The Future of Trucks Implications for energy and the environment The views expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the views or policy of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Secretariat or of its individual member countries. The paper does not constitute advice on any specific issue or situation. The IEA makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, in respect of the paper’s content (including its completeness or accuracy) and shall not be responsible for any use of, or reliance on, the paper. Comments are welcome, directed to [email protected]. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY INTERNATIONAL INSIGHTS SERIES 2O17 SERIES INSIGHTS The Future of Trucks Implications for energy and the environment INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY INTERNATIONAL INSIGHTS SERIES 2O17 SERIES INSIGHTS INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The International Energy Agency (IEA), an autonomous agency, was established in November 1974. Its primary mandate was – and is – two-fold: to promote energy security amongst its member countries through collective response to physical disruptions in oil supply, and provide authoritative research and analysis on ways to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 29 member countries and beyond. The IEA carries out a comprehensive programme of energy co-operation among its member countries, each of which is obliged to hold oil stocks equivalent to 90 days of its net imports. The Agency’s aims include the following objectives: n Secure member countries’ access to reliable and ample supplies of all forms of energy; in particular, through maintaining effective emergency response capabilities in case of oil supply disruptions. n Promote sustainable energy policies that spur economic growth and environmental protection in a global context – particularly in terms of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions that contribute to climate change. n Improve transparency of international markets through collection and analysis of energy data. n Support global collaboration on energy technology to secure future energy supplies and mitigate their environmental impact, including through improved energy efficiency and development and deployment of low-carbon technologies. n Find solutions to global energy challenges through engagement and dialogue with non-member countries, industry, international organisations and other stakeholders. IEA member countries: Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Secure Sustainable Hungary Together Ireland Italy Japan Korea Luxembourg Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic © OECD/IEA, 2017 Spain International Energy Agency Sweden Website: www.iea.org Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom Please note that this publication United States is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The European Commission The terms and conditions are also participates in available online at www.iea.org/t&c/ the work of the IEA. © OECD/IEA 2017 The Future of Trucks Implications for energy and the environment Acknowledgements This report was prepared in the Directorate of Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks (STO) of the International Energy Agency (IEA), under the Direction of Kamel Ben Naceur. Pierpaolo Cazzola and Timur Gül led this activity. The report was written by Jacob Teter, Pierpaolo Page | 3 Cazzola and Timur Gül, with significant contributions from Eamonn Mulholland. Other IEA contributors include Pharoah Le Feuvre (biofuels); Simon Bennett (market and policies); Paul Hugues (biofuels cost assessment and energy and emissions decompositions); Zoe Lagarde (distance-based pricing); Volker Kraayvanger and Pedro Cespedes Ruiz (natural gas); Tyler Bryant and Sacha Scheffer (fuel economy standards and high-capacity vehicles); and Emanuele Bianco (Power-to-X fuels). Zane McDonald and Erik Mahoney also contributed to the analysis. External reviewers include Alan McKinnon (Kuehne Logistics University), Wolfgang Schade (M-Five), Manfred Schuckert (Daimler), Magnus Lindgren (Swedish Transport Administration), Buddy Polovick (US Environmental Protection Agency), Dave Mullaney (Rocky Mountain Institute), Florian Kleiner (German Aerospace Center), Gian Gomes Marques (Volkswagen AG), Guillaume de Smedt (Air Liquide), Jon Stenning (Cambridge Econometrics), Jacques Leonardi (University of Westminster), Nils-Olof Nylund (Technical Research Centre of Finland [VTT]), Oscar Delgado (International Council on Clean Transportation [ICCT]), Andrew Palmer (Heriot-Watt University), Herbert Fabian (UN Environment), Mark Schipper (Energy Information Administration of the United States), Patrik Akerman (Siemens), Pia Agatep (Clean Air Asia), Raimonds Aronietis (International Transport Forum [ITF]), Sophie Punte (Smart Freight Centre), Sudhir Gota (SLoCaT Secretariat), Todd Onderdonk (ExxonMobil), Urs Ruth (Bosch), William Todts (Transport & Environment), Jacques Marmy (International Road Transport Union [IRU]), Tiziana Frongia, Nikolaus Steininger and Juan-Nicolas Ibanez (European Commission), Per Hanarp (Volvo Trucks), Patrice Nogues (EDF), Anant D. Vyas (Argonne National Laboratory), Takanori Shiina (Honda), and Alvin Meija (Clean Air Asia). External reviewers from the following bodies provided comment to the biofuels section of the report: European Biogas Association (EBA), Neste Oy (Anselm Eisentraut), Energiforsk – the Swedish Energy Research Centre (Mattias Svensson), Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ(Eric Billig). The Advanced Motor Fuels and the Bioenergy IEA Technology Collaboration Programmes also contributed to the review. The report benefited from a joint workshop organised by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission and the IEA on the future of trucks for energy and environment, held on 8 November 2016 and attended by several stakeholders, including representatives of truck manufacturers (Daimler, Scania, Volkswagen, Volvo Trucks), energy companies (Shell, ExxonMobil), other industries (Arconic, Bosch, BorgWarner, Eaton, Michelin, Siemens, Wabco), industry associations (European Automobile Manufacturers Association [ACEA], European Liaison Committee of Common Market Forwarders [CLECAT], IRU, World Business Council for Sustainable Development [WBCSD]), intergovernmental organisations (UN 2017 Environment), non-governmental and non-profit organisations (Clean Air Asia, Connekt, ICCT, Smart Freight Centre, The Energy and Resources Institute [TERI], Transport & Environment), governmental bodies (European Commission, South African National Energy Development OECD/IEA, Institute), academic and research institutions (Fraunhofer Institute for Material Flow and © The Future of Trucks © OECD/IEA 2017 Implications for energy and the environment Logistics, German Aerospace Center, Heriot Watt University, IFSTTAR, KAPSARC, Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research [TNO], Kuehne Logistics University, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, University of Cambridge, University of Gothenburg, University of Westminster, VTT) and consultancy firms (Ricardo Energy & Environment , CE Delft, M-FIVE). The agenda, the presentations and the summary of the workshop are available on the IEA Page | 4 web site: www.iea.org/workshops/the-future-role-of-trucks-for-energy-and-environment.html. IEA reviewers included Rebecca Gaghen, Kamel Ben Naceur and Jean-Francois Gagné. The report was edited by Adam Majoe. 2017 OECD/IEA, © © OECD/IEA 2017 The Future of Trucks Implications for energy and the environment Table of contents Executive summary ................................................................................................................ 9 Introduction ..........................................................................................................................11 The role of trucks in the energy system .................................................................................. 15 Page | 5 Energy use and emissions from road freight vehicles ................................................................. 16 Energy use ............................................................................................................................... 16 Carbon dioxide emissions ........................................................................................................ 18 Air pollutant emissions ............................................................................................................ 20 Drivers of road freight activity .................................................................................................... 21 Road freight activity and economic growth ............................................................................ 21 Vehicle activity, loads and mileages ........................................................................................ 25 Vehicle stocks .......................................................................................................................... 29 Sales of new heavy-duty trucks ................................................................................................... 31 Regional trends ....................................................................................................................... 33 The market for logistics services ............................................................................................. 36 Road freight fuel intensity and policy frameworks ..................................................................... 37 Fuel intensity of road freight