The Serbian Paradox: The Cost of Integration into the European Union Preston Huennekens Thesis submitted to the faculty of the Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts In Political Science Yannis A. Stivachtis, Chair Besnik Pula Glenn R. Bugh April 17, 2018 Blacksburg, VA Keywords: Serbia, European Union, historical memory, nationalism, Balkan politics The Serbian Paradox: The Cost of Integration into the European Union Preston Huennekens Abstract This project addresses the Republic of Serbia’s current accession negotiations with the European Union, and asks how the country’s long and often turbulent history affects that dialogue. Using Filip Ejdus’ concept of historical memory and Benedict Anderson’s “imagined community” theory of nationalism, this paper discusses how Serbia has reached a critical moment in its history by pursuing European integration. This contradicts their historical pull towards their longtime ally Russia. What role does historical memory play in these negotiations, and is integration truly possible? Additionally, how is Serbia’s powerful president, Aleksandar Vucic, using the Europeanization process to strengthen his hand domestically? Abstract (General Audience) This thesis addresses the Republic of Serbia’s current accession negotiations with the European Union, and asks how the country’s long and often turbulent history affects that dialogue. I argue that Serbia is at a crossroads in its history: on one hand, it wishes to join the European Union, but on the other is continually pulled to the east with their historical ally, Russia. I argue that President Aleksandar Vucic is using the EU negotiations to enhance his own power and that if the EU admits Serbia into the body they will be trading regional stability for Serbian democracy. Acknowledgements First and foremost, I want to thank my Committee members for their insight, suggestions, and patience throughout the duration of this project. I particularly want to thank Dr. Stivachtis for his encouragement and thought-provoking inquiries which drove the ultimate direction of this thesis. Finally, I want to thank my parents for their endless support and for making this opportunity possible. iv Table of Contents Cover Page Abstract (iii) Introduction (1) Chapter 1: Historical Memory (17) Chapter 2: Political Effects of the Yugoslav Collapse (37) Chapter 3: The Prospect of a European Serbia (59) Chapter 4: Political Attitudes in Serbia (75) Chapter 5: The Cost of Integration (91) Chapter 6: The Serbian Paradox (109) Conclusion (136) Bibliography (157) v Introduction Purpose of the Thesis The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the extent to which historical memory continues to influence politics and political culture within the Republic of Serbia. The origins of this thesis come from a personal interest in nationalism and some of its dangerous political consequences. I have always been fascinated by nationalisms unique ability to inspire and to destroy communities. Positive civic nationalism can inspire patriotism and a sense of common purpose among people from diverse backgrounds. But ethnic nationalism, based on beliefs of superiority, an emphasis on “blood and soil”, separateness, and irredentism renders negative consequences. Minorities often become scapegoats for problems throughout society and become other-ed by those ruling in the majority. Apartheid policies, warfare, and genocide are potential consequences of societies influenced strongly by ideas of ethnic nationalism. The self-destruction of Yugoslavia is used as an example of ethnic nationalism gone awry. By the end of the conflicts almost 140,000 people were dead and millions more found themselves displaced. It was the deadliest conflict in Europe since the end of World War II. The former Yugoslav republics still bear the scars of that tumultuous time. The purpose of this thesis, then, involves adding to the understanding of the Yugoslav collapse and the future of the successor states. The topic of this thesis, Serbia, is particularly fascinating to me for a number of reasons. It is the largest state in the Balkans that has still not joined the European Union. Alongside Montenegro, it has the best chance of joining the EU as the next wave of expansion. At one time, Serbia was the strongest constituent republic of 1 Yugoslavia, and the actions of some Serb political and thought leaders contributed to the demise of Yugoslavia. The scholar Filip Ejdus described a phenomena known as “historical memory” that I find relevant to any discussion of Serbia and the European Union. Ejdus hypothesizes that Serbia as a society has persevered through difficult periods using “time collapse” and “formative eventing.” These topics are addressed in Chapter 1 as crucial to understanding Serbia’s attempts to join the EU after a period of isolation from the European Community as an outsider and a pariah. The purpose of this thesis is to bring a number of concepts into conversation with each other: namely, Serbian historical memory and the role it plays in current EU accession negotiations. Importance of the Thesis “The EU is watching the Balkans come undone” warns Balkan Insight contributor Jasmin Mujanovic, and “Serbia, in particular, is arguably the most problematic of the bunch, with its overt drift towards one-man rule under President Aleksandar Vucic.”1 Today’s international politics are chaotic. The Western liberal order and its institutions find themselves challenged by a rebirth in authoritarianism, populism, and nationalism. Not even the West’s great states are immune to this phenomenon. The United States elected Donald Trump to the Presidency: a man whose ideology more closely resembles European right-wing populism than it does American conservatism. The United Kingdom voted to leave the EU following an aggressive campaign spearheaded by the populist United Kingdom Independence Party and its fiery leader Nigel Farage. France and the Netherlands survived election scares from 1 Mujanovic, Jasmin. “The EU is Watching the Balkans Come Undone.” Balkan Insight. January 24, 2018. https://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/the-eu-is-watching-the-balkans-come-undone-01-23-2018 2 far-right candidates, and Germany’s powerful Chancellor Angela Merkel has seen the far-right reinvigorated in her own country. This thesis focuses narrowly on the politics of Serbia. Like other European nations, Serbia’s politics have taken a turn to the right in recent years following the success of Vucic and his party, the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). Vucic and the SNS are best described as a populist, nationalist party that supports membership in the European Union. In recent elections, the SNS has largely monopolized this as its singular issue, insisting that they are the only party stable enough to guide Serbia through the tumultuous chapter process. Critics say that Vucic and the SNS are creating an illiberal and increasingly authoritarian state in the meantime. This thesis will answer questions that, while constructed in the context of Serbia’s position, are broadly applicable to countries in similar positions, including other Balkan states pursuing membership in the EU. This research is important because it highlights some shortcomings of the EU’s current approach to a troubled state such as Serbia. The research casts doubt on the EU’s ability to be an agent of genuine change in a region as tumultuous as the Balkans. Theoretical Background and Contribution This thesis is informed by elements of constructivist interpretations of nationalism. Filip Ejdus’ Memory of Empire and Entry into International Society: Views from the European Periphery (2017) informs much of the background to this text, and I am heavily indebted to his conception of “Serbian historical memory.” This thesis seeks to further expound Ejdus’ conception of Serbian historical memory, and explain its influence on the EU accession process. This thesis also draws on a definition of nationalism taken from Benedict Anderson’s Imagined Communities 3 The project has some English School considerations. These come in large part from the acceptance of basic English School tenets: the presence of an international society and that the reality of world anarchy. The presence of an international society is important to this work because I frequently point to Serbia’s changing position within the society of states. I believe that this project contributes mightily to the constructivist position on nationalism. This thesis, following Ejdus’ work, argues that the various nationalisms present in the former Yugoslav states, and particularly Serbia, are socially constructed interpretations of important historical events. Serbian nationalism is a derivative of a historical memory. The Serbian intelligentsia of the late 19th and early 20th century crafted this imaginative narrative in order to justify claims to independent statehood separate from the Ottoman Empire. They appealed to the medieval, short-lived Serbian Empire which flourished under the rule of Dusan the Mighty and briefly challenged Byzantine hegemony in the Balkans. Nationalism and historical memory are linked, and closely related. In his work on nationalism, Benedict Anderson writes that the nation is “an imagined political community – and imagined as both inherently limited and sovereign. It is imagined because the members of even the smallest nation will never know most of their fellow-members, meet them, or even hear of them,