Clemson University TigerPrints All Dissertations Dissertations December 2019 Development of Blast Risk Assessment Framework for Financial Loss and Casualty Estimation Paresh Chandra Poudel Clemson University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://tigerprints.clemson.edu/all_dissertations Recommended Citation Poudel, Paresh Chandra, "Development of Blast Risk Assessment Framework for Financial Loss and Casualty Estimation" (2019). All Dissertations. 2518. https://tigerprints.clemson.edu/all_dissertations/2518 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Dissertations at TigerPrints. It has been accepted for inclusion in All Dissertations by an authorized administrator of TigerPrints. For more information, please contact [email protected]. DEVELOPMENT OF BLAST RISK ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK FOR FINANCIAL LOSS AND CASUALTY ESTIMATION A Dissertation Presented to the Graduate School of Clemson University In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy Civil Engineering by Paresh C. Poudel December 2019 Accepted by: Dr. Weichiang Pang, Committee Chair Dr. Brandon Ross Dr. Mohammad B. Javanbarg Dr. Thomas E. Cousins ABSTRACT The entire study can be divided into four main studies. Study I presents the development of probabilistic version of popular Kingery and Bulmash (KB) blast model. The probabilistic model was developed by considering the uncertainty in the model quantified using available experimental data. The model was then applied to generate fragility curves are developed for three types of glazing under three common bombing scenarios and study 1995 Oklahoma City damage. Study II discusses on development a blast loss estimation framework for buildings where demand loads are calculated using the probabilistic blast model and capacity form seismic design. Loss for archetypes buildings designed with three levels of seismic design category were estimated using the loss estimation framework. The objective was to see if there is potential benefit in terms of monetary value for three design categories. The results showed that as design level increased from ordinary, intermediate to special moment frame the blast performance was improved for some blast scenarios. In Study III concept of protection zones is presented which are zones in building with varying level of security, has been introduced based on the principle - as security increases the probable size of bomb should decrease. Probable bombs are uniformly placed at each protection zone to create many possible scenarios of terrorism event. The Brussels’ Airport attack of 2016 is studied using this framework and loss values are obtained to understand the associated risk. The results showed that the actual attack could have been ii worse. Strategies for improving security are employed in protection zones and its influence on threat reduction is studied. Study IV is about development of a probabilistic injury model to estimate the consequence of blast injuries to people. The blast parameters (pressure and impulse) are calculated using Kingery and Bulmash blast model. Monte Carlo simulation is used to randomly distribute people on each floor and estimate injury states for each blast scenario due to primary and secondary effects blast. An agent-based model (ABM) was developed to track movement of people in case of multiple blast scenario. The model was used to study three case studies – Brussels’ Airport bombing, Manchester Arena’s Bombing and Oklahoma City Bombing. iii DEDICATION I dedicate this study to my parents, Prakash Chandra Poudel and Shambhavi Poudel for their unconditional love and support; and to my beloved wife Nancy Khanal Chhetri. iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I would like to express my deepest gratitude to my advisor Dr. Weichiang Pang for all his guidance and for always keeping me motivated for research. I would like to thank my PhD committee, Dr. Thomas Cousins, Dr. Brandon Ross and Dr. Mohammad Javanbarg for their comments and help. I would like to extend my sincere gratitude to Dr. Saurabh Prabhu for his help and guidance during my research. I would also like to thank Dr. Mohammadreza Eslami and Dr. Ershad Ziaei for their help in my study, during their time as postdocs in Clemson. Last but not the least, I would like to thank all the faculties, staffs, colleagues, and friends in Clemson University for making my graduate school life enjoyable. v TABLE OF CONTENTS TITLE PAGE ...................................................................................................................... 1 ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................................ II DEDICATION .................................................................................................................. IV ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ................................................................................................. V TABLE OF CONTENTS .................................................................................................. VI LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................ XI LIST OF FIGURES ....................................................................................................... XIII CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................... 22 1.1 Motivation ............................................................................................................... 22 1.2 Objective ................................................................................................................. 26 1.3 Contribution ............................................................................................................ 28 1.4 Organization ............................................................................................................ 29 1.5 References ............................................................................................................... 30 CHAPTER 2 DEVELOPMENT OF A PROBABILISTIC BLAST MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION TO GLAZING FAILURE ASSESSMENT ........................................... 32 2.1 Abstract ................................................................................................................... 32 2.2 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 32 vi 2.3 Background ............................................................................................................. 34 2.3.1 Blast Mechanics ............................................................................................... 34 2.3.2 TNT Equivalency ............................................................................................. 35 2.3.3 Blast Scaling .................................................................................................... 36 2.3.4 Evolution of Blast Models ............................................................................... 37 2.3.5 Selecting Kingery and Bulmash model (KB model). ...................................... 42 2.4 Methodology ........................................................................................................... 45 2.4.1 Assumption ...................................................................................................... 45 2.4.2 Handling Uncertainty in KB model ................................................................. 45 2.4.3 Beta Models ..................................................................................................... 51 2.4.4 Direct and Indirect Line of Sight ..................................................................... 54 2.5 Comparison with Netherton and Stewart model ..................................................... 54 2.6 Application of KB Reflected Beta Model to obtain Glazing Fragility Curves ....... 57 2.7 Application for Oklahoma Bombing Case Study ................................................... 61 2.8 Conclusion .............................................................................................................. 65 2.9 References ............................................................................................................... 66 CHAPTER 3 QUANTIFYING THE BENEFITS OF SEISMIC RESISTANT DESIGN ON BLAST PERFORMANCE OF RC MOMENT FRAME BUILDINGS .................... 72 3.1 Abstract ................................................................................................................... 72 vii 3.2 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 73 3.3 Background ............................................................................................................. 74 3.4 Development of assembly-based loss estimation framework for RC buildings ..... 76 3.4.1 Assembly of building components ................................................................... 77 3.4.2 Demand Estimation .......................................................................................... 78 3.4.3 Capacity Estimation ......................................................................................... 83 3.4.4 Damage Estimation .......................................................................................... 91 3.4.5 Progressive Damage Estimation ...................................................................... 94 3.4.6 Loss Ratio Estimation