Centre for Military and Strategic Studies Canada, Europe and the Defence of the Arctic: Partners or Competitors? The European Union, Canada, and the Arctic: Challenges of International Governance Rob Huebert [email protected] Ottawa September 21 2011 Main Issues • Canada and Europe as long time Partners and allies • Canada-European Arctic relations were generally minor in past but now growing in importance • New (Renewed?) Security interest in region • Tendency to refuse to discount change – until it occurs! Emerging European-Canadian Security Issues • Relationship with Russia – Role of energy – To contain or engage • Role of NATO • Issue Areas – Hans Island – NWP Canada-Europe Transformation of the Arctic • The Arctic is a state of massive transformation – Climate Change – Resource Development – (was up to a high $140+ barrel of oil- now $86/ barrel) – Geopolitical Transformation/Globalization • How do we understand what is happening? • What is the role for the development of the new Arctic security regime and its impact on Canada-EU relations? Arrival of New Actors and New Interests in the Arctic • Issue is not “voice” but is interest • European Union – Membership on Arctic Council • China – Polar Bases: 2 ½ Antarctica; 1 Arctic – Arctic Vessels – Xue Long; 10,000 ton new research icebreaker – Interests: Climate Change; Navigation; Resources – Membership on Arctic Council New Geopolitics of the North • Russia – Renewed Assertiveness – Petrodollars • United States – Multi-lateral reluctance/emerging concern to act – International Role as remaining Superpower • Norway – Refocus on North – Growing Interest (Concern?) with Russia • Denmark – Issues with Greenland – social; energy – New Naval capabilities • Iceland – Economic melt-down – Volcanic melt-down • Finland/Sweden – NATO – Loyal Arrow • Canada – Re-examining its Arctic capabilities – Renewed Assertiveness Issue 1: European and Canadian Relationship with Russia • Evolving Russian Arctic Strategic policy/capability • Evolving Governance in Russia • European-Russian relationship – Oil and gas supplies • Canada-Russia – Extended Continental Shelf – NWP and NSR Russia • Resumption of Northern Fleet Operation • Commitment to have 5-6 Carrier Battle-groups by 2025/30 - Admiral Vladimir Vysotsky • Resumption of Russian TU-95 (Bear) Arctic Flights, Aug18/07; decision to build new bomber • Purchase of 4 Mistral Renewed Russian Maritime Nuclear Deterrent • 1990’s Period of Reduction – AMEC/G-8 assistance in Sub Decommissioning • 2000’s Renewal • 6 SSBN 995 Borey – 1 built; 3 building • 6 SSN 885 Yasen/Graney – 1 built; 2 building • Admiral Vladimir Vysotsky Yury Dolgoruky Commitment to 20 more SSBN in 15 years Swedish/Baltic (Northern NATO) Response to French Sales to Russia • Nordic-Baltic Summit Jan 2011 – UK, Norway, Sweden, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania plus Finland, Sweden • Swedish FM – Submarines Procurement Mistral Summary • Differences between Canada and Europe in responding to Russia • Canada tends to be more assertive (aggressive?) • But divisions regarding response to Russia exists within Europe – Differences also public and non-public Issue 2: NATO • What are NATO states doing in Arctic? • What is role of NATO in Arctic? – Expanded more formal role – SAR; confidence building – No role • Gaining/Losing Northern NATO members – +Finland…..Sweden – -Iceland Norway • The High North is the most important priority area of the Norwegian Defence- Norwegian Minister of Defence Anne-Grete Strøm-Erichsen – April 2008 • 5 New Ice-Capable Frigates – Very capable • Helicopters stationed at northern base of Bardufoss • Purchase 48 F-35s November 2008 Norway - Exercise Cold Response • Large scale exercise with Norway and NATO forces – 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010 • 8,000-10,000 • Held in Northern Norway in mid-March Denmark • Substantial Re-building Northern and General purpose surface fleet post 1989 • 4 Thesis – ice-capable; 2 Knud Ramussen – ice capable • Decision expected in 2-3 years F-35 purchase • Deployments of F-16s to Greenland • Long-term Security Ramifications of Greenland Independence Finland/Sweden • Loyal Arrow – June 2009 • 200 aircraft; 2000 troops; 50 vessels • Finland developing closer links with NATO – Response to Russia/Georgia engagement • Sweden “concern” by French sale to Russia • Sweden is currently investigating submarine sighting off Gothenburg HMS Ark Royal in Swedish Waters Iceland • Closure of the US Air Station Keflavik in September 2006 • Economic and Volcanic Impacts of Iceland GDP • Impact of Arctic Five meetings • "China and India lent Iceland a helping hand in many constructive ways whereas Europe was hostile and the US was absent," Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson – President Sept 2011 France • Special Ambassador for the Arctic • Annual French Arctic submarine missions • 27th mountain infantry brigade – Arctic Operations • Air Force operations in Sweden, Finland, Norway, Alaska • All surface naval units must carry out Arctic deployment – Ministry of Defence June 22, 2010 Canada • New Military Operations since 2002 • 6-8 Arctic Offshore Patrol Vessels • Nanisivik Refueling Facility • Resolute Bay Training Facility • Feb 2008 Budget – $720 Million Icebreaker • June 2008 Canada First Defence Strategy (Harper White Paper) • Northern Strategy summer 2009 :Four pillars • Increased Rangers Patrols • Mandatory Reporting of Ship Traffic – Nordreg Canada - Northern Exercises • Resumed in 2002 – Operation Narwhal • Hudson Sentinel -2005 Hudson Bay • Operation Nanook Eastern Arctic – 750 troops and OGD • Operation Nunakput Western Arctic • Operation Nunalivut – Ranger Patrol • Operation Nanook 2010 – US, Denmark navies/coast guards– but not a NATO exercise Summary • NATO is discussing the Arctic – Does it have a formal role? • NATO members have resumed military exercises in Arctic • NATO- Russia – Does it embrace/engage Russia? – Does it prepare to respond to Russia? Issue 3.1 Hans Island • Long-term low-level treatment of dispute • 2002 and 2003 landing off Danish Troops Danish Military Troops on Hans Island HDMS Vaedderen Hans Island Summary • Canada and Denmark were able to resolve • But question remains as to why the second trip to island by Danish military units • Demonstrates escalation potential of even meaningless issues Issue 3.2 The Canadian Northwest Passages • Canadian/Russian position – Internal Waters • US/EU position – International Strait • Issue is over Control of Trans-Polar Shipping • Issue is also over aircraft transit • Canada-US Security Relationship Canadian NWP Polarstern 2010 Sovereignty and Lands Claim Summary • “Mandatory” Enforcement of NORDREG plus expected Russian new legislation on NSR • Growing assertiveness of EU on NWP/NSR • Coastal state control vs freedom of navigation The Emerging Arctic Security Regime • Circumpolar states have called for cooperation – What will be the new international governance regime? • Circumpolar states are building up their combat capable force for the Arctic – New Equipment – Ice and Combat Capable – New Policies – Unilateral “concern” – New Training Conclusion • Geopolitics Concerns reduced immediately after end of Cold War • New concerns are arising as Arctic is perceived/becoming more accessible • Issues will be Maritime/Aerospace • Issues will be understanding entry of new actors to the region • NATO’s role is not clear • Europe and Canada are determining what their interests are in Arctic – not Automatic that it will be aligned.