Power & Utilities May 2020 Newsletter Power & Utilities in Europe Commodities Crude oil ($/bbl) Having recovered in Q4 2019 to reach the highest levels observed since Q2 2019, both Brent and WTI oil prices fell dramatically by around 47 percent Crude oil ($/bbl) across Q1 2020 in response to both demand and supply side shocks, reaching 90 US$33.73/bbl and US$30.46/bbl respectively on average by the end of 80 March 2020. Oil prices fell so significantly in February that analysts reported 70 a temporary ‘contango’ market, where purchasing oil for storage was briefly 60 moreSpot profitable Brent than sale. 50 Spot WTI 40 TheFuture first Brent quarter of 2020 was overshadowed by unprecedented demand-side 30 collapseFutureWTI that impacted all fuel commodities. The novel coronavirus outbreak, 20 henceforth COVID-19, originated in Wuhan, China and culminated in mass worldwide lockdown of over 25% of the global population, which applied increasing downward pressure on prices as global demand for oil and other Spot Brent Future Brent Source: Bloomberg fuels contracted strongly in both consumer and industrial markets from the Spot WTI Future WTI end of January onwards. By February, the IEA published estimates that global oil demand was set to fall to the lowest level since the great recession, with reduced demand expectations and applied further downward pressure on price. Indeed, by March investor disillusionment in oil markets led to a large increase in speculative investment in the commodity, further marginalising the otherwise healthy fundamentals observed before the COVID-19 outbreak. These movements were compounded by escalation of geopolitical supply-side uncertainty across the quarter. In early January, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard commander, Qassem Soleimani, was killed by a missile strike in Baghdad, leading to strong contractionary supply-side sentiment from crude investors that applied upward pressure on price. Confidence surrounding prompt US de-escalation of political tensions following the attack and the relatively high oil price observed in the market following the strong recovery in Q4 2019, confounded these pressures. Supply-side sentiment was also rendered volatile across the quarter by tensions between members of the Opec+ oil alliance. A reported disagreement over expected production cuts following the spread of COVID-19 led to Russian defection from the alliance, and a price war was triggered resulting in expectations of oversupply coupled with strong price cuts. Newsletter Power & Utilities Another commodity market impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the UK’s NPB Gas (€/MWh) gas benchmark and the Dutch TTF equivalent each fell by over 30% to €8.64/ mWh and €6.83/mWh on average by the end of the first quarter of 2020 - the lowest levels observed in their respective time series. Emerging from a mild 30 winter applied downward pressure on price as seasonal household demand 26 contracted month-on-month, whilst oversupply of natural gas continued, 22 although the global economic lockdown initialised following the COVID-19 18 outbreak stymied gas delivery. 14 10 As was the case with oil, global quarantine increasingly hindered demand 6 for gas across the quarter, applying strong downward pressure on price. The positive influences of trade war de-escalation between the US and China characterising a strong international demand for gas at the start of the quarter Spot NBP Future NBP Source: Bloomberg were quickly eliminated as the pandemic spread, with projections of global gas Spot TTF Future TTF demand falling in line with industry shutdown and news that gas exporters increasingly were unable to establish contracts with importing counterparties. On the supply-side, additional influences interacted with the large downward demand-side pressures on price. A deal announced between Russia and Ukraine extending gas supplies through existing central European pipelines led to an increase in supply expectations in early January 2020, which put downward pressure on gas prices. Furthermore, Gazprom announced plans to continue the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline without help of foreign countries, which maintained ongoing uncertainty in modes of European gas supply, but contributed to an overall expansionary supply sentiment. Inter-continental pressures confounded this effect somewhat, as persistently low prices led to a projected fall in US natural gas production for the first time since 2016. As the COVID-19 crisis developed in February, Chinese state-tied LNG importers began to announce plans to freeze contracts – predominantly for seaborne gas imports – as domestic demand became increasingly suppressed. These reduced supply expectations contributed some mitigating influence on downward price trends. In accordance with the EU’s focus on renewable energy and reducing coal Coal ($/metric ton) fired power generation to reduce carbon emissions, ARA prices continued their decline in the first quarter of 2020, falling 12% to settle at $47.40 per metric tonne on average by the end of March. The observed downward price 110 movements of the index likely under-represent coal fundamentals; it is likely 100 that a seasonal surge in demand is priced into these movements, with coal 90 producers burning stock in preparation for a longer term shift away from coal 80 supply. 70 60 The COVID-19 pandemic overshadowed the nuanced dynamics of coal’s 50 demand-side, with industrial demand for the fuel slashed following global 40 lockdown. This demand fallout is the predominant driver of the downward price trend observed. Some possibly positive demand influence may have been priced into this trend, as burning of European coal stockpiles may be Spot ARA Future ARA Source: Bloomberg considered a viable substitution for gas in short-term power generation under circumstances of contract cancellation or freezing. Supply of coal, which is being phased out gradually from EU economies, continued its downward trajectory in January following Germany’s announcement that it will substitute from coal power completely by 2038 in a €40bn package. Coal’s decline was further accentuated in February following news that Peabody Energy, the world’s largest private coal producer, suspended dividend payments following 2019’s warm winter leading to gas prices undercutting those of coal, and had a large-scale merger with Arch Coal blocked by US antitrust regulators. Finally, London’s Anglo Pacific group formally announced its divestment from coal towards more green commodities. These supply-side pressures likely mitigated the demand-side decline of coal, leading to the shallow curve observed across the quarter. 2 Newsletter Power & Utilities Carbon prices sharply contracted in the first quarter in line with global demand Carbon (€/ton) fallout triggered by COVID-19, falling by approximately 19% on average from December 2019 to March 2020 to €19.83 per metric tonne. Analysts note that this may mark the end of a speculative buying phase following the introduction 33 Market Stability Reserve (MSR) mechanism which sought to reduce oversupply 28 of carbon credits in the EU market. 23 By the end of Q4 2019, demand sentiment was moderately bullish driven by strong fundamentals, with demand for credits by emitting producers initially 18 expected to continue into 2020. However, COVID-19 superseded these 13 sentiments, with enforced suppression of economic activity leading to heavily 8 reduced demand for all fuels, and hence for traded carbon allowances. 3 The supply-side volatility driven by uncertainty surrounding the UK’s exit from the European Union is likely to still persist beneath the demand-side drivers that dominated commodity markets across the quarter, though Spot EUA Future EUA Source: Bloomberg these influences currently appear negligible given the long-term uncertainty of economic growth. Furthermore, some degree of certainty as to the UK’s withdrawal from the EU ETS carbon scheme can be considered, given Government’s Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy’s previous commitment to continue engaging in an ETS carbon scheme equivalent following an exit from the EU, coupled by the majority government’s commitment to secure this exit. It would be interesting to monitor developments on the oncoming review of MSR, in the next quarter (Q2 2020), in terms of the levels of withdraw rates as an impact of COVID 19. Baseload electricity prices fell by at least 20% on average in the first quarter of Baseload Spot Day Ahead (€/MWh) 2020 for all four of the countries under consideration in this sample, though UK and German prices rose somewhat between February and March, in line 90 with underlying fuel price contractions observed across many commodities triggered by COVID-19. 80 On the demand-side, a warmer-than-expected winter continued to reduce 70 heating requirements for many households, though this downward pressure 60 on price became less pronounced across the quarter as spring approached. Furthermore, baseload electricity prices are downwardly influenced by falling 50 carbon prices, incentivising supply. Industrial demand for baseload electricity was also strongly impacted across Europe due widespread stoppages of 40 commercial and industrial activity enforced following the COVID-19 outbreak 30 from March onwards. 20 Meanwhile, on the supply side renewables continued to fluctuate in their contribution to aggregate energy composition, as storage technology remains small-scale and localised. In particular, wind power generation varied week- Germany UK Italy France Source: Bloomberg on-week, with surges reported frequently in Germany and France. Supply-side disruption from the COVID-19 outbreak was not observed beyond uncertainty regarding the fulfilment of fuel contracts, though planned strikes reduced power generation by 6% of capacity in January. 3 Newsletter Power & Utilities Clean spark spreads, capturing the price surplus or deficit generated by UK pellet & spark spreads burning a natural gas for energy after accounting for carbon credit tariffs, (£/MWh) UK pellet and clean spark spreads (£/MWh) continued to remain positive in the first quarter, though fell further towards 35 35 zero as falling gas prices continued to suppress profitability.