Report GVA St Catherine’s Court Berkeley Place Bristol BS8 1BQ Cotswold Retail Study Update 2016 Cotswold District Council June 2017 gva.co.uk CONTENTS 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 3 2. Planning Policy Context .................................................................................................................7 3. Retail and Leisure Trends .............................................................................................................16 4. The Sub-Regional Retail Hierarchy ..............................................................................................27 5. The Health of Defined Town Centres and Provision ...................................................................34 6. The Need for Retail Floorspace in Cotswold District ..................................................................89 7. Assessment of Potential Development Sites and Recommendations Regarding Development Plan Policy ..........................................................................................................113 8. Summary and Conclusions ........................................................................................................126 Appendices Appendix A Study area plan Appendix B Quantitative need assessment tables Appendix C Land Use Plans Appendix D Brewery car park and adjacent areas plan gva.co.uk Cotswold District Council Cotswold Retail Study 2016 1. Introduction Scope and Purpose 1.1 This report has been prepared by Bilfinger GVA (‘GVA’) in a response to an instruction by Cotswold District Council (‘CDC’) to prepare a Retail Study for the Cotswold District administrative area. The study will provide essential evidence base information to assist CDC in the continued production of the Cotswold District Local Plan 2011-2031 and to assist CDC’s development management function. 1.2 The most recent retail study document prepared for CDC’s development plan evidence is the Retail Study volume of the Cotswold Economy Study 2012 (‘the 2012 Retail Study’), completed by Peter Brett Associates (‘PBA’). Since the completion of the 2012 Retail Study the UK’s economic climate has continued to experienced significant shifts, including the on-going effects of the economic downturn, changes in the retail sector, updated forecasts for future retail expenditure growth and is now experiencing the after-effects of the referendum decision in June 2016 for the UK to leave the European Union. As a consequence, there is a need to provide an up-to- date evidence base document which examines a range of related issues, including current shopping patterns, indicators of town centre health and the need for new retail floorspace across the Cotswold administrative area. 1.3 The objectives of this study, as identified in the brief issued by CDC are as follows: determine the scale of convenience and comparison goods retail floorspace required over the plan period and where and when it is needed; review the retail policies in the Local Plan; review development opportunities and ‘town centre’ boundaries; and consider any relevant issues arising from other public examinations. 1.4 In order to achieve the above aims, CDC requires a comprehensive analysis of retailing and town centre health across its administrative area. Accordingly this study includes the following key components: June 2017 gva.co.uk 3 Cotswold District Council Cotswold Retail Study 2016 An assessment of the role and function of the main town centres in Cotswold District in the wider sub-region. A detailed assessment of shopping patterns within Cotswold District and the wider catchment area. A review of the 17 most sustainable settlements as identified in the Local Plan Submission Draft June 2016. These 17 are referred to in the Local Plan as the Principal Settlements. This study therefore includes a review of the health and function of each of the 10 defined ‘town centres1’ and 7 other Principal Settlements across CDC’s administrative area, focusing upon their land use profile and associated shopping patterns. An assessment of existing shopping patterns and store/centre turnover levels for convenience and comparison goods shopping. An assessment of the likely retail expenditure capacity to support new convenience and comparison goods2 floorspace in the main 10 ‘town centres’ in the District. An assessment of the suitability, availability and viability of sequentially preferable sites to accommodate the identified quantitative and qualitative needs. Provision of advice on planning policies in the Local Plan for assessing retail development proposals outside of town centres and the various ‘town centre’ boundary definitions across the District. 1.5 The development strategy of the emerging Local Plan identifies 17 Principal Settlements that are considered the most sustainable locations in the District for accommodating future growth. This Study has split the 17 Principal Settlements into 10 Principal 1 For the avoidance of doubt, the use of the term ‘town centre’ within this report refers to all of the four tiers of centre identified in the emerging Local Plan retail hierarchy, as per the NPPF definition of ‘town centres’ even though some, such as Bourton-on-the-Water and South Cerney are villages. The Local Plan therefore refers to ‘town centres’ as ‘centres’. 2 Convenience goods are defined as food and non-alcoholic drinks, tobacco, alcohol, newspapers and 90% of non- durable household goods (Non-durable household goods comprise cleaning materials, kitchen disposables, household hardware and appliances, kitchen gloves, cloths etc and pins, needles, tape measures and nuts and bolts). Comparison goods are defined as all other non-food retail goods (such as clothing, footwear, furniture, carpets, household textiles, home furnishings, electrical goods, toys, games, health and beauty, jewellery, glassware, tableware, pet goods and bicycles. June 2017 gva.co.uk 4 Cotswold District Council Cotswold Retail Study 2016 Settlements with a defined ‘Town Centre’ and 7 Principal Settlements without a defined ‘town centre’, based on their size, retail offer, role and function. 1.6 The ten ‘town centres’ and seven other Principal Settlements which have been assessed are: Principal Settlements with ‘Town Centres’: Cirencester, Bourton-on-the-Water, Northleach, Stow-on-the-Wold, Moreton-in-Marsh, Tetbury, Chipping Campden, Fairford, Lechlade and South Cerney. Other Principal Settlements: Andoversford, Blockley, Down Ampney, Kemble, Mickleton, Upper Rissington and Willersey 1.7 Key contributors to the above tasks have been a number of items of empirical research. First, the CDC and GVA have commissioned a new bespoke survey of household shopping patterns (‘the 2016 household survey’) covering the Council’s administrative area and extending into surrounding areas. The survey has sought data on shopping patterns for convenience and comparison goods shopping, along with the usage of the main ‘town centres’. The results of the 2016 household survey have been used to inform the quantitative assessment of shopping patterns and expenditure flows and the subsequent retail need assessment. 1.8 The second area of empirical research has been in relation to the assessment of the health of the 10 ‘town centres’ across the District and also 7 of the other Principal Settlements across the CDC administrative area. This exercise has incorporated land use surveys of these defined centres, along with a review of wider health-check indicators and an appraisal of the results of the household survey data, particularly in regard to qualitative issues. 1.9 In addition, as part of the assessment of key town centre health issues, CDC has invited a number of Town and Parish Council across the District to provide their views regarding the key issues which are affecting retailing and town centre health. A number of these Councils have responded to this invitation and their contributions are recorded in Section 5 of this report. 1.10 For the avoidance of doubt, the majority of this study was undertaken in 2016 with subsequent minor amendments in April 2017 and a publication date of June 2017. June 2017 gva.co.uk 5 Cotswold District Council Cotswold Retail Study 2016 Contents of Report 1.11 The remainder of this report, relating to the stage one work, is structured as follows: Section 2 outlines the current local and national planning policy context for retail and leisure development issues in Cotswold District, including the existing and emerging town centre strategies, along with current national advice and guidance on the preparation of evidence base documents. In Section 3 we outline the current trends in the retail sector in the UK, including the influence of internet shopping, the role of town centres and retail sector trends. Section 4 outlines the sub-regional context for retailing and town centre issues in Cotswold District including the place of the main ‘town centres’ in the wider retail hierarchy and the strategies in surrounding areas which could influence the future of shopping in the District. Section 5 provides our review of the health of the main 10 ‘town centres’ in the District, along with an overview of retail provision in 7 of the other Principal Settlements. This section also includes a review of the main out of centre retail provision in the local area and committed retail and leisure developments. Section 6 provides an assessment of