The China Analyst 战略 采购 投资 中国分析家 Strategy • Sourcing • Investment A knowledge tool by THE BEIJING AXIS for executives with a China agenda January 2010 China Marches on... FeaturesF FightingFighting forfor Trade:Trade: ChinaChina andand thethe ThreatThreat ofof ProtectionismProt 6 Rare Earths: China’s Contribution to Modern Technology 9 FOCAC: A Win-Win Formula for Sino-African Relations? 12 Regulars Macroeconomic Monitor 16 China Sourcing Strategy 26 China Capital: Inbound and Outbound M&A, Markets and Finance 32 Regional Focus: China-Africa 43 Regional Focus: China-Australia 48 Regional Focus: China-Latin America 52 Regional Focus: China-Russia 56 flickr / mt33 Sixty years ago today, the Chinese people finally won the great victory in the Chinese revolution… Today, a socialist China that is oriented to modernisation, to the world, and to the future is standing toweringly in the eastern world. Looking forward to the future, the prospect of China’s development is infinitely bright. Chinese President Hu Jintao addressing the Chinese people on the 60th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China, 1 October 2009 At the Highest Level China has recovered from the financial crisis-induced slowdown in better shape than ever, with solid pros- pects for 2010. With the stimulus of government investment, China’s economy left the financial crisis in its wake to march on past 8% GDP growth in 2009. Now, poised to become the world’s second-biggest econ- omy, China is readying itself for the challenges of 2010 and the next stage of its relentless rise. t the start of the second decade of nomic recovery in the last year is only half of the story. While Athe 21st century, China’s meteoric China may have had great success in 2009 inciting growth by rise has reached truly historic propor- means of comprehensive stimulus measures, 2010 will be a tions. In a period of immense volatility year when such measures will have to be scaled back, and the in the global economy, China has not sustainability of China’s economic growth will be put to the only held its own, it has emerged with test. This will occur, moreover, in a global environment emerg- flying colours more confident and more ing only in gradual steps from the financial crisis, and a num- relevant than ever before. We can only ber of key policy decisions will likely have to be taken in China be surprised once more at how surpris- during 2010 on exactly when and to what extent to tighten ing China’s relentless rise is turning out monetary policy. In addition, China’s leaders may have to con- to be. front a number of challenging issues with some of its biggest trading partners this year, notably on exchange rate policy and While the world was caught up in the economic turmoil of on trade disagreements. 2009, China shrugged off a slow start to the year and raced ahead, leading the prospects for global recovery as it went What is certain, however, is that China’s remarkable journey along. While the world’s economies contracted, China’s ex- will continue in 2010 as its economy marches ever onward, panded; while world trade decreased by 15% between Q2 and I hope that this publication will contribute to illuminating 2008 and Q2 2009, China gained market share. In short, there some of the complexities inherent in these fascinating and en- seems to be no stopping the inexorable rise of the middle gaging events. kingdom, and observing this historic process at first-hand is a remarkable and humbling experience. China really does live I trust that our readers will enjoy this edition of The China Ana- up to all the hype; in fact, it exceeds it, and its hard to overesti- lyst – and as always we welcome your feedback. mate China’s relevance in the world today. Kobus van der Wath Analyses of the outlines of China’s economy today consistently Founder & Group Managing Director, THE BEIJING AXIS yields a ‘wow’ factor. China ended 2009 with a resurgent rise in & CEO, Bateman Beijing Axis exports, putting it ahead of Germany as the world’s leading [email protected] exporter of manufactured goods for the first time. Data re- leased in January revealed that China had just surpassed the THE CHINA ANALYST January 2010 US to become the world’s largest automobile market, and China’s imports of raw materials have reached record levels in Published by THE BEIJING AXIS Ltd. order to keep pace with rapid economic growth, set to exceed Address 3806 Central Plaza 10% in 2010. Yet the most significant sign of all is that China 18 Harbour Road now seems poised to leapfrog Japan to become the world’s Wanchai second-largest economy, marking a remarkable shift from fifth Hong Kong, PRC to second place in only four years. Tel: +86 (0)10 6440 2106 Fax: +86 (0)10 6440 2672 While developed economies scrambled to limit the damage in www.thebeijingaxis.com 2009, the effectiveness of China’s vigorous investment-led re- Executive Editor Kobus van der Wath sponse to the financial crisis, along with the continued opti- [email protected] mism of its companies and consumers, have been in many Editor Barry van Wyk ways exemplary. As a result, while China started 2009 with [email protected] seemingly little hope of attaining 8% annual GDP growth, it Editorial Board Lilian Luca ended the year in the more familiar position of having to start [email protected] concerning itself again with overheating amid forecasts of Michele Cosani 10%-plus GDP growth for 2010. China’s resurgence in such an [email protected] inauspicious environment has been a fascinating and pleas- Cheryl Tang antly surprising spectacle to behold, and its robust growth [email protected] outlook for the current year bodes well not only for itself, but Javier Cuñat for the whole world, which has depended on China so much [email protected] during the previous year. Advertising Haiwei Huang [email protected] Yet while being without equal in 2009, China’s impressive eco- To subscribe to The China Analyst, please visit www.thebeijingaxis.com. Table of Contents January 2010 6 FEATURES Fighting for Trade: China and the Threat of Protectionism China’s leaders have spoken out strongly about the need to fight protectionism in all its forms, yet what is the real extent of the threat of protectionism facing China? 9 FEATURES Rare Earths: China’s Contribution to Modern Technology A closer look at the history of the rare earths industry in China, the recent controversies surrounding it, and some of the upcoming trends to watch. 12 FEATURES FOCAC: A Win-Win Formula for Sino-African Relations? The fourth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Egypt was a sound platform for Sino-African coop- eration, yet it also illustrated that Africa does not yet have a strategic plan to meet China on middle ground. 16 MACROECONOMY Macroeconomic Monitor: China Marches On China can rightly be proud of its economic performance and effective stimulus measures in 2009. Now, the real challenge of 2010 will be to successfully move beyond stimulus-led growth. 20 NEWS China Business News Highlights The leading business stories in China during the last two quarters of 2009. 22 STATISTICS China Facts & Figures A cross-section of data illustrating growth, transformations and trends in select Chinese economic indicators. 24 STATISTICS China Trade Roundup Recent trends in and the current outlook for China’s trade performance, with a summary of the latest trade data. 26 SOURCING China Sourcing Strategy In this edition we examine the advances of China’s hi-tech industry, the prospects of which are increasingly grabbing the attention of overseas buyers. 30 SOURCING China Sourcing Blog Highlights A summary of recent postings from the China Sourcing Blog, THE BEIJING AXIS’ online sourcing portal. 32 INVESTMENT China Capital: Inbound and Outbound M&A, Markets and Finance China’s emergence has been evident in 2009 from its USD 20.5 billion non-financial ‘shopping spree’ in Q3 2009 to its major cross-border M&A deals, yet it is also facing increasing competition for FDI on some fronts. 38 STRATEGY Mapping China in the Global Economic Recovery A new section by TBA China Strategy Group, this edition illustrating global recovery and China’s performance. 40 STRATEGY CIMC: A Success Story for China Inc. A look at China International Marine Containers’ (CIMC) business strategy, and implications for global players. 42 REGIONS Quarterly Overview: BRIICS A review of the world’s leading developing economies: Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China and South Africa. 43 REGIONS Regional Focus CHINA-AFRICA China-Africa trade and investment analysis, and a closer look at Chinese infrastructure projects in Africa. 48 REGIONS Regional Focus CHINA-AUSTRALIA China-Australia trade and investment analysis, and a review of the role of uranium in the bilateral relationship. 52 REGIONS Regional Focus CHINA-LATIN AMERICA China-Latin America trade and investment analysis, and a focus on the advancing China-Mexico relationship. 56 REGIONS Regional Focus CHINA-RUSSIA China-Russia trade and investment analysis, with an investigation of emerging CNPC-Gazprom energy deals. 61 EVENTS Upcoming Events A selection of upcoming China events, focusing on the mining and engineering sectors. 62 THE BEIJING AXIS THE BEIJING AXIS Careers New employment opportunities at THE BEIJING AXIS. 64 THE BEIJING AXIS THE BEIJING AXIS News Company news for the last two quarters of 2009. 66 THE BEIJING AXIS About THE BEIJING AXIS Company profile and contact information. Fighting for Trade: China and the Threat of Protectionism President Hu Jintao made it clear to the visiting President Obama in November that China is serious about the need to fight protectionism in all its forms.