Cenovus TL ULC Telephone Lake Project Volume 2 – Environmental Impact Assessment December 2011 SECTION 17.0 – SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE 17.0 SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT ............................................................ 17-1 17.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 17-1 17.2 Study Area ........................................................................................................ 17-1 17.2.1 Spatial .............................................................................................. 17-1 17.2.2 Temporal .......................................................................................... 17-3 17.3 Assessment Approach ..................................................................................... 17-3 17.3.1 Issues Identification ......................................................................... 17-3 17.3.2 Scoping Considerations ................................................................... 17-3 17.3.3 Socio-Economic Indicators .............................................................. 17-4 17.4 Methods ............................................................................................................ 17-6 17.4.1 Characterization of Baseline Conditions .......................................... 17-6 17.4.2 Impact Assessment .......................................................................... 17-6 17.5 Baseline Case .................................................................................................. 17-7 17.5.1 Regional Overview ........................................................................... 17-7 17.5.2 Historical Context ............................................................................. 17-7 17.5.3 Population ........................................................................................ 17-8 17.5.4 Economy ........................................................................................ 17-16 17.5.5 Housing and Accommodation ........................................................ 17-21 17.5.6 Community Infrastructure ............................................................... 17-23 17.5.7 Health Services .............................................................................. 17-25 17.5.8 Community and Social Services .................................................... 17-26 17.5.9 Education ....................................................................................... 17-28 17.5.10 Protective and Emergency Services .............................................. 17-32 17.5.11 Recreational and Leisure Services ................................................ 17-33 17.5.12 Transportation ................................................................................ 17-33 17.5.13 Local Fiscal Environment ............................................................... 17-38 17.5.14 Aboriginal Population ..................................................................... 17-39 17.6 Application Case ............................................................................................ 17-43 17.6.1 Project Description ......................................................................... 17-43 17.6.2 Construction Phase ........................................................................ 17-48 17.6.3 Operations Phase .......................................................................... 17-62 17.7 Planned Development Case ........................................................................... 17-68 17.8 Monitoring ....................................................................................................... 17-68 17.9 Summary ........................................................................................................ 17-69 17.9.1 Construction ................................................................................... 17-69 17.9.2 Operations ..................................................................................... 17-70 17.10 Literature Cited ............................................................................................... 17-71 Table of Contents Cenovus TL ULC Telephone Lake Project Volume 2 – Environmental Impact Assessment December 2011 TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont) PAGE LIST OF TABLES Table 17.3-1: Socio-Economic Indicators ........................................................................... 17-4 Table 17.3-2: Assessment Criteria Unique to the SEIA ...................................................... 17-5 Table 17.3-3: Attributes Likely to Result in a “High” Final Impact Rating ............................ 17-5 Table 17.5-1: Official Population of the Socio-Economic Regional Study Area .................. 17-8 Table 17.5-2: Actual Population of the Socio-Economic Regional Study Area ................... 17-9 Table 17.5-3: Labour Force Participation and Unemployment Rates in RMWB, 2006 ..... 17-16 Table 17.5-4: Experienced Labour Force by Industry Sector, 2006 .................................. 17-17 Table 17.5-5: Workforce Employment by Industry Sector, 2006 ....................................... 17-18 Table 17.5-6: Experienced Labour Force by Occupational Group, 2006 .......................... 17-18 Table 17.5-7: Education Attainment by the Study Area Population (2006) ....................... 17-29 Table 17.5-8: On and Off Reserve First Nation Populations (2011) ................................. 17-39 Table 17.5-9: Selected Demographic Characteristics of On and Off Reserve First Nation Populations (2006) .......................................................................... 17-40 Table 17.5-10: Selected Educational Characteristics of On and Off Reserve First Nation Populations (2006) .......................................................................... 17-41 Table 17.5-11: Selected Language Characteristics of On and Off Reserve First Nation Populations (2006) ...................................................................................... 17-41 Table 17.5-12: Selected Economic Characteristics of On and Off Reserve First Nation Populations (2006) ...................................................................................... 17-42 Table 17.6-1: Estimated Capital Costs of Project Development ....................................... 17-43 Table 17.6-2: Geographic Distribution of Capital Expenditures ........................................ 17-49 Table 17.6-3: Alberta Portion of Each Cost Component Apportioned to Standard Industry Classifications ............................................................................... 17-49 Table 17.6-4: Impacts of Project Construction on the Alberta Economy ........................... 17-50 Table 17.6-5: Traffic Volumes on Regional Highways (2010) ........................................... 17-61 Table 17.6-6: Geographic Distribution of Annual Operating Expenditures ....................... 17-62 Table 17.6-7: Annual Impacts of Project Operation on the Alberta Economy ................... 17-63 Table 17.6-8: Annual Impacts of Additional Drilling and Completions .............................. 17-63 Table 17.9-1: Summary of Project Impacts During Construction ...................................... 17-69 Table 17.9-2: Summary of Annual Project Impacts During Operation .............................. 17-71 Table of Contents Cenovus TL ULC Telephone Lake Project Volume 2 – Environmental Impact Assessment December 2011 TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont) PAGE LIST OF FIGURES Figure 17.2-1: Socio-Economic Regional Study Area .......................................................... 17-2 Figure 17.5-1: Age Composition of the Regional and Provincial Population ...................... 17-10 Figure 17.5-2: Age and Gender of the Regional Population, 2006 .................................... 17-11 Figure 17.5-3: Legal Marital Status of People Aged 15 Years or Older, 2006 ................... 17-12 Figure 17.5-4: Household Characteristics, 2006 ................................................................ 17-13 Figure 17.5-5: Family Characteristics, 2006 ....................................................................... 17-14 Figure 17.5-6: Length of Residency in RMWB ................................................................... 17-15 Figure 17.5-7: Projected Expenditures on Oil Sands Construction .................................... 17-21 Figure 17.5-8: Trends in Average Annual Daily Traffic on Highways in the RMWB ........... 17-34 Figure 17.5-9: Average Annual Daily Traffic Counts on Highway 63 around Fort McMurray, 2010 .......................................................................................... 17-35 Figure 17.5-10: Composition of Traffic In and Around Fort McMurray ................................. 17-36 Figure 17.6-1: Estimated Annual Capital Costs of Project Development Through 2019 .... 17-44 Figure 17.6-2: Annual Operating Costs in a Typical Year .................................................. 17-44 Figure 17.6-3: Summary of Provincial Employment Impacts from Project Construction .... 17-50 Figure 17.6-4: Labour Market Conditions in Alberta ........................................................... 17-51 Figure 17.6-5: Summary of Regional Construction Employment ....................................... 17-53 Figure 17.6-6: Employment of Regional Residents during Construction ............................ 17-55 Table of Contents Cenovus TL ULC Telephone Lake Project Volume 2 – Environmental Impact Assessment December