to and application of the principles set out in Article 1 of the Agreement Establishing the Bank has continued over the period since the adoption of the previous Country Strategy. After nearly a decade of deep economic decline, GDP growth was modest in recent years at close to 2 per cent annually, mainly driven by exports and private consumption, and another successful tourism season in 2019. Labour markets and social conditions improved gradually as the unemployment rate decreased and private consumption consequently recovered, with economic sentiment reaching a 12-year high in 2019. Fiscal performance has also been strong, on the back of Greece’s exit from its third economic adjustment programme in August 2018. However the COVID-19 pandemic has abruptly interrupted this steady recovery. The halt of virtually all travel across Europe and beyond in March 2020 has heavily hit the tourism sector, and confinement measures drastically reduced the level of private consumption. While the fiscal response and other mitigating measures put forward by the government are ambitious, GDP is now likely to contract sharply in 2020, before robustly recovering in 2021. The COVID-19 pandemic and its economic consequences present an unprecedented challenge. In the immediate aftermath of the outbreak, the Bank approved a €1 billion Solidarity Package of new funding for existing clients in order to respond to the social and economic impact of the pandemic. It has since scaled up and broadened this emergency programme under a second, updated package that will urgently develop targetedinvestmentsrespondingtospecificchallengesinsectorssuchasSMEs,tourism,tradeandvaluechains.Togethertheseprogrammes will provide critical short term financial support, aiding the economic recovery while also advancing the Bank’s longer term strategic priorities in Greece. Even before the current pandemic, Greece continued to face significant structural challenges, particularly in securing much-needed foreign investment given domestic funding constraints. Privatisations, PPPs and major infrastructure projects will all require financial support, and critical reforms still require implementation to attract necessary investment, enhance resilience and promote sustainable growth. Markets will be watching to see if the new government is ultimately able to deliver on its ambitious reform agenda. Recognising that the Bank is well placed to assist Greece in these targeted areas, in 2018 the Government requested, and EBRD shareholders approved, a five-year extension of its mandate until the end of 2025. While currently focused on providing short-term financial support under the Solidarity Package, in light of the country’s access to considerable EU and EIB funds the Bank will ensure that its approach over the ensuing strategy period remains highly strategic, with its investments focused in selected areas where its comparative advantage can make a major difference and it can achieve the highest levels of transition impact and additionality. PUBLIC 3 Executive Summary Consistent with its exceptional and time-limited mandate, the Bank will make every effort to front-load its activities, given the limited window for impactful operations, while also remaining alert to the potential need to adjust its approach as the crisis evolves. A mid-term review will be held in early 2023 to further refine and tailor the strategy in order to optimise resources and bring operations to an orderly conclusion in the last two years of the Bank’s operations in Greece. Consequently the Bank will not engage in new operations in Greece beyond 31 December 2025. With that in mind, the Bank is set to pursue the following strategic priorities in Greece in 2020-2025: • Strengthening competitiveness by facilitating expansion of the private sector; • Supporting sustainable energy and infrastructure, including through further regional linkages; and • Further enhancing financial sector resilience. PUBLIC 4 Greece - EBRD Snapshot EBRD Investment Activities in Country (as of August 2020) Greece Context Figures Portfolio €1,912m Active projects 55 Country Comparators Equity share 10% Operating assets €1,373m EU (513,213) 1 Population (million)3 10,727 Spain (46.7) 1 Private Share 92% Net cum. investment €3,872m Portugal (10.2) GDP per capita (PPP, USD)3 EU (43,737) ABI and Operations Portfolio Composition 29,592 Spain (39,715) (2018) Portugal (33,415) 900 16 2500 800 14 2000 Global Competitiveness Spain (23rd) 700 12 Ranked th 600 Index (WEF) (2018) Ireland (24 ) 10 1500 59th th 500 Portugal (34 ) 8 (out of 140 economies) 400 6 1000 300 Unemployment (%, ILO est.)4 EU (6.3) 4 Portugal (6.1) 200 Investments (€m) 500 18 100 2 (2019) Spain (14.7) 0 0 0 Youth unemployment (%, ILO 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 EU (16.3) ABI (left axis, €m) # of projects (right axis) ICA 4 Financial Institutions est.) (2019) 39.2 Spain (33.2) Sustainable Infrastructure share of youth not in employment, Portugal (17.7) Portfolio Dynamics Transition Gaps2 education or training (NEET) Competitive Female labour force 2500 800 10 EU (51.1) 4 8 participation (%, ILO est.) 45 Spain (51.4) 2000 Well- Portugal (53.1) 494 600 Integrated 6 (2019) 442 Governed 1500 4 343 400 2 274 271 Energy intensity Spain (0.08) 1000 0 0.09 5 Portugal (0.1) 200 (TPES/GDP) (2017) 500 Investments (€m) Resilient Green 0 0 Emission intensity/GDP EU (0.184) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0.274 Portugal (0.201) Portfolio Operating Assets Disbursments (right axis) Inclusive 5 Greece Advanced Comparators EBRD (kgCO2/10’$) (2014) Spain (0.171) 1 Cumulative Bank Investment: 5 year rolling basis on portfolio. 2 Cf. EBRD Transition Report 2017-2018. 3 World Bank WDI. 4 International Labour Organisation. PUBLIC5 IEA’s Energy Atlas. 5 1. Implementation of Previous Strategy (2016-2019) 1.1. Key Transition Results achieved under previous Country Strategy Strategic Alignment 2016-2019 TC, grants and concessional loans Transition Impact Performance* Cumulative Annual Business Investment (ABI) Off- Priority 3, Priority 1, Priority 3, Priority 1, track: 25% 26% 27% 50% 11% € 2,243 m On- Cumulative track: Priority 2 TFP Priority 2, 89% 49% 23% Priority 1: Support the resurgence and enhance the resilience of the private sector through a shift to a more export-oriented growth model Key Transition Results Cumulative ABI breakdown • Supported the return of Greek corporates to the capital market by arranging a €339m syndicated loan for OTE to upgrade under Priority 1 (%) ICT infrastructure in the country and a €85m syndicated facility for its mobile operator Cosmote to fund green and sustainable energy solutions. Equity & • Strengthened corporate resource efficiency and green investments through a €40m loan to support