Modeling deforestation risk in the Maya Biosphere Reserve, Guatemala Item Type text; Thesis-Reproduction (electronic) Authors Grunberg, Wolfgang Publisher The University of Arizona. Rights Copyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author. Download date 07/10/2021 09:45:22 Link to Item http://hdl.handle.net/10150/278736 INFORMATION TO USERS This manuscript has been reproduced from the microfilm master. UMI films the text directly from the original or copy submitted. Thus, some thesis and dissertation copies are in typewriter ^ce, while others may be from any type of computer printer. The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. 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Bell & Howell lnformatk>n and Learning 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 USA 800-521-0600 MODELE^G DEFORESTATION RISK IN THE MAYA BIOSPHERE RESERVE, GUATEMALA by Wolfgang Griinberg A Thesis Submitted to the Faculty of the SCHOOL OF RENEWABLE NATURAL RESOURCES In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements For the Degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE WITH A MAJOR IN RENEWABLE NATURAL RESOURCES STUDIES In the Graduate College THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA 2000 UMI Number 1401059 ® UMI UMI Microfomi 1401059 Copyright 2000 by Bell & Howell Infomiation and Learning Company. All rights reserved. This microform edition is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. Bell & Howell Information and Leaming Company 300 North Zeeb Road P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 -7 STATEMENT BY AUTHOR This thesis has been subnfutted in partial fulfillment of requirements for an advanced degree at The University of Arizona and is deposited in the University Library to be made available to borrowers under rules of the Library. Brief quotations from this thesis are allowable without special permission, provided that accurate acknowledgment of source is made. Requests for permission for extended quotation from or reproduction of this manuscript in whole or in part may be granted by the head of the major department or the Dean of the Graduate College when in his or her judgement the proposed use of the material is in the interests of scholarship. In all other instances, however, permission must be obtained from the author. SIGNED: APPROVAL BY THESIS COMMITTEE This thesis has been approved on the date shown below: William W. Shaw Date Professor of Renewable Natural Resources D. Phillip Guertin Associate Professor of Watershed Management Wissler Date Assistant Professor of Renewable Natural Resources 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The author would like to thank the following organizations and individuals for their indispensable help: Advanced Resource Technology Group - The University of Arizona, CARE Guatemala, Centro de Monitoreo y Evaluacion (CEMEC) - Consejo Nacional de Areas Protegidas (CONAP), ProPeten - Conservation International (CI), Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) - Gainesville, Roan Balas, Perfecto Carillo, Teresita Chinchilla, Gary Christopherson, Reno Fiedler, Georg Griinberg, D. Phillip Guertin, Vinicio Montero, Randy H. Gimblett, Michael J. Meitner, Gustavo Rodriguez Ortiz, Marco Antonio Palacios, Victor Hugo Ramos, Steven A. Sader, Claudio Saito, Norman B. Schwartz, William W. Shaw, Carlos Soza, Laura Stewart, and Craig Wissler. 4 DEDICATION This thesis is dedicated to my father Georg Griinberg for his enthusiastic and essential support of my studies and research. Che ru Apyka Rendypeguara. 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 LIST OF FIGURES : 7 2 LIST OF TABLES 8 3 LIST OF ACRONYMS 9 4 ABSTRACT 10 5 INTRODUCTION II 5.1 Problem Statement 11 5.2 Statement of Objective 13 5.3 Study Area 14 5.3.1 The Landscape 14 5.3.2 The People 14 5.3.2.1 Itza'Maya 15 5.3.2.2 Ladinos Peteneros 16 5.3.2.3 Highland Mayas 16 5.3.2.4 Ladinos Sureno 17 5.3.3 The Maya Biosphere Reserve 17 6 LITERATURE REVIEW 19 6.1 Man-Made Deforestation - Causes, Consequences, and Trends 19 6.2 Methodology for Modeling Deforestation 21 7 METHODS 24 7.1 Data 24 7.1.1 Forest Cover Change-Detection Images 24 7.1.2 Settlement Data 25 7.1.3 Road Data 27 7.1.4 Soil Data 27 7.1.5 Reference Data 28 7.2 Analysis 29 7.2.1 Settlement Analysis 29 7.2.2 Road Analysis 31 7.2.3 Soil Analysis 32 7.2.4 Deforestation Probability Model 32 7.2.5 Forecasting Deforestation Risk 34 8 RESULTS 37 8.1 Settlements and Deforestation 37 8.2 Roads and Deforestation 41 8.3 Soil Quality and Deforestation 42 8.4 Deforestation Probability 43 8.4.1 Logistic Regression Results 43 8.4.2 Deforestation Probability Model 44 8.5 Deforestation Risk Model 52 8.5.1 Testing the 1999 Forecast 52 8.5.2 The 2001 Deforestation Scenario 55 6 9 DISCUSSION 59 9.1 Modeling Deforestation 59 9.2 Strengths and Limitations of the Deforestation Risk Model 59 9.3 Management Implications and Recommendations 60 9.4 Future Analysis 61 10 APPENDIX A - SETTLEMENT DATABASE 63 11 APPENDIX B - SETTLEMENTS AND ROADS MAP 68 12 APPENDIX C - ARC/INFO COMMANDS 69 13 WORK CITED 70 7 1 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. The Maya Biosphere Reserve (MBR) in relation to Guatemala and the neighboring countries (Image source: ESRI ARC/INFO data set) 12 Figure 2. The Maya Biosphere Reserve and its core, buffer, and transition zones 13 Figure 3. Peten's population estimates according to Grandia (2000) and Schwartz (1990). 15 Figure 4. Annual deforestation rates of the Maya Biosphere Reserve from 1986 to 1999 according to Sader et al. (1997, 2000) 21 Figure 5. Buffering the El Naranjo settlement by the San Pedro River and the surrounding area in 1997 31 Figure 6. Steps taken to create the 1997 descriptive deforestation probability surface and values used to weight the grids 34 Figure 7. Steps taken to forecast the 1999 deforestation probability surface and values used to weight the grids 35 Figure 8. Forecasting the deforested area based on forecasted probability zones and observed deforestation 36 Figure 9. Deforestation distance decay curves of settlements according to primary economic occupation 40 Figure 10. Deforestation distance decay curves of settlements according to their ethnic majority 40 Figure 11. Deforestation trends on various soil classes 42 Figure 12. Percent deforestation observed in low (0) to high (1) deforestation probability zones over time 45 Figure 13. MBR's settlements, roads, and cumulative deforestation in 1986 46 Figure 14. Deforestation probability model for 1986 46 Figure 15. MBR's settlements, roads, and cumulative deforestation in 1990 47 Figure 16. Deforestation probability model for 1990 47 Figure 17. MBR's settlements, roads, and cumulative deforestation in 1993 48 Figure 18. Deforestation probability model for 1993 48 Figure 19. MBR's settlements, roads, and cumulative deforestation in 1995 49 Figure 20. Deforestation probability model for 1995 49 Figure 21. MBR's settlements, roads, and cumulative deforestation in 1997 50 Figure 22. Deforestation probability model for 1997 50 Figure 23. MBR's settlements, roads, and cumulative deforestation in 1999 including man-made wildfires from summer 1998 51 Figure 24. Deforestation probability model for 1999 51 Figure 25. Forecasted deforestation probability model for 1999 53 Figure 26. Observed vs. predicted deforestation area of the 1999 deforestation risk model 54 Figure 27. Forecasted deforestation probability model for 2001 56 Figure 28. 2001 deforestation scenario forecast compared to observed deforestation. ...58 8 2 LIST OF TABLES Table 1. The Maya Biosphere Reserve management units and their areas according to Griinberg and Ramos (1998) 18 Table 2. Soil reclassification according to drainage and soil depth 28 Table 3. Logistic regression results for the deforestation probability model 44 Table 4. Differences between predicted and observed deforestation for 1999 55 Table 5. Differences between the deforestation predicted by the 2001 scenario and observed deforestation for 1999 57 9 3 LIST OF ACRONYMS Acronym Name Translation GATE Centre Agronomico Tropical de Tropical Agronomy Center for Investigacidn y Ensenanza Research and Education CEMEC Centro de Monitoreo y Evaluacion del Center for Monitoring and CONAP Evaluation of CONAP CI Conservation International CONAP Consejo Nacional de Areas Protegidas National Council of Protected Areas ESRI Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc. FAO Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations FDN Fundacion Defensores de la Naturaieza Defenders of Nature Foundation GIS Geographic Information System GPS Global Positioning System