MTI Trains, Concert Halls, Airports, and Restaurants—All Soft Targets: Funded by U.S. Department of Services Transit Census California of Water 2012 Transportation What the Terrorist Campaign in France and Belgium Tells Us About the Future of Jihadist Terrorism in Europe MTI ReportMTI 12-02 December 2012 MTI Report WP 12-10 MINETA TRANSPORTATION INSTITUTE MTI FOUNDER Hon. Norman Y. Mineta The Mineta Transportation Institute (MTI) was established by Congress in 1991 as part of the Intermodal Surface Transportation Equity Act (ISTEA) and was reauthorized under the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st century (TEA-21). MTI then successfully MTI BOARD OF TRUSTEES competed to be named a Tier 1 Center in 2002 and 2006 in the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU). Most recently, MTI successfully competed in the Surface Transportation Extension Act of 2011 to Founder, Honorable Norman Joseph Boardman (Ex-Officio) Diane Woodend Jones (TE 2016) Richard A. White (Ex-Officio) be named a Tier 1 Transit-Focused University Transportation Center. The Institute is funded by Congress through the United States Mineta (Ex-Officio) Chief Executive Officer Principal and Chair of Board Interim President and CEO Department of Transportation’s Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology (OST-R), University Transportation Secretary (ret.), US Department of Amtrak Lea+Elliot, Inc. American Public Transportation Transportation Association (APTA) Centers Program, the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans), and by private grants and donations. Vice Chair Anne Canby (TE 2017) Will Kempton (TE 2016) Hill & Knowlton, Inc. Director Executive Director Bud Wright (Ex-Officio) OneRail Coalition California Transportation Executive Director The Institute receives oversight from an internationally respected Board of Trustees whose members represent all major surface Honorary Chair, Honorable Bill Commission American Association of State transportation modes. MTI’s focus on policy and management resulted from a Board assessment of the industry’s unmet needs Shuster (Ex-Officio) Donna DeMartino (TE 2018) Highway and Transportation Officials Chair General Manager and CEO Art Leahy (TE 2018) (AASHTO) and led directly to the choice of the San José State University College of Business as the Institute’s home. The Board provides House Transportation and San Joaquin Regional Transit District CEO policy direction, assists with needs assessment, and connects the Institute and its programs with the international transportation Infrastructure Committee Metrolink Edward Wytkind (Ex-Officio) United States House of William Dorey (TE 2017) President community. Representatives Board of Directors Jean-Pierre Loubinoux (Ex-Officio) Transportation Trades Dept., Granite Construction, Inc. Director General AFL-CIO Honorary Co-Chair, Honorable International Union of Railways MTI’s transportation policy work is centered on three primary responsibilities: Peter DeFazio (Ex-Officio) Malcolm Dougherty (Ex-Officio) (UIC) Vice Chair Director (TE) = Term Expiration or Ex-Officio House Transportation and California Department of Abbas Mohaddes (TE 2018) * = Past Chair, Board of Trustee Research Infrastructure Committee Transportation CEO MTI works to provide policy-oriented research for all levels of Department of Transportation, MTI delivers its classes over United States House of The Mohaddes Group Representatives Mortimer Downey* (TE 2018) government and the private sector to foster the development a state-of-the-art videoconference network throughout President Jeff Morales (TE 2016) of optimum surface transportation systems. Research areas in- the state of California and via webcasting beyond, allowing Chair, Nuria Fernandez Mort Downey Consulting, LLC CEO clude: transportation security; planning and policy development; (TE 2017) California High-Speed Rail Authority working transportation professionals to pursue an advanced General Manager and CEO Rose Guilbault (TE 2017) interrelationships among transportation, land use, and the degree regardless of their location. To meet the needs of Valley Transportation Board Member Beverley Swaim-Staley (TE 2016) environment; transportation finance; and collaborative labor- employers seeking a diverse workforce, MTI’s education Authority Peninsula Corridor Joint Powers President Board (Caltrain) Union Station Redevelopment management relations. Certified Research Associates conduct program promotes enrollment to under-represented groups. Vice Chair, Grace Crunican Corporation the research. Certification requires an advanced degree, gener- (TE 2016) Ed Hamberger (Ex-Officio) General Manager President/CEO Michael Townes* (TE 2017) ally a Ph.D., a record of academic publications, and profession- Information and Technology Transfer Bay Area Rapid Transit District Association of American Railroads Senior Vice President al references. Research projects culminate in a peer-reviewed MTI promotes the availability of completed research to Transit Sector, HNTB Executive Director, Steve Heminger* (TE 2018) publication, available both in hardcopy and on TransWeb, professional organizations and journals and works to Karen Philbrick, Ph.D. Executive Director Marlene Turner, Ph.D. (Ex-Officio) the MTI website (http://transweb.sjsu.edu). integrate the research findings into the graduate education Mineta Transportation Institute Metropolitan Transportation Interim Dean, College of Business San José State University Commission San José State University program. In addition to publishing the studies, the Institute Education also sponsors symposia to disseminate research results The educational goal of the Institute is to provide graduate-lev- to transportation professionals and encourages Research el education to students seeking a career in the development Associates to present their findings at conferences. The Directors Research Associates Policy Oversight Committee and operation of surface transportation programs. MTI, through World in Motion, MTI’s quarterly newsletter, covers Karen Philbrick, Ph.D. Asha Weinstein Agrawal, Ph.D. Frances Edwards, Ph.D. San José State University, offers an AACSB-accredited Master of innovation in the Institute’s research and education pro- Executive Director Urban and Regional Planning Political Science Science in Transportation Management and a graduate Certifi- grams. MTI’s extensive collection of transportation-related San José State University San José State University cate in Transportation Management that serve to prepare the na- publications is integrated into San José State University’s Hon. Rod Diridon, Sr. tion’s transportation managers for the 21st century. The master’s world-class Martin Luther King, Jr. Library. Emeritus Executive Director Jan Botha, Ph.D. Taeho Park, Ph.D. Civil & Environmental Engineering Organization and Management degree is the highest conferred by the California State Uni- San José State University San José State University Peter Haas, Ph.D. versity system. With the active assistance of the California Education Director Katherine Kao Cushing, Ph.D. Diana Wu Enviromental Science Martin Luther King, Jr. Library Donna Maurillo San José State University San José State University Communications Director DISCLAIMER Dave Czerwinski, Ph.D. Brian Michael Jenkins Marketing and Decision Science The contents of this report reflect the views of the authors, who are responsible for the facts and accuracy of the information presented National Transportation Safety and San José State University herein. This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the U.S. Department of Transportation, University Transportation Centers Security Center Program and the California Department of Transportation, in the interest of information exchange. This report does not necessarily reflect the official views or policies of the U.S. government, State of California, or the Mineta Transportation Institute, who assume no liability Asha Weinstein Agrawal, Ph.D. for the contents or use thereof. This report does not constitute a standard specification, design standard, or regulation. National Transportation Finance Center REPORT WP 12-10 TRAINS, CONCERT HALLS, AIRPORTS, AND RESTAURANTS— ALL SOFT TARGETS: WHAT THE TERRORIST CAMPAIGN IN FRANCE AND BELGIUM TELLS US ABOUT THE FUTURE OF JIHADIST TERRORISM IN EUROPE Brian Michael Jenkins Jean-François Clair June 2016 A publication of Mineta Transportation Institute Created by Congress in 1991 College of Business San José State University San José, CA 95192-0219 TECHNICAL REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE 1. Report No. 2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient’s Catalog No. CA-MTI-16-1532 4. Title and Subtitle 5. Report Date Trains, Concert Halls, Airports, and Restaurants—All Soft Targets: June 2016 What the Terrorist Campaign in France and Belgium Tells Us About the Future of 6. Performing Organization Code Jihadist Terrorism in Europe 7. Authors 8. Performing Organization Report Brian Michael Jenkins and Jean-François Clair MTI Report WP 12-10 9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Work Unit No. Mineta Transportation Institute College of Business 11. Contract or Grant No. San José State University DTRT12-G-UTC21 San José, CA 95192-0219 12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address 13. Type of Report and Period Covered California Department of Transportation U.S. Department of Transportation Final Report Division of Research, Innovation and Office of the Assistant Secretary for Systems Information