2012-13 Budget Economic and Fiscal Outlook Budget Paper No. 3 Presented to the Legislative Assembly on 17 May 2012 2012-13 BUDGET ECONOMIC AND FISCAL OUTLOOK Budget Paper No. 3 PRESENTED TO THE LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY ON 17 MAY 2012 2012-13 Economic and Fiscal Outlook © Government of Western Australia Excerpts from this publication may be reproduced, with appropriate acknowledgement, as permitted under the Copyright Act. For further information please contact: Department of Treasury Locked Bag 11 Cloisters Square WA 6850 Telephone: +61 8 6551 2777 Facsimile: +61 8 6551 2500 Email: [email protected] Website: http://ourstatebudget.wa.gov.au Published May 2012 John A. Strijk, Government Printer ISSN 1448–2630 2012-13 BUDGET ECONOMIC AND FISCAL OUTLOOK TABLE OF CONTENTS Page UNDER TREASURER’S CERTIFICATION ....................................................................... i CHAPTER 1: OVERVIEW..................................................................................................... 1 Economic and Revenue Outlook .............................................................................................. 3 Fiscal Outlook............................................................................................................................ 5 Budget Objectives...................................................................................................................... 8 Leadership................................................................................................................................ 8 Supporting Our Community..................................................................................................... 10 Building the State..................................................................................................................... 13 CHAPTER 2: THE WESTERN AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY............................................ 15 Overview .................................................................................................................................... 15 Global Outlook .......................................................................................................................... 19 Global Commodity Market ...................................................................................................... 20 Household Sector....................................................................................................................... 21 Household Spending ................................................................................................................ 21 Housing Demand...................................................................................................................... 21 Business Investment .................................................................................................................. 22 Government Sector.................................................................................................................... 24 Government Consumption ....................................................................................................... 24 Government Investment........................................................................................................... 24 International Trade................................................................................................................... 24 Exports ..................................................................................................................................... 24 Imports ..................................................................................................................................... 25 Labour Market .......................................................................................................................... 25 Employment............................................................................................................................. 25 Unemployment and Participation............................................................................................. 26 Wages....................................................................................................................................... 27 Prices .......................................................................................................................................... 28 Consumer Prices Index ............................................................................................................ 28 Risks to the Outlook.................................................................................................................. 29 Global Risks............................................................................................................................. 29 Domestic Risks ........................................................................................................................ 30 CHAPTER 3: FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS AND FISCAL STRATEGY ...................... 33 Overview .................................................................................................................................... 33 Summary of Financial Projections........................................................................................... 38 General Government Sector..................................................................................................... 38 Summary ................................................................................................................................ 38 Operating Statement .............................................................................................................. 42 Capital Investment................................................................................................................. 48 Balance Sheet......................................................................................................................... 49 Cashflow Statement ............................................................................................................... 51 Total Public Sector................................................................................................................... 51 Summary ................................................................................................................................ 51 Operating Statement .............................................................................................................. 52 Capital Investment................................................................................................................. 54 Balance Sheet......................................................................................................................... 55 Cashflow Statement ............................................................................................................... 56 Net Debt and Net Financial Liabilities..................................................................................... 56 Fiscal Strategy............................................................................................................................ 60 Financial Targets...................................................................................................................... 60 Statement of Risks..................................................................................................................... 67 CHAPTER 4: GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE.................................................... 77 Overview .................................................................................................................................... 77 2011-12 Estimated Actual........................................................................................................ 79 2012-13 and Beyond ................................................................................................................ 79 Revenue Measures..................................................................................................................... 82 Taxation Revenue...................................................................................................................... 91 Commonwealth Grants............................................................................................................. 95 Royalty Income.......................................................................................................................... 108 Other Revenue ........................................................................................................................... 113 CHAPTER 5: GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENSES................................................... 125 Overview .................................................................................................................................... 125 Leadership ............................................................................................................................... 126 Supporting Our Community..................................................................................................... 127 Building the State..................................................................................................................... 130 Major Expense Changes by Portfolio ...................................................................................... 132 Summary.................................................................................................................................