Études de l’Ifri EAST ASIA SECURITY IN FLUX What Regional Order Ahead? Masashi NISHIHARA and Céline PAJON (eds.) May 2020 Center for Asian Studies Ifri is France’s leading independent center for research, information, and debate on major international issues. Founded in 1979 by Thierry de Montbrial, Ifri is an officially recognized nonprofit organization in France (under the 1901 association law). It is independent of any administrative control, setting its own agenda and publishing its work regularly. Following an interdisciplinary approach, Ifri’s studies and debates bring together political decision makers and internationally renowned experts. The opinions expressed in this text are the responsibility of the authors alone. This publication is the result of a collaborative project between the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri) and the Research Institute for Peace and Security (RIPS), Tokyo, Japan. ISBN: 979-10-373-0173-4 © All rights reserved, Ifri, 2020 Cover: © Wikimedia Commons ; U.S. Navy/MC3 Chris Cavagnaro ; Inkdrop (via Shutterstock) ; Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japan ; Alexandros Michailidis (via Shutterstock) ; Truba7113 (via Shutterstock) ; Frederic Legrand - COMEO (via Shutterstock), Clothilde Goujard How to cite this publication: Masashi Nishihara and Céline Pajon (eds.), “East Asia Security in Flux: What Regional Order Ahead?”, Études de l’Ifri, Ifri, April 2020. Ifri 27 rue de la Procession 75740 Paris Cedex 15 – FRANCE Tél. : +33 (0)1 40 61 60 00 – Fax : +33 (0)1 40 61 60 60 E-mail : [email protected] Website : Ifri.org Authors Elena ATANASSOVA-CORNELIS, Senior Lecturer, Antwerp University Emma CHANLETT-AVERY, Research Fellow, US Congressional Research Service, US Patrick CRONIN, Asia-Pacific Security Chair, Hudson Institute Barry DESKER, Distinguished Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Singapore Yoichi KATO, Senior Research Fellow, Asia Pacific Initiative, Japan Masashi NISHIHARA, President, Research Institute for Peace and Security (RIPS), Japan Ramon PACHECO PARDO, KF-VUB Korea Chair at the Institute for European Studies of Vrije Universiteit Brussel (IES-VUB), Reader in International Relations, King’s College London Céline PAJON, Head of Japan Research, Center for Asian Studies, Ifri Niklas SWANSTROM, Director of the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm, Sweden Table of Contents FOREWORDS ........................................................................................ 5 KEYNOTE ADDRESS COMPETING STRATEGIC VISIONS IN THE INDO-PACIFIC ................ 8 Barry Desker EAST ASIA SECURITY IN FLUX WHY THE “INDO-PACIFIC” CONCEPT IS NOT IN COMPETITION WITH CHINA’S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE (BRI)......................... 14 Elena Atanassova-Cornelis SHIFT OF US-CHINA RELATIONS AND ITS IMPACT ON THE REGIONAL ORDER ............................................................... 21 Yoichi Kato WHITHER THE US ALLIANCE SYSTEM? ............................................. 29 Emma Chanlett-Avery MARITIME SECURITY – COMPETITION AND COOPERATION THE NAVAL BALANCE OF POWER IN THE PACIFIC........................... 36 Patrick Cronin MARITIME SECURITY AND TERRITORIAL ISSUES: THE IMPACT OF TERRITORIAL CONFLICTS ON REGIONAL SECURITY ........................................................................................... 47 Masashi Nishihara EUROPEANS AND MARITIME SECURITY IN THE INDO-PACIFIC: DEMONSTRATING A MORE PROACTIVE COMMITMENT .................... 55 Céline Pajon East Asia Security in Flux Masashi Nishihara and Céline Pajon (eds.), THE FUTURE OF THE KOREAN PENINSULA KOREAS AT THE CENTER? SOUTH KOREA, NORTH KOREA, AND THEIR QUEST FOR AUTONOMY ................................................. 64 Ramon Pacheco Pardo HIGH TIME TO RECONSIDER APPROACH TO NORTH KOREA ........... 71 Hiroyuki Akita NORTHEAST ASIAN REGIONAL COOPERATION: AN ELUSIVE NECESSITY .................................................................... 78 Niklas Swanström 4 Forewords Masashi Nishihara On February 12, 2020 the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri) and the Research Institute for Peace and Security (RIPS) held a joint event in Paris on “East Asia Security in Flux: What Regional Order Ahead?”. The event had two parts: closed-door roundtables by experts and a public symposium. Celine Pajon, the French co-chair, and I were pleased that the event went so successfully. Many important subjects were covered, from different, perceptive viewpoints and with useful analyses. For the roundtables, we had invited nine experts, who presented their papers in three sessions. For the public symposium, former Singapore ambassador Barry Desker agreed to join as a keynote speaker. He offered insightful perspectives on the present and future of East Asia, and three experts followed up with additional comments. At our meetings, the US-China rivalry naturally occupied a dominant place. I have observed that Europe is less concerned than Asia and the US about the China threat, and more optimistic about the future of North Korea. Europe is also, I have perceived, more strongly interested in the Indo-Pacific concept than I had expected. To identify these differences among the three regions points to the value of inter-regional discussion such as ours. The peaceful settlement of territorial disputes in the East and South China Seas constitutes an essential dimension of regional peace and security. Meetings like ours should continue to seek how they may be resolved on a rule of law basis rather than by force. The covid-19, which developed into a pandemic since our conference was held in mid-February, is likely to bring about a new phase of tensions in the Sino-US rivalry and may even reorganize international power relations. Yet the strategic importance of the Indo-Pacific region will remain the same or may even be greater. It calls for continued inter-regional dialogues such as ours. A Snapshot of the Past? Céline Pajon In February, the Ifri Center for Asian Studies and RIPS held a conference on the Asian security environment. Two months later, it feels as if it was another era. Back then, Covid-19 had already raged and then dwindled in China, and cases of infection started to be reported throughout Asia and Europe. But nobody could have foreseen that the virus would soon develop into a pandemic with profound implications for all of us and for international relations. It is still premature to predict the exact consequences of this terrible epidemic for the global order and the strategic setting in Asia. At the time of writing, it already appears that the pandemic is not providing a moment of truce in Asian flashpoints. Pyongyang has resumed missile launches. Tensions in the South China Sea are flaring up. The information war is reaching new heights. While Beijing is upping its public- relations (PR) efforts to sell the Chinese way of managing virus, Taipei’s successful alternative model to tame it in a democratic way has earned the respect of the international community. This development could lead to further tensions in cross-straits relations. Finally, the US-China strategic rivalry is worsening as Washington stands up fiercely against Beijing’s narrative. At the same time, the US is badly hit by the virus and its global leadership has been fading to the point that it might mark the first year of a post-American world. The Covid-19 crisis is also deeply affecting European solidarity, identity and ability to act as one on the international scene. The texts gathered in this report provide Asian, European and American perspectives about the power balance, competition and alliance system in Asia, maritime security and cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, and the prospects for a resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue. These texts offer a snapshot of the past, but also provide glimpses of the future. Security tensions in Asia are here to stay. They may even be reinforced as the Covid- 19 crisis accelerates the decline of US leadership in the face of a more assertive China. The extent to which the current crisis will offer the opportunity for China to extend its influence in the region remains to be seen, however. The deep recession and humanitarian impact created by the pandemic will have a lasting impact on many countries, and is likely to further shuffle the cards. East Asia Security in Flux… Masashi Nishihara and Céline Pajon (eds.) In these turbulent times, it will be more important than ever to continue to exchange views among experts from different continents and backgrounds. Think tanks will have an increasingly important role in deciphering the complex reality to help fight disinformation and provide solid analysis and foresight to decision-makers. 7 Keynote Address Competing Strategic Visions in the Indo-Pacific Barry Desker The American-dominated regional order in East Asia since the end of the Second World War is facing a growing challenge. East Asian economic growth and the consolidation of post-independence states over the past seventy years occurred under the umbrella offered by the dominance of the US hegemon in the region. Today, the rise of China, the isolationist America First instincts of the Trump administration and rising domestic criticisms of the close affinity between the policies of regional governing elites and American strategic interests has led to a weakening of the ‘hub and spoke’ system that has characterized the American presence. A second important feature has been the emergence of alternative visions of strategic order as American domination in East