ANALYSIS OF THE SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE CAMINO DE SANTIAGO PRELIMINARY RESULTS RESULTS PREVIEW AGGREGATED ECONOMIC IMPACT (SMALL IN QUANTITATIVE TERMS BUT VERY RELEVANT QUALITATIVELY SPEAKING) MAJOR IMPACT AT EXAMPLE OF Camino THE LOCAL LEVEL SOCIAL AND (EMPLOYMENT, ENVIRONMENTAL de SOCIAL, CULTURAL SUSTAINABILITY AND Santiago DEMOGRAPHIC) VERY HIGH SATISFACTION OF RESIDENTS: THE CAMINO AS A SOLUTION Each euro spent by a pilgrim generates up Aggregated Each euro spent by a pilgrim generates up to 11% of additional output impact to 18% of additional employment 2,72 21,95 Pilgrim Pilgrim Multiplier: coefficient which measures the quantity of output/income/employment derived directly and indirectly from each unit Total impact of tourist expenditure. Total impact on production on (incl. induced employment Non-residenteffect) per Resident Non-resident (per million Resident each euro euros) 2,60 2,44 18,84 18,58 Pilgrims represent 2.3% of the total tourist ¡EXTERNALITIES! expenditure in Galicia, but each pilgrim bears the same economic impact as 2.3 domestic visitors (differences in the average stay, average expenditure 80% will come and in the multiplier) back as tourists SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT AT THE LOCAL LEVEL Very high heterogeneity WHAT IS THE OPINION OF THE RESIDENTS? Youngest and oldest municipalities in the Melide and French way Pedrafita do Cebreiro Most and least densely populated Very positive overall assessment, with a better evaluation for the population as a whole than for each individual PERCEIVED ECONOMIC IMPACT Positive economic impact: mainly, the residents in both municipalities see the positive economic impacts of the Camino (in terms of income, local business, employment and tourism), but they are not aware of any negative economic impacts (The Camino does not harm other activities and its benefits go to the residents of the municipality) OTHER PERCEIVED ECONOMIC EFFECTS In Pedrafita, the widespread opinion is that The Camino represents the main economic activity of the municipality, but that activity benefits only a few residents. The residents of Melide do not think that The Camino is the main economic activity of the municipality, nor that the benefits from that activity go to a small number of residents. IMPACT AT THE LOCAL SCALE From the estimation of the number of NIGHTS that At the local level, most of the pilgrims spent in Galicia, in each of the indirect and the induced impacts are generated outside municipalities concerned. the municipality Focus on the Direct Impact Public hostels Hotels 156.720 Estimates of the distribution of the nights 388.527 spent by the pilgrims in each municipality 30,00% 25,00% 1.220.313 20,00% 15,00% 10,00% Private hostels 5,00% 675.066 0,00% SOME RESULTS… One pilgrim that spends one night in the municipality is Assuming a daily EXPENDITURE of 50 EUROS equivalent to 1/365 of a permanent resident (61,015,633 euros in total) EQUIVALENT ASSOCIATED POPULATION RATIO BETWEEN THE DIRECT EXPENDITURE OF THE PILGRIMS AND THE GDP OF THE TRIACASTELA MUNICIPALITY IN 2014 PORTOMARIN TRIACASTELA PEDRAFITA PEDRAFITA O PINO PORTOMARIN PALAS DE REI O PINO MELIDE ARZUA PALAS DE REI SARRIA ARZUA SAMOS SARRIA MELIDE SAMOS PARADELA PARADELA MONTERROSO MONTERROSO 0,00% 5,00% 10,00% 15,00% 20,00% 25,00% 30,00% 0,00% 5,00% 10,00% 15,00% 20,00% 25,00% EMPLOYMENT IMPACT The oficial data confirms the importance of the economic activity generated in the municipalities along the French way. EMPLOYMENT IMPACT DATA ON AFFILIATION TO THE SOCIAL SECURITY. RELATIVE CHANGE 2017/2003 0,80 63,9% 0,60 AFFILIATION AT THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH BY MUNICIPALITIES (ANNUAL DATA) The closer to Santiago, the higher the impact 0,40 22,0% 17,8% 18,8% 0,20 7,6% 2,2% 2,8% 3,3% 0,00 -2,2% -1,5% -8,1% -6,8% -0,20 -17,0% THE AFFILIATION PER 1,000 INHABITANTS GREW IN ALL THE MUNICIPALITIES, EXCEPT IN -33,0% -0,40 MONTERROSO SOME FIGURES… In 2009 the French way accounted for 4.26% of the total hotel beds in Galicia, in 2017 was the 8.71%. Among the 5,036 new hotel beds created in Galicia between 2009 and 2017, 30% were established along the French way. The population of the municipalities in the French way represents 1.68% of the total population in Galicia. Heatmap of the supply of accommodation services along the French way Contribution of the Hospitality sector in terms of employees 2008 2010 2016 Share % ARZUA 7 5 3 11,1% MELIDE 5 4 2 20,1% O PINO 4 2 1 17,8% Detail of Portomarín, MONTERROSO 6 5 5 7,7% where the supply of PALAS 6 5 1 16,4% accommodation is PARADELA 7 4 2 16,9% concentrated in the PEDRAFITA 3 3 2 30,5% town centre PORTOMARIN 3 1 1 31,6% SAMOS 4 3 3 14,5% SARRIA 7 6 5 10,5% TRIACASTELA 5 3 1 33,0% GALICIA 8 7 6 6,8% Source: Instituto Galego das Cualificacións SOCIOCULTURAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT Social impact: neutral, without negative impacts Cultural impact: positive, especially regarding the preservation and restoration of the cultural heritage, perceiving the Camino de Santiago as an oportunity to meet new cultures SOCIOCULTURAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT RELATIVE CHANGE OF THE POPULATION BETWEEN 2001- 2016 (MUNICIPAL REGISTER) SARRIA GALICIA PINO (O) Data from the oficial ARZUA statistics shows a MELIDE MONTERROSO very clear regresive PALAS DE REI dynamic PORTOMARIN TRIACASTELA PARADELA PEDRAFITA DO CEBREIRO SAMOS -40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% The general perception is positive SOCIOCULTURAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT An alternative analysis: estimation of the population of the municipalities along the French way using the information of the municipalities that belong to the inner part of Galicia not affected by the Camino de Santiago as a benchmark. CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO THE MOST The closest neighbouring municipalities are the ones that OPTIMISTIC FORECAST show a greater similarity with respect to the reference municipality during the period 1991-2001. PEDRAFITA DO CEBREIRO SARRIA O PINO PALAS DE REI ARZUA PORTOMARIN PARADELA MELIDE TRIACASTELA MONTERROSO SAMOS -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Therefore, the demographic impact is also very relevant Moreover, despite the fact that the population in the administrative register is decreasing, the associated population and the estimations of the equivalent population, which includes the pilgrims weight, (one pilgrim is equivalent to 1/365 of an annual resident in the municipality) show a positive trend for most of the municipalities SUSTAINABILITY The main problems observed by the residents are related to the demography and the economy of the municipality. The Camino de Santiago and the flow of pilgrims is not considered as a problem at all. In fact, taking a look to the results, the Camino de Santiago is perceived as part of the solution, especially in the Pedrafita case. Main problems in the Municipality ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT Positive environmental impact in both municipalities: in general, residents do not see any negative effects, but they observe positive impacts, especially in the case of the landscape care and, to a lesser extent, of the town centre care. Coordinated by: Melchor Fernández and Dolores Riveiro Grupo de Análise e Modelización Económica (GAME).