THE WATERS OF THE THIRD POLE: SOURCES OF THREAT, SOURCES OF SURVIVAL: Aon Benfi eld UCL Hazard Research Centre, University College London China Dialogue | Humanitarian Futures Programme, King’s College London Acknowledgements Contributors to this report were: Stephen Edwards, Catherine Lowe and Lucy Stanbrough of the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre, University College London; Isabel Hilton and Beth Walker of China Dialogue; Randolph Kent and Rosie Oglesby of the Humanitarian Futures Programme, King’s College London; and Katherine Morton of the Australian National University. The authors would like to acknowledge all those who shared their expertise in interviews for this study. Thanks are also due to the following reviewers whose comments were invaluable in developing this report: Roger Calow of the Overseas Development Institute, John Chilton, Ed Grumbine of the Environmental Studies Program at Prescott College, Lance Heath of the Climate Institute at the Australian National University, Kun-Chin Lin of the King’s China Institute, Pradeep Mool, and Daanish Mustafa of the Geography Department at King’s College London. In addition, two anonymous reviewers provided comments. This report was supported by the US Agency for International Development (USAID) Office of US Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA). Edited by Nina Behrman. Design: the Argument by Design – www.tabd.co.uk Contents Summary 2 Introduction: planning from the future 5 1 The importance of the Hindu-Kush Himalaya (HKH) region as a water source 7 Geology, water and land use 7 Climate influences and impacts 10 Glaciers and meltwater 10 Ecosystem degradation 11 The effects of climate change 12 2 The people of the HKH region 14 Growing urban populations 14 Environmental migration and displacement 15 Agricultural productivity and water use 17 Water shortages and food security 18 Extraction and loss of groundwater 18 Water wastage 19 Water quality and pollution 20 Hydropower and dam-building 20 Transboundary water management 23 3 Emerging vulnerabilities and crisis drivers of the future 24 Overview 24 Environmental hazards and their impacts 24 Floods and lake outbursts 24 Earthquakes 25 Mass land movements 25 Hazards in deltas and coastal zones 26 Arsenic contamination 26 Fires and atmospheric brown clouds 26 From crisis drivers to crises 27 Food insecurity 27 Mass displacement 27 Habitat and infrastructure collapse 28 Demise of livelihoods 28 Changing disease patterns 28 Rising conflict 29 A matrix of interactions 30 4 Humanitarian perspectives 31 An uncertain future 31 Preparing for humanitarian futures: dimensions and dynamics of future humanitarian crises 31 The present state of play 33 Humanitarian consequences 35 Conclusions and recommendations 36 Conclusions 36 Recommendations 38 References 40 Endnotes 42 Appendix 1: Future stories 45 1 Summary [1] The purpose of this report is to open up a dialogue resources, may increase the probability of more on an issue that could put the lives and livelihoods severe drought during dry seasons. of millions of people at risk in the foreseeable future. This issue is water – water as a vital resource and as Human activity in the HKH region a potential crisis driver in the Hindu-Kush Himalaya [5] Large, fast-growing and rapidly urbanising (HKH) region. In seeking to foster that dialogue, populations, described in Section 2, are placing the report has three specific objectives: [i] to survey heavy demands on water and related environmental various types of potential water-related hazards and resources. Governments in the region are working crisis drivers that could affect the region; [ii] to foster to increase agricultural productivity and electricity new types of alliances – including greater attention generation, but with likely devastating effects on the to what will be called humanitarian policy-maker/ environment. Longstanding antagonisms between science dialogues – for addressing the threats that countries and sub-regions are being exacerbated by the region may face; and [iii] to propose first steps disputes over increasing demand for diminishing that must be taken now to lead to prevention and or increasingly variable water resources. There preparedness measures commensurate with the are growing numbers of environmental migrants. nature and scale of threats facing the region. These include both those people moving away from drying or degraded farmland or fisheries, and the The importance of the HKH region millions displaced by ever-larger dams and river- as a water source diversion projects. [2] The HKH region, referred to by some as the Third Pole because it contains the largest area of frozen Vulnerabilities and crisis drivers water outside the polar regions, is the source of [6] The main natural hazards in the HKH region are ten major river systems that together provide earthquakes, mass movements, extreme weather, irrigation, power and drinking water for 1.3 billion windstorms, droughts, floods and wildfires. people – over 20% of the world’s population. As Groundwater contamination is also a major concern. Section 1 notes, this regional water system is already As outlined in Section 3, the impacts of all of these under considerable stress and could be involved may be magnified by environmental and climatic in future crises encompassing disputes over dams changes, population growth, globalisation and and river diversions, floods, water shortages and increasing demands on resources; and all in various contamination. ways dramatically affect water availability and are affected by water as a crisis driver. Consequently, [3] From Afghanistan in the west, through Pakistan, such hazards, particularly those relating to water India, Nepal, Bangladesh and Bhutan to Myanmar quantity and quality, are likely to continue to and China in the east, the HKH region extends hamper socio-economic development and poverty 3,500km over eight countries and is the source of reduction in the region, and could contribute to ten major Asian river systems, including the Ganges, a range of humanitarian crises, from conflict and the Brahmaputra and the Yangtze, Mekong and mass migration to famines and cataclysmic floods. Yellow rivers. However, the region is susceptible to high levels of climate warming, earthquake activity, Humanitarian perspectives extreme weather events, glacial melting and relative [7] There is much that remains uncertain and unknown sea-level rise. The region’s glaciers, rivers, wetlands, about potential humanitarian threats across the HKH grasslands and coasts are all therefore affected. region. Yet, at the same time, as reflected in Section 3, there is ample expert opinion to suggest that the [4] Despite the uncertainty surrounding projected region offers a plethora of humanitarian threats that changes, it seems highly likely that many of the could severely affect the lives and livelihoods of changes already observed will continue in future millions of people. While this report is not intended decades. Warming in many parts of the region is to comment on the science that underpins those likely to continue and it is probable many glaciers expert views, Section 4 of this report does suggest will continue receding. Rainfall and extreme events that in light of new and traditional types of crisis such as storms and floods are likely to increase drivers affecting and affected by water, those with throughout much of the HKH region. The apparent humanitarian roles and responsibilities need to increasing variability in the summer monsoon develop new approaches to crisis prevention and rains, coupled with the unsustainable use of water preparedness. 2 The waters of the Third Pole [8] To date, there is a general belief that too little P Development catastrophes. This report attention is being paid to the region as an inter- emphasises the nexus between natural hazards related system, that short term-ism dominates and human intervention. It has been suggested the thinking of too many governments in the that the development initiatives being undertaken region and that too many gaps in knowledge and throughout much of the region could lead to crises information-sharing are constraining the planning that will readily deserve the epithet ‘catastrophes’ and action essential to meet the types of crises that the region may well have to face in the future. P Lack of effective water management. There is inadequate long-term water management at almost every level in the HKH region. At national and Conclusions international levels, water management is marked This report attempts to point out risks that need to be by short term-ism and solutions that lack sectorally considered when dealing with what has been defined integrated approaches as the region affected by the waters of the HKH region. While recognising the abundance of initiatives that have P Lack of systems perspectives. One factor which already been undertaken in the region by governments, continues to inhibit a proper understanding of research organisations and community-based the region is the failure to adopt a systems perspective organisations to deal with many aspects of potential of regional issues. Only in this way will the scale future threats, this report nevertheless concludes that necessary to deal with the longer-term threats and there are issues which must be recognised and addressed means to offset them be identified as soon as possible: P Knowledge gaps and lack of understanding. There P The HKH region is already in a state of crisis, is no adequate shared understanding