ISSN 2070-7010 FAO 638 FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE TECHNICAL PAPER 638 Deep-ocean climate change impacts on habitat, fish and fisheries Deep-ocean climate change impacts on habitat, fish and fisheries This publication presents the outcome of a meeting between the FAO/UNEP ABNJ Deep-seas and Biodiversity project and the Deep Ocean Stewardship Initiative. It focuses on the impacts of climatic changes on demersal fisheries, and the interactions of these fisheries with other species and vulnerable marine ecosystems. Regional fisheries management organizations rely on scientific information to develop advice to managers. In recent decades, climate change has been a focus largely as a unidirectional forcing over decadal timescales. However, changes can occur abruptly when critical thresholds are crossed. Moreover, distribution changes are expected as populations shift from existing to new areas. Hence, there is a need for new monitoring programmes to help scientists understand how these changes affect productivity and biodiversity. costa = 9,4 mm ISBN 978-92-5-131126-4 ISSN 2070-7010 FA 9 789251 311264 CA2528EN/1/09.19 O Cover image: Time of emergence of seafloor climate changes. Figure 7 in Chapter 8 of this Technical Paper. FAO FISHERIES AND Deep-ocean climate change AQUACULTURE TECHNICAL impacts on habitat, fish and PAPER fisheries 638 Edited by Lisa Levin Center for Marine Biodiversity and Conservation and Integrative Oceanography Division Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California San Diego United States of America Maria Baker University of Southampton National Oceanography Centre Southampton United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Anthony Thompson Consultant Fisheries and Aquaculture Department Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Rome Italy FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Rome, 2018 FAO. 2018. Deep-ocean climate change impacts on habitat, fish and fisheries, by Lisa Levin, Maria Baker, and Anthony Thompson (eds). FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper No. 638. Rome, FAO. 186 pp. Licence: CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO. The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of FAO. The designations employed and the presentation of material in the map(s) do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal or constitutional status of any country, territory or sea area, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers. ISBN 978-92-5-131126-4 © FAO, 2018 Some rights reserved. This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 IGO licence (CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/igo/legalcode/legalcode). Under the terms of this licence, this work may be copied, redistributed and adapted for non-commercial purposes, provided that the work is appropriately cited. In any use of this work, there should be no suggestion that FAO endorses any specific organization, products or services. The use of the FAO logo is not permitted. If the work is adapted, then it must be licensed under the same or equivalent Creative Commons licence. If a translation of this work is created, it must include the following disclaimer along with the required citation: “This translation was not created by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). FAO is not responsible for the content or accuracy of this translation. The original [Language] edition shall be the authoritative edition. Disputes arising under the licence that cannot be settled amicably will be resolved by mediation and arbitration as described in Article 8 of the licence except as otherwise provided herein. The applicable mediation rules will be the mediation rules of the World Intellectual Property Organization http://www.wipo.int/amc/en/mediation/rules and any arbitration will be conducted in accordance with the Arbitration Rules of the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL). Third-party materials. Users wishing to reuse material from this work that is attributed to a third party, such as tables, figures or images, are responsible for determining whether permission is needed for that reuse and for obtaining permission from the copyright holder. The risk of claims resulting from infringement of any third-party-owned component in the work rests solely with the user. Sales, rights and licensing. FAO information products are available on the FAO website (www.fao.org/publications) and can be purchased through [email protected]. Requests for commercial use should be submitted via: www.fao.org/contact-us/licence-request. Queries regarding rights and licensing should be submitted to: [email protected]. iii Preparation of this document The FAO/UNEP Project Sustainable Fisheries Management and Biodiversity Conservation of Deep-sea Living Marine Resources and Ecosystems in the Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction (ABNJ Deep-seas and Biodiversity) aims to achieve efficiency and sustainability in the use of deep-sea living marine resources and improve biodiversity conservation in the ABNJ through systematic application of an ecosystem approach. The project, which started in 2015, covers many aspects of deep-sea fisheries and has many partners. One important activity is an “Assessment of potential interactions between DSF and biodiversity” (Activity 2.1.1.3) in support of demonstrating an “Improved application of management tools for mitigation of threats to sustainable DSF and biodiversity” (Outcome 2.1). An understanding of the likely effects of climate change on the deep oceans is fundamental to the management of deep-sea fisheries. The ABNJ Deep-seas and Biodiversity project partnered with the Deep Ocean Stewardship Initiative (DOSI) to bring together their network of experts and extensive experience to generate predictions on physical, chemical and biological oceanography through a range of approaches under various climate change scenarios. A joint planning workshop was held on 26–27 August 2017 at the WHOI Clark Laboratory, Woods Hole, the United States of America, bringing together DOSI experts and representatives from six deep-seas regional fisheries management organizations. This workshop resulted in the generation of an outline for an FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper and selection of authors for each section. The work was developed over the following six months and is presented in this publication, with the authors of each section identified. The overall compilation was undertaken by Lisa Levin, Maria Baker and Anthony Thompson, who are acknowledged as editors. For providing editorial assistance, the work of Joan Alfaro-Lucas, Bai Li, Olivia Pereira, Sarah Seabrook, Teresa Thomas, Emily Young and Luoliang Xu is gratefully acknowledged. The authors also acknowledge and thank Enzo Luchetti for the layout of the publication. iv The Deep Ocean Stewardship Initiative The Deep Ocean Stewardship Initiative (DOSI) is an international, multidisciplinary network that brings together experts in science, technology, policy, law and economics to provide guidance for decision-making on deep-ocean activities within and beyond national jurisdiction. The DOSI Climate Change Working Group, initiated in August 2015, works to centralize climate scenarios and observations to better assess the impact of climate change on deep-sea ecosystems and to address cumulative pressures. Its goals are to facilitate integration of this information in environmental impact assessment, management of deep-sea ecosystems, and in the design of marine protected areas, to identify high-vulnerability areas and foster interdisciplinary approaches to investigate how deep-sea ecosystems interact with climate on a functional basis. The working group prepares brief and publications, raises awareness about climate change among diverse stakeholders, interacts with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, contributes to reporting by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, promotes Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14 (including voluntary commitments), provides guidance to the International Seabed Authority, and contributes to deliberations marine biological diversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction. The DOSI Fisheries Working Group works to promote a precautionary approach to deep-ocean management implemented via international cooperation. Focal areas include recovery from fishing disturbance and interaction with mining, application of vulnerable marine ecosystem (VME) concepts across biomes, identification of trends and knowledge gaps in deep-sea fisheries and stocks, differentiating between natural variability and human impacts, and managing expectations on the benefits of marine protected areas. The group has recently hosted a workshop to draft an environmental impact assessment