BetterNDPBA solutions. Guatemala Final Report: Authors Fewer disasters. Safer world. Guatemala 1 National Disaster Preparedness Baseline Assessment - Final Report 2 NDPBA Guatemala Final Report: Authors Authors Erin Hughey, PhD Scott Kuykendall, MS Director of Disaster Services Disaster Management Specialist Pacific Disaster Center Pacific Disaster Center [email protected] [email protected] Joseph Green, PhD Paulo Fernandes, Jr. Epidemiologist and Health Risk Disaster Services Analyst Specialist Pacific Disaster Center Pacific Disaster Center [email protected] [email protected] Dan Morath, MS, GISP Rachel Leuck, MS Senior Disaster Risk Analyst Disaster Services Analyst Pacific Disaster Center Pacific Disaster Center [email protected] [email protected] Doug Mayne, MaOL, CEM® Cassie Stelow, MS Disaster Management Advisor Senior Disaster Services Analyst Pacific Disaster Center Pacific Disaster Center [email protected] [email protected] © 2018 Pacific Disaster Center Table 1. Record of Changes Date Description Version 1/2/2018 Technical edit of NDBPA Guatemala report Mark Shwartz 2/6/2018 Final Review V9 3 4 NDPBA Guatemala Final Report: Acknowledgements Acknowledgements A special mahalo to Guatemala’s Coordinadora Nacional para la Reducción de Desastres (CONRED) for providing coordination and insight throughout the National Disaster Preparedness Baseline Assessment (NDPBA) project. Additional thanks to the Secretaría de Planificación y Programación (SEGEPLAN) for their support in project coordination and data gathering. CONRED and its partners have proven their dedication and effectiveness throughout the project. Their commitment to developing a foundation for a more prepared and resilient Guatemala continues to save lives and reduce disaster losses. The Pacific Disaster Center and the authors of this report would like to acknowledge the partnership and many insightful inputs and guidance provided by representatives of the various agencies and organizations that participated in the Guatemala NDPBA workshops, surveys, interviews, and data validation and analysis process including: • CARE • Centro de Coordinación para la Prevención de los Desastres Naturales en América Central • Consejo Nacional de Atencion al Migrante • Coordinadora Municipal para la Reducción de Desastres, Escuintla • Coordinadora Municipal para la Reducción de Desastres, Sacatepéquez • Coordinadora Nacional para la Reducción de Desastres • Guatemala Red Cross • Instituto Geográfico Nacional • Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas • Instituto Nacional de Sismologia, Vulcanologia, Meteorologia y Hidrologia • Instituto Privado de Investigacion sobre Cambio Climatico • International Federation of the Red Cross • Japan International Cooperation Agency • La Colectiva para la Defensa de los Derechos de las Mujeres en Guatemala • Ministerio de Agricultura Ganadería y Alimentación • Ministerio de Defensa Nacional • Ministerio de Desarrollo Social • Ministerio de Economía • Ministerio de Educación • Ministerio de Finanzas Públicas • Ministerio de Gobernación • Ministerio de Salud Pública y Asistencia Social 5 NDPBA Guatemala Final Report: Acknowledgements • Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs/Red de Información Humanitaria • Policia Nacional • Secretaría de Obras Sociales de la Esposa del Presidente • Secretaría de Planificación y Programación • Unidad Humanitaria y de Rescate • United States Agency for International Development • United States Embassy • Universidad del Valle de Guatemala 6 NDPBA Guatemala Final Report: Acronyms Acronyms CC Coping Capacity CDM Comprehensive Disaster Management CEPREDENAC Centro de Coordinación para la Prevención de los Desastres Naturales en América Central COMRED Coordinadora Municipal para la Reducción de Desastres CONRED Coordinadora Nacional para la Reducción de Desastres DM Disaster Management DRM Disaster Risk Management DRR Disaster Risk Reduction EHP Equipo Humanitario de Pais EOC/COE Emergency Operations Center/Centro de Operaciones de Emergencia ESEGIR Escuela Superior de Estudio en Gestión Integral del Riesgo GDP Gross Domestic Product ICC Instituto Privado de Investigación sobre Cambio Climatico IGN Instituto Geográfico Nacional INE Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas INGO International Non-governmental Organization INSIVUMEH Instituto Nacional de Sismología, Vulcanología, Meteorología e Hidrología JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency LR Lack of Resilience MAGA Ministerio de Agricultura, Ganadería y Alimentación MDN Ministerio Nacional de Defensa MHE Multi-Hazard Exposure MHR Multi-Hazard Risk MINFIN Ministerio de Finanzas Públicas MOE Ministerio de Educación MOH Ministerio de Salud Pública MOU Memorandum of Understanding 7 NDPBA Guatemala Final Report: Acronyms NDMO National Disaster Management Organization NDPBA National Disaster Preparedness Baseline Assessment NEOC/COEN National Emergency Operations Center/Centro de Operaciones de Emergencia Nacional NGO Non-governmental Organization NFDR Fondo Nacional para la Reducción de Desastres OCHA Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs PDC Pacific Disaster Center REDHUM Humanitarian Information Network RVA Risk and Vulnerability Assessment SAT Sistema de Alerta Temprana SEGEPLAN Secretaría de Planificación y Programación SOP Standard Operating Procedure SOSEP Secretaría de Obras Sociales de la Esposa del Presidente V Vulnerability 8 NDPBA Guatemala Final Report: Executive Summary Executive Summary This report details the final results of the National Disaster Preparedness Baseline Assessment (NDPBA) Project conducted in coordination with, and in support of, stakeholders in Guatemala. The goal of this project was to assess disaster risk at the subnational level and place it in the context of disaster risk reduction (DRR) efforts currently underway in Guatemala. The NDPBA provides a baseline for evidence-based DRR decision making, while simultaneously supporting the enhancement of data holdings to establish future trends in the drivers of disaster risk. The NDPBA project provides a repeatable and measurable approach to examining key elements of DRR. The NDPBA approach consists of distinct yet complimentary activities (see Figure 1), including: • Focused stakeholder engagements; • A detailed subnational Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (RVA) that included the following elements: multi- hazard exposure, vulnerability, coping capacity, resilience, and multi-hazard risk; • A review of national and subnational Comprehensive Disaster Management (CDM) capabilities to identify challenges and provide recommendations for strengthening preparedness and response; • A proposed five-year plan including recommendations to build capacity and capability; and • Data integration and information sharing. Figure 1. NDPBA Activities The data and final analysis provided in this report are integrated into the Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC) decision-support system known as DisasterAWARE™, allowing for open and free access to critical DRR data and information. Access to the system may be requested through [email protected]. 9 NDPBA Guatemala Final Report: Executive Summary Findings Risk and Vulnerability Asssement The population in Guatemala experiences very high levels of exposure to seismic activity and tropical cyclone winds. Over 98% of the population are exposed to seismic activity, and over 75% of the population are exposed to tropical cyclone activity. Smaller proportions of the population are also exposed to volcanic activity, flooding, and landslides. See Figure 2 for total population exposed to specific hazards. 76% 98% 11,175,649 14,322,683 People People 45% 11.5% 6,652,785 People 1,681,477 People 8.5% 1,251,053 People Figure 2. Population exposure to hazards in Guatemala Table 2 provides a summary of the component results for Multi-Hazard Risk (MHR), Multi-Hazard Exposure (MHE), Vulnerability (V), Coping Capacity (CC), including index scores, and relative ranking among the 22 departments. A rank of 1 corresponds to a high score (e.g., high multi-hazard risk), while a rank of 22 indicates a low score (e.g., low multi-hazard risk). 10 NDPBA Guatemala Final Report: Executive Summary Table 2. Guatemala Multi-Hazard Risk (MHR) Index scores, rankings, and component indices, by department Multi- Multi- Coping Hazard Vulnerability Department Department Hazard Risk Capacity Exposure Risk Level Score Rank Score Rank Score Rank Score Rank Quiché 0.632 1 0.621 9 0.587 4 0.311 20 Very High Totonicapán 0.629 2 0.684 5 0.64 2 0.438 11 Very High Chimaltenango 0.586 3 0.722 2 0.441 13 0.405 14 Very High Alta Verapaz 0.583 4 0.353 18 0.707 1 0.311 21 Very High San Marcos 0.576 5 0.598 10 0.519 8 0.389 18 High Escuintla 0.563 6 0.674 7 0.412 17 0.397 16 High Sololá 0.56 7 0.709 3 0.488 10 0.515 6 High Guatemala 0.557 8 0.913 1 0.3 22 0.541 5 High Retalhuleu 0.546 9 0.643 8 0.411 18 0.418 12 High Huehuetenango 0.541 10 0.471 12 0.466 11 0.316 19 Moderate Suchitepéquez 0.539 11 0.58 11 0.434 15 0.397 15 Moderate Jalapa 0.523 12 0.392 17 0.572 6 0.396 17 Moderate Jutiapa 0.513 13 0.462 13 0.529 7 0.453 9 Moderate Quetzaltenango 0.505 14 0.694 4 0.44 14 0.619 1 Low Izabal 0.47 15 0.407 16 0.441 12 0.439 10 Low Santa Rosa 0.469 16 0.425 14 0.397 19 0.414 13 Low Baja Verapaz 0.469 17 0.413 15 0.5 9 0.507 7 Low Sacatepéquez 0.467 18 0.682 6 0.332 21 0.613 2 Low Chiquimula 0.447 19 0.22 20 0.579 5 0.457 8 Very Low Petén 0.442 20 0.02 22 0.612 3 0.306 22 Very Low El Progreso 0.36 21 0.257 19 0.421 16 0.598 4 Very Low Zacapa 0.293 22 0.089 21 0.396 20 0.607 3 Very Low Comprehensive Disaster Management