ELECTIONS 2019 IN MOLDOVA: NEW CHALLENGES AND NEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR COOPERATION WITHIN UKRAINE-MOLDOVA-ROMANIA TRIANGLE POLICY PAPER 2 2 Policy Paper INTRODUCTION AUTHORS TEAM General editing: Sergiy Gerasymchuk Angela Gramada, director, Experts for Security and Global Affairs Association (Romania) Armand Goșu, associate professor, University of Bucharest, Faculty of Political Science (Romania) Denis Cenușa, researcher, Institute for Political Science Justus-Liebig University (Giessen, Germany), Associat- ed expertiIn the think-tank “Expert-Grup”, contributor news agency IPN (Moldova) Hanna Shelest, head of International Security Studies department, Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism” Hennadiy Maksak, director, Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism”, Ukrainian National Platform coordinator of the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum Ileana Racheru, researcher, Romanian Diplomatic Institute Nadia Bureiko, expert, Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism” Natalia Stercul, program director, Department of Eastern Studies: Ukraine and Russia, Foreign Policy Associa- tion of Moldova Sergiy Gerasymchuk, head of the South-Eastern Europe Studies department, Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism” Viviana Anghel, associate lecturer, National School of Political Science and Public Administration, faculty of Political Science (Romania) Vlad Lupan, Independent Expert; ex-Ambassador & Permanent Representative of the Republic of Moldova to the United Nations Elections 2019 in Moldova 3 INTRODUCTION CONTENTS MOLDOVA: THE TEST FOR THE DEMOCRATIC AND EUROPEAN CHOICE.................................................................................................................................... 4 General introduction............................................................................................................................................................................................................................4 Moldova dialogue and post-electoral scenarios of European path, Denis Cenușa...............................................................................................5 Path the potential of Russian influence in electoral context (the impact of «Russkiy mir»), Natalia Stercul........................................10 The perspectives of the political process and the prospective foreign policy priorities, Vlad Lupan.......................................................15 General conclusions...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................19 UKRAINE: POLITICAL LESSONS FOR MOLDOVA.....................................................................................................................................................................................20 General Introduction.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................20 Political situation: conflict factors and consolidation options, Nadia Bureiko.......................................................................................................21 Political stability, war between Russia and Ukraine and search for international support, Hanna Shelest.........................................24 The experience of overcoming the Soviet and Russian political legacy, Sergiy Gerasymchuk....................................................................28 Conclusions and recommendations..........................................................................................................................................................................................33 POLITICAL SITUATION AND POLITICAL ACHIEVEMENTS IN ROMANIA......................................................................................................................................36 Romania: from semi-presidentialism accentuated by the president to semi-presidentialism attenuated by the parliamentary majority, Viviana Anghel....................................................................................................................................................................38 Diplomatic Relations between Romania and the Republic of Moldova, Armand Goșu...................................................................................42 Reunification scenario. Political forces and civil society actors in Romania and the Republic of Moldova that promote the reunification. How realistic is the reunification scenario?, Ileana Racheru.......................................................................51 Best practices that Romania can share with Moldova and Ukraine, Angela Gramada....................................................................................56 RESULTS OF THE MOLDOVAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION 2018: EFFECTS ON DEVELOPMENT OF THE POLITICAL SITUATION AND FOREIGN POLICY, Hennadiy Maksak, Sergiy Gerasymchuk........................................................................................................................62 Scenario 1. Socialists and Democrats Alliance......................................................................................................................................................................66 Scenario 2. Socialists Victory.........................................................................................................................................................................................................67 Scenario 3. Everybody against the DPM...................................................................................................................................................................................71 Scenario 4. Incapable coalition.....................................................................................................................................................................................................72 General recommendations.............................................................................................................................................................................................................73 4 Denis Cenușa, Natalia Stercul, Vlad lupan Moldova: the test for the democratic and european choice GENERAL INTRODUCTION oldova is an important part of the intricate regional situation in the Black Sea region. Redefining Russia’s Mrole by the states of the region, created the prerequisites for bringing together the positions of Ukraine and Moldova on a whole range of issues, also it led to the resetting of Ukrainian-Romanian relations. Regional transformation was the basis that united the tripartite platform of cooperation - Ukraine, Republic of Moldova and Romania. The parliamentary elections in the Republic of Moldova, which will take place in 2019, will largely determine new challenges and opportunities for this format of cooperation. The strengthening of Russian influence in Moldova does not please either Ukraine or Romania, which has its own interests in this zone. Moreover, the fate of the Transnistrian conflict largely depends on the results of the elections. Approaches that will be applied to the resolution in the Transnistrian conflict can later be used as scenarios for resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict with regard to the Eastern regions of Ukraine. Romania’s contribution to the promo- tion of the democracy in Ukraine and Moldova is extremely important in this context. Dynamic development of relations within the trilateral format and shift away from the policy of small steps are critical at this stage of European integration. The geopolitical subtext of the elections is typical for election campaigns held in the Republic of Moldova. This is due to a whole complex of factors, among which the historical one is defining. In the run-up to the Parliamen- tary elections of 2019, this subtext remains and will be accompanied by very tough geopolitical statements, ma- nipulations that inevitably confront pro-European and pro-Russian interests. Electoral technologies and tactics, administrative resources will again be widely used to lobby the interests of certain candidates in this struggle. Denis Cenușa 5 EU-Moldova dialogue and post-electoral scenarios of european path he toughness of political competition is increas- 1. “Ultimate interest” Ting ahead of 2019 legislative elections that are going to renew, to some extent or completely, the ex- The ruling party (Democratic Party). Since it fully isting political landscape. In condition of public funds undertook the reins of powers in late 20153 after top- under pressure after the banking fraud1, segmented pling ex-prime minister Vlad Filat, and concentrated media space2, more than half of which controlled by the institutional power along 20164, worsening con- the ruling party, and migration-driven shrinking avail- siderably the phenomenon of “state capture”5, the able pool of voters, the interaction with EU and other governing Democratic Party changed few times the external partners becomes vital for political players. tactics in its approach to the EU. In the early stage Since the Association Agreement entered into force of its governing (January – December 2016), the in July 2016, all high rated political parties seek to ap- Democrats focused on rebuilding the credibility and proach the EU, in positive, negative or