European Union Institute for Security Studies Citizens in an Interconnected and Polycentric World and Polycentric in an Interconnected Citizens Citizens in an Interconnected and Polycentric World produced for ESPAS by the European Union Institute for Security Studies 100, avenue Suffren F-75015 Paris phone: + 33 (0)1 56 89 19 30 fax: + 33 (0)1 56 89 19 31 e-mail: [email protected] GLOBAL TRENDS www.iss.europa.eu ISBN 978-92-9198-199-1 QN-31-12-525-EN-C doi:10.2815/27508 2030 ‘The EUISS has produced a groundbreaking report which for the first time looks at the impact of an increasingly empowered global citizenry on the international system. The report paints a world which is no longer a relatively static one of states, but delves deep into the drivers and forces – such as the communications revolution – that are moulding and constraining state behaviour, not the other way around.’ Mathew Burrows, National Intelligence Council ‘The objective of this report, coordinated by Álvaro de Vasconcelos, is to establish what will be the major world trends prevailing in the ongoing phase of transition that has characterised the first decade of the twenty-first century. The report correctly draws a picture of global multipolarity. Of particular interest is the scope of its content and research, which was conducted not only in the developed world but also in the major poles of the emerging world. The analysis of the report is based on thorough and far-reaching research which is very useful Printed in Condé-sur-Noireau (France) to understand the complexities of the present global context.’ by Corlet Imprimeur – March 2012 – Marco Aurelio Garcia, Special Foreign Policy Advisor to the President of Brazil ‘The EUISS ESPAS report is comprehensive and thought-provoking. I look forward to the debate it will generate in my country as well as in the others discussed.’ Radha Kumar, Director, Peace & Conflict Programme, Delhi Policy Group ISBN 978-92-9198-199-1 QN-31-12-525-EN-C doi:10.2815/27508 European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) Global trends 2030 – Citizens in an interconnected and polycentric world This report, edited by Álvaro de Vasconcelos, contains the findings of the European Strat- egy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) research project. The EUISS was commissioned to produce the ESPAS Report on Global Trends 2030 by an EU inter-institutional task force. An interim version of this report was presented to the European Union in October 2011. The ESPAS research project is coordinated by Álvaro de Vasconcelos (ESPAS and EUISS director), Giovanni Grevi, Luis Peral and Jean Pascal Zanders. Contributors include Sami Andoura, Esra Bulut-Aymat, Nicola Casarini, Iana Dreyer, Sabine Fischer, Damien Helly, George Joffé, Bernice Lee, Patryk Pawlak, Žiga Turk, Alcides Costa Vaz and Catherine Wihtol de Wenden, as well as a pool of research assistants: Anna Dall’Oca, Any Freitas (assistant to the Director), Sebastian Paulo, Amaia Sanchez and Gerald Stang, supported by the ESPAS management unit, Luz Entrena Vazquez, Project Manager, and her assist- ant, Marija Atanaskova. Alexandra Barahona de Brito was responsible for the language editing of the report. The research also incorporates the work of a number of external contributors namely: Samina Ahmed, William Dutton, Irene López Méndez, Jayshree Sengupta, Esraa Rashid, Ijaz Shafi Gilani, Ingrid Therwath, Magdalena Sepulveda Car- mona, Leszek Jeremi Bialy, Benjamin Preisler and Sania Nishtar. The findings of this ESPAS Report are the responsibility of the EUISS, and do not necessarily express the opinions of the EU institutions. The EUISS was commissioned to produce the ESPAS Report on Global trends 2030 by an inter-institutional task force, with full respect for the intellectual independence of the EUISS. Institute for Security Studies European Union 100, avenue de Suffren 75015 Paris tel.: +33 (0)1 56 89 19 30 fax: +33 (0)1 56 89 19 31 e-mail: [email protected] ISBN 978-92-9198-199-1 www.iss.europa.eu QN-31-12-525-EN-C Director : Álvaro de Vasconcelos doi:10.2815/27508 Contents Foreword from the ESPAS Inter-Institutional Task Force 5 ESPAS methodology 7 Framework 7 Regional conferences 8 Side events 9 Focus groups 9 List of figures and tables 10 Executive Summary 11 Part I - The empowerment of individuals: a global human community but a growing expectations gap 25 1. The empowerment of individuals: key drivers 27 The global rise of the middle class 28 Education: The cornerstone of knowledge societies 31 The information age: empowerment but threats to privacy 32 A universal information revolution: the new world of the internet 33 2. Converging values and demands, but risks of extremism 39 The universal spread of human rights and democracy 39 Women’s rights 42 Sharing the earth 42 A ‘post-Huntingtonian’ world 45 The expectations gap and the risk of extremism and nationalism 46 3. Demands for political participation but dangers of populism 49 Gender and politics 52 Multiple, non-conflicting identities 53 ‘Development with dignity’ 54 Participatory democracy 55 Part II – Greater human development but inequality, climate change and scarcity 59 4. A rising middle class but persistent poverty and inequality 61 Rising wealth in developing economies 62 A shift of economic gravity to Asia and the developing world 63 Demographics: ageing and slow growth in the West and East Asia 64 Demography and migration 65 Ongoing financial instability 67 Output and greening pressures 68 Less abject poverty, but persistent poverty and inequality 69 Women and development 74 Inequality and the hyper-rich 75 Social challenges in advanced economies 77 5. Climate change and scarcities: the challenges to human development 79 Climate change and scarcity 80 Water scarcity 81 Natural resource scarcity: energy 87 Other resource scarcities 89 Delivering the Green Industrial Revolution 89 6. Human security: protecting citizens 95 Major conflict trends 96 Scarcity and strategic interests 98 Military technology and future conflicts 98 Regional conflict trends 100 Part III – A polycentric world but a growing governance gap 105 7. A power shift to Asia but greater uncertainty 107 A world of diffuse power 108 Soft power 111 The great powers 112 Uncertainty for some great powers 118 Rising middle powers 119 Uncertainty for some middle powers 122 Regionalism as a vector of power 125 8. Diffusion of power but dangers of fragmentation 129 A world of networks 129 A world of private actors 131 A world of cities 134 9. Global initiatives but a governance gap 139 Global politics 139 Charting the future: the governance factor 141 Governance and responsibility: normative competition and contamination 143 Reforming global governance: synthesis, resilience and fairness 145 Towards governance hubs? 149 Part IV – Greater uncertainties but broader opportunities 153 Conclusion 155 Convergence and fragmentation 155 Human development and scarcity 156 Multilateralism and fragmentation 156 Monitoring the transition 157 Annexes 159 List of References 159 Abbreviations 173 Foreword from the ESPAS Inter-Institutional Task Force The 2010 European Union Budget provided for the European Commission to undertake a Pilot Project over two years, with the aim of exploring the possibility of establishing ‘an inter-institutional system identifying long-term trends on major policy issues facing the EU’. This Pilot Project was proposed by the Parliament and adopted jointly with the Council, as the twin arm of the budgetary authority. In practice, the central objective of the initiative is to develop a network for regular co- operation between officials in the various EU institutions whose daily work involves re- searching forward-looking policy trends. As a first step in this process, the Paris-based EUISS was commissioned to do initial research, given its previous experience working in the field of long-term trends. Its contribution was to provide an initial assessment of the long-term international and domestic political and economic environment facing the EU over the next 20 years. The EUISS report ‘Global Trends 2030: Citizens in an Interconnected and Polyc- entric World’, edited by Álvaro de Vasconcelos, contains the findings of the project. Its uniqueness lies in the fact that not only is this the first time that the EU institutions have called upon an outside body to give an independent view of long-term global trends, but also that the work was undertaken by a team of European researchers looking outward in search of a global perspective on the challenges ahead. In order to ensure this perspective, the debates held in the various regions were organised with local think tanks, involving local experts on global trends from the academic, civil society and policy spheres. You will find the EUISS report and its relevant supporting documents on the ESPAS website (see, in particular, the Executive Summary). The EUISS report raises a wide range of issues. Its aim was not to predict exactly how the world will look in 2030, but rather to map major, existing trends that are likely to shape the future and will need to be taken into account by the Union as it defines coherent strategic options for the next governance cycle. 5 Global trends 2030 – Citizens in an interconnected and polycentric world The report identifies several global trends that will shape the world in 2030. They in- clude: • The empowerment of the individual, which may contribute to a growing sense of belonging to a single human community; • Greater stress on sustainable development against a backdrop of greater re- source scarcity and persistent poverty, compounded by the consequences of climate change; • The emergence of a more polycentric world characterised by a shift of power away from states, and growing governance gaps as the mechanisms for inter-state rela- tions fail to respond adequately to global public demands.