Issue 1 (3), 2016 ELECTIONS GROUPS POLITICAL RIGHTS ETHNIC SOCIAL violations CONFLICT SYSTEM AUTHORITIES CRIMEAN TATARS Security ANALYSIS MINSK AGREEMENTS DONBAS CRIMEA HUMAN VIOLATIONS VISA LIBERALIZATION SYSTEM Ukraine ENVIRONMENT ENVIRONMENT AGENDA AUTHORITIES • HUMAN RIGHTS HUMAN SECURITY IMPLICATIONS • MINSK AGREEMENTS IMPLEMENTATION • CRIMEAN TATARS, AND ETC 1 Issue 1 (3), 2016 BOARD OF ADVISERS Dr. Dimitar Bechev (Bulgaria, Research fellow, London School of Economics and Social Science) Human Security Dr. Iulian Chifu (Romania, Director of the Conflict Analysis and Early Warning Center) Editors Dr. Igor Koval (Ukraine, Rector of Odessa Dr. Hanna Shelest National University by I.I. Mechnikov) Dr. Mykola Kapitonenko Dr. Sergey Minasyan (Armenia, Deputy Director at the Caucasus Institute) Publisher: Published by NGO “Promotion of Intercultural Stephan Meuser (Germany, Director of the Cooperation” (Ukraine), Representation of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation Centre of International Studies (Ukraine), in Ukraine and Belarus) Representation of the Friedrich Ebert James Nixey (United Kingdom, Head of the with the financial support of the Foundation in Ukraine. Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs) academic/analytical journal in English Dr. Róbert Ondrejcsák (Slovakia, Director of UA: Ukraine Analytica is the first Ukrainian on International Relations, Politics and Center for European and North Atlantic Affairs) Economics. The journal is aimed for experts, diplomats, academics, students interested H.E., Dr. Oleg Shamshur (Ukraine, Ambassador in the international relations and Ukraine in Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine to particular. France) Dr. Stephan De Spiegeleire (The Netherlands, Contacts: Director Defence Transformation at The Hague website: http://ukraine-analytica.org/ Center for Strategic Studies) e-mail: [email protected] Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze (Ukraine, Vice- ukraineanalytica Prime Minister on European and Euroatlantic Twitter: https://twitter.com/UA_Analytica Integration of Ukraine) Dr. Dimitris Triantaphyllou (Greece, Director The views and opinions expressed in of the Center for International and European articles are those of the authors and do not Studies, Kadir Has University (Turkey)) Analytica or its editors and Board of Advisors Dr. Asle Toje (Norway, Research Director at the necessarily reflect the position of UA: Ukraine Norwegian Nobel Institute) 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS WE SHOULD SPEAK ABOUT THE LIBERATION OF THE CRIMEA. 3 Interview with Member of Parliament of Ukraine Mustafa Dzhemilev for UA: Ukraine Analytica MINSK AGREEMENTS IMPLEMENTATION: ART OF IMPOSSIBLE . .7 Hanna Shelest and Dmytro Shulga HUMANITARIAN CRISIS IN UKRAINE AS A FACTOR DESTABILIZING DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN POLICY OF THE STATE . .23 Iuliia Tsyrfa GUIDELINES FOR MANAGING THE CONFLICT IN DONBAS . .30 Mykola Kapitonenko THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF MILITARY ACTIONS IN EASTERN UKRAINE AND THE ANNEXATION OF THE CRIMEA . 38 Svitlana Andrushchenko CRIMEA TODAY: TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS . .47 Natalya Belitser HUMAN RIGHTS MONITORING IN CRIMEA: MISSION IMPOSSIBLE?. .56 Kira Spyrydonova ELECTORAL SECURITY AS AN ELEMENT OF PEACE-BUILDING AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT. .64 Iuliia Serbina DO VISA LIBERALISATION REFORMS HELP MODERNIZING UKRAINE? . 71 Maryana Kuzio and Iryna Sushko 2 CRIMEA TODAY: TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS Natalya Belitser Pylyp Orlyk Institute for Democracy The paper analyses some aspects of the situation in and around the Crimea after the two years of its occupation and illegal annexation by the Russian Federation. The first part addresses the situation regarding human rights, especially those of the most vulnerable Crimean Tatar indigenous people and ethnic Ukrainians. It also covers some other negative trends resulting from changing the status of the territory. The second part provides the analysis of the most important responses of the international community, whereas the third one deals with the national context of the Crimea-related issues. Crimea: current situation under the name of the ‘Anti-Terror Operation’,While the bloodyor ‘ATO’) Donbas for some war time (disguised averted Many international and national human national and international attention rights (HR) organisations are alarmed by from the occupied peninsula, the current the sharply deteriorating HR situation in situation in the Crimea and its perception, the peninsula. The access of monitoring accompanied by heated debates in mainland bodies is generally hindered by the de Ukraine and abroad, have become more facto authorities in the Crimea. topical over the last few months, especially after the beginning of the ‘civic blockade’ Since the beginning of the occupation of the Crimea and other developments that and up to date, only ‘unofficial’ Turkish refocused the attention of the national and delegation attended the Crimea in April international media to the Crimea1. 2015;2 there were also two visits by 1 Protesting Tatars Block Roads to Ukraine from Crimea, ”Transitions Online”, 21 September 2015, [http:// www.tol.org/client/article/24998-protesting-tatars-block-roads-to-ukraine-from-crimea.html?utm_ source=TOL+mailing+list&utm_campaign=4ceb2b299c-TOL_newsletter_21_11_2014&utm_medium=email&utm_ term=0_35d0a711b5-4ceb2b299c-298180421 access: 22 September 2015]; Food Products Blockade Of Crimea: Belated Action Or A Challenge To The Grand Designs Of The Kremlin’s Foreign Policy? “Democratic Initiatives Foundation”, 21 September 2015, [http://dif.org.ua/en/publications/focus_on_ukraine/ prodovolcha-bl-zadumam-kremlja_.htm access: 25 September 2015]; P.Goble, Crimean Tatar Blockade of [http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2015/10/crimean-tatar-blockade-of-russian.html access: 20 OctoberRussian-Occupied 2015]; M. HomelandKovalenko, ‘Doomed Month of to Crimea Fail,’ Shekhovtsov blockade, “UNIAN”, Says, “Window 28 October.2015, on Eurasia”, [http://www.unian.info/ 15 October 2015, economics/1166244-month-of-crimea-blockade.html access: 30 October 2015]. 2 “The Situation of the Crimean Tatars since the Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation”. Report prepared on 27-30 April 2015, 5 June 2015, [http://www.aa.com.tr/documents/AA/haber/crimea_report.pdf access: 10 Juneon the 2015]. basis of information obtained during interviews conducted by an Unofficial Turkish Delegation in Crimea 47 the Council of Europe representatives.3 Regular monitoring by international The recorded cases include forced organisations is not yet possible, whereas disappearances, murders, arrests, activities of the Crimea Field Mission on «unlawful searches, interrogations, HR consisting of Ukrainian and Russian seizures of property, intimidation, human rights groups were stopped in June and entry bans for political leaders 2015 after this NGO had been included by and civic activists, in addition to the Russian Federation into the so-called brutally enforced Russian citizenship ‘patriotic stop-list’.4 Nevertheless, reports based on the information collected from different sources clearly reveal brutal violations of all kind of human rights, Tatar people (the main self-governing body targeting pro-Ukraine-minded people, of Crimean Tatars democratically elected and particularly, members of the two most by the delegates of Kurultay, the National vulnerable ethnic groups – Crimean Tatars Assembly) on charges of being an ‘extremist and ethnic Ukrainians: “Ethnic Ukrainians organisation’.6 This move may lead to a new and Crimean Tatars who espouse pro- wave of repressions targeting over two Ukrainian views on the status of the Crimea or manifest a will to uphold their with the network of local Mejlises. There identity, especially their religious, cultural arethousands also grave members concerns and personsover the affiliated newly or linguistic rights, appear increasingly perpetrated detentions and arrests of vulnerable, and are in urgent need of Crimean Muslims on suspicion of belonging to the Hizb ut-Tahrir – an international foremost by the authorities exercising de organisation recognised as ‘terrorist’ and factoprotection control – anin theobligation Crimea”. borne 5 first and banned in Russia but not in Ukraine. The recorded cases include forced Regarding the general dynamics on the disappearances, murders, arrests, occupied peninsula, it should be noted that unlawful searches, interrogations, seizures the absence of reliable sociological data and of property, intimidation, and entry bans for political leaders and civic activists, exchange of information in both directions in addition to brutally enforced Russian makethe problems an objective with ensuringand unbiased free flows analysis and citizenship. The situation of the Crimean Tatars is further exacerbated by the intention to ban the Mejlis of the Crimean networksan extremely and difficult e-mail communications,task. Mixed and often and conflicting signals are coming via social 3 Kyiv, Moscow and Crimea from 7 to 12 September 2014. Strasbourg, 27 October 2014, [https://wcd.coe.int/ com.instranet.InstraServlet?command=com.instranet.CmdBlobGet&InstranetImage=2624575&SecMode=1&DoReport by Nils Muižnieks, Commissioner for Human Rights of the Council of Europe Following His Mission in - cId=2197556&Usage=2 access: 20 February 2916]. The second mission, led by Swiss diplomat Ambassador Gérard Stoudmann, visited Crimea on 25-31 January 2016 to assess the human rights and rule of law situation. They had over 50 meetings in the peninsula,