Extreme Weather Events in Europe: preparing for climate change adaptation October 2013 ISBN (print) 978-82-7144-100-5 ISBN (electronic) 978-82-7144-101-2 In cooperation with This report can be found at www.dnva.no Produced by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute Extreme Weather Events in Europe: preparing for climate change adaptation Øystein Hov, Ulrich Cubasch, Erich Fischer, Peter Höppe, Trond Iversen, Nils Gunnar Kvamstø, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Daniela Rezacova, David Rios, Filipe Duarte Santos, Bruno Schädler, Ottó Veisz, Christos Zerefos, Rasmus Benestad, John Murlis, M. Donat, Gregor C. Leckebusch, Uwe Ulbrich. Extreme Weather Events in Europe: preparing for climate change adaptation In cooperation with CONTRIBUTORS Professor Øystein Hov, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Norway† Professor Ulrich Cubasch, Free University of Berlin, Germany* Dr Erich Fischer, Institute for Atmospheric and Climatic Science, ETH Zurich, Switzerland* Professor Peter Höppe, Geo Risks Research/Corporate Climate Centre, Munich Re, Germany* Professor Trond Iversen, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Norway* Professor Nils Gunnar Kvamstø, Department of Geophysics, University of Bergen, Norway* Professor Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland* Professor Daniela Rezacova, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Prague, Czech Republic* Professor David Rios, Royal Academy of Sciences, Spain* Professor Filipe Duarte Santos, Lisbon University, Portugal* Dr Bruno Schädler, University of Berne, Switzerland* Professor Ottó Veisz, Agricultural Research Institute of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest, Hungary* Professor Christos Zerefos, University of Athens, Greece* Dr Rasmus Benestad (Working Group Researcher), Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway Professor John Murlis, EASAC Environment Programme Secretary Dr M. Donat, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin, Germany; now at Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia Dr Gregor C. Leckebusch, School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, UK Professor Uwe Ulbrich, Freie Universität Berlin, Germany † Chairman of EASAC Working Group * Member of EASAC Working Group ISBN 978-82-7144-100-5 © The Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters / Øystein Hov Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of the publisher, or in accordance with the terms of licenses issued by the appropriate reproduction rights organisation. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside the terms stated here should be sent to: Norwegian Meteorological Institute PO Box 43 Blindern 0313 Oslo Norway tel +47 22963000 email [email protected] www.met.no A Banson production, Cambridge, CB1 2BH, UK Printed by Arkan Kopi & Digitaltrykk Cover images, clockwise from top left: Ronfromyork / Dreamstime.com, Anoucketbenoit / Dreamstime.com, Ralucah2002 / Dreamstime.com, Serrnovik / Dreamstime.com. 4 | October 2013 | Extreme Weather Events in Europe ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Different people have contributed to different parts of this assessment: Dr. Ottó Veisz wrote the section on adaptation to extreme events in agriculture; Dr Bruno Schädler on sector and adaptation strategies and Professor Filipe Duarte Santos provided the account of weather and climate extreme events in Portugal. Summary of present knowledge and ongoing research: Professor Christos Zerefos wrote on the principal extreme weather phenomena in Mediterranean/Southern Europe; Professor Trond Iversen, Professor Nils Gunnar Kvamstø and Dr Rasmus Benestad were responsible for the section on changes in extreme precipitation in Northern Europe; Dr Erich Fischer wrote on droughts and temperatures; Professor Daniela Rezacova was responsible for the discussion of convective events and heavy rain storms/wind storms; Professor Ulrich Cubasch, Professor Uwe Ulbrich, Dr Gregor C. Leckebusch, Dr Markus Donat wrote on large-scale wind storms; Professor Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz contributed with discussion on intense precipitation and floods; Professor Peter Höppe discussed natural catastrophes in Europe – trends of loss-relevant extreme weather events – and Professor David Rios provided material on statistics and risk analysis in the characterisation of extreme weather. The contributions were then assembled into one assessment by Dr Rasmus Benestad, Professor Øystein Hov and Professor John Murlis. The assessment was sponsored by: The Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters, founded in 1857, a non-governmental, nationwide body which embraces all fields of learning. Its main purpose is to support the advancement of science and scholarship in Norway. The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, founded in 1866, a governmental agency tasked with carrying out meteorological observations, weather forecasting, marine forecasting and climate analysis. The Institute carries out R&D work to support operational services. The European Academies Science Advisory Council (EASAC) EASAC EASAC was formed by the national science academies of the European Union (EU) Member States to enable them to collaborate with each other and speak with one voice with the aim of building science into policy at the EU level. Its mission reflects the view of academies that science is central to many aspects of modern life and that an appreciation of the scientific dimension is a pre-requisite to wise policy-making. This view already underpins the work of many academies at national level. With the growing importance of the European Union as an arena for policy, academies recognise that the scope of their advisory functions needs to extend beyond the national to cover also the European level. Here it is often the case that a trans-European grouping can be more effective than a body from a single country. The academies of Europe have therefore formed EASAC so that they can speak with a common voice with the goal of building science into policy at EU level. Through EASAC, the academies work together to provide independent, expert, evidence-based advice about the scientific aspects of public policy to those who make or influence policy within the European institutions. Drawing on the memberships and networks of the academies, EASAC accesses the best of European science in carrying out its work. Its views are vigorously independent of commercial or political bias, and it is open and transparent in its processes. EASAC aims to deliver advice that is comprehensible, relevant and timely. Preparing for Climate Change Adaptation | October 2013 | 5 EASAC covers all scientific and technical disciplines, and its experts are drawn from all the countries of the European Union. It is funded by the member academies and by contracts with interested bodies. The expert members of EASAC’s working groups give their time free of charge. EASAC has no commercial or business sponsors. EASAC’s activities include substantive studies of the scientific aspects of policy issues, reviews and advice about specific policy documents, workshops aimed at identifying current scientific thinking about major policy issues or at briefing policy- makers, and short, timely statements on topical subjects. The EASAC Council has 28 individual members – highly experienced scientists nominated one each by the national science academies of EU Member States, by the Academia Europaea and by ALLEA. The national science academies of Norway and Switzerland are also represented. The Council is supported by a professional Secretariat based at the Leopoldina, the German National Academy of Sciences, in Halle (Saale) and by a Brussels Office at the Royal Academies for Science and the Arts of Belgium. The Council agrees the initiation of projects, appoints members of working groups, reviews drafts and approves reports for publication. To find out more about EASAC, visit the website – www.easac.eu – or contact the EASAC Secretariat at [email protected]. EASAC, the European The Hungarian Academy of For further information: Academies Science Advisory Sciences EASAC Secretariat Council, consists of The Royal Irish Academy Deutsche Akademie der representatives of the following The Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei Naturforscher Leopoldina European national academies The Latvian Academy of Sciences German National Academy of and academic bodies: The Lithuanian Academy of Sciences Academia Europaea Sciences Postfach 110543 All European Academies (ALLEA) The Royal Netherlands Academy of D-06019 Halle (Saale) The Austrian Academy of Sciences Arts and Sciences Germany The Royal Academies for Science The Polish Academy of Sciences tel +49 (0)345 4723 9833 and the Arts The Academy of Sciences of Lisbon fax +49 (0)345 4723 9839 of Belgium The Romanian Academy email [email protected] The Bulgarian Academy of Sciences The Slovakian Academy of Sciences EASAC Brussels Office The Academy of Sciences of the The Slovenian Academy of Arts Royal Academies for Science and Czech Republic and Science the The Royal Danish Academy of The Spanish Royal Academy of Arts of Belgium (RASAB) Sciences and Letters Sciences Hertogsstraat 1 Rue Ducale The Estonian Academy of The Royal Swedish Academy of B 1000 - Brussels Sciences Sciences Belgium The Council of Finnish Academies The Royal Society The Académie des Sciences The Norwegian Academy of The German Academy of Sciences Science