Thursday, 13 February 2014 (Global Edition) Asian Daily EPS, TP and Rating changes Top of the pack ... EPS TP (% change) T+1 T+2 Chg Up/Dn Rating Commonwealth Bank 3 2 0 0 U (U) Asia Equity Strategy Sakthi Siva (3) Australia New report: Cyclicals have outperformed defensives YTD. Continue? China Mengniu Dairy (6) (7) 20 25 O (O) PRADA S.p.A. (10) (12) (5) 29 O (O) India IT Services Sector Anantha Narayan (4) Apollo Tyres 8 2 10 22 O (O) Is it too crowded for further performance? Cipla Limited (6) 0 0 1 N (N) Jaiprakash Power Ventures (60) (17) (14) 107 O (O) Page Industries 3 3 2 13 O (O) Asia Technology Sector Keon Han (5) Perusahaan Gas Negara (1) 1 2 31 O (O) New report: LED—entering expansion phase Softbank 0 0 — R (R) UMW Oil & Gas 0 (7) 31 3 N (N) China Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK) – Maintain O Kevin Yin (6) Universal Robina Corp. 1 1 0 18 O (O) 2014 outlook: Should pass through 10% raw milk price inflation; EPS likely to grow 35.9% YoY Huaku Development (3) (1) (5) 32 O (O) Novatek Microelectronics 3 1 3 (18) U (U) CS pic of the day Sinopac Holdings 2 2 3 8 N (N) AIS PCL (4) (7) (4) 29 O (O) Global general lighting and LED lighting market size Siam City Cement 0 (2) (5) 0 U (U) The LED general lighting industry is now shifting from the initial penetration phase to a rapid expansionary TAC PCL 0 0 0 44 O (O) phase. According to our estimates, as the general lighting market reaches US$98 bn by 2016E, LED revenues alone could rise to 46%, or US$45 bn, from US$18 bn in 2002. In the meantime, the addressable market size Connecting clients to corporates should continue to expand quickly. Hong Kong / China US$bn Seoul Semiconductor Co Ltd (046890.KQ) 120 46% 50% Date 19-21 February, Hong Kong 37% Analyst Keon Han 100 40% 80 29% Linc Energy (LINC.SI) 21% 30% 60 Date 24-25 February, Hong Kong 16% 20% Analyst David Hewitt 40 11% 7% 20 10% Singapore 0 0% Seoul Semiconductor Co Ltd (046890.KQ) 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E Date 17-18 February, Singapore Global general lighting market LED lighting revenues LED penetration Analyst Keon Han Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates. Linc Energy (LINC.SI) Date 24 February, Singapore Analyst David Hewitt ... and the whole pack Global US Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd (2343.HK) Global Equity Strategy Andrew Garthwaite (7) Date 03-07 March, US Emerging markets: What is better and what is worse than in 1997? Analyst Timothy Ross Global Equity Strategy Andrew Garthwaite (8) Europe GEM: When is it time to buy? HDFC (HDBK.BO) Regional Date 10-13 February, Europe Asia Equity Strategy Sakthi Siva (3) Analyst Ashish Gupta New report: Cyclicals have outperformed defensives YTD. Continue? Contact [email protected] or Your usual sales Asia Technology Sector Keon Han (5) representative. New report: LED—entering expansion phase Australia [NEW] Ansell Limited (ANN.AX) – Maintain N William Dunlop, CFA (9) Emerging pressure [NEW] Commonwealth Bank Australia (CBA.AX) – Maintain U Jarrod Martin (10) Solid result for an expensive stock China China Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK) – Maintain O Kevin Yin (6) 2014 outlook: Should pass through 10% raw milk price inflation; EPS likely to grow 35.9% YoY China Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK) – Maintain O Kevin Yin (11) Danone pays 15% valuation premium and becomes Mengniu’s second largest shareholder Sungy Mobile Limited (GOMO.OQ) – Maintain O Dick Wei (12) GetJar acquisition: Long-term positive to enhance global app distribution power DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. FOR OTHER IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, visit www.credit-suisse.com/ researchdisclosures or call +1 (877) 291-2683. U.S. Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION TM Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access Thursday, 13 February 2014 Asian Daily Asian indices - performance Hong Kong (% change) Latest 1D 1W 3M YTD PRADA S.p.A. (1913.HK) – Maintain O Karim P. Salamatian, CFA (13) ASX300 5,264 0.0 3.5 (0.2) (0.8) CSEALL 6,084 (0.5) (1.4) 4.6 2.9 Trading update: Capping off a year of deceleration; trend to turn in FY15 Hang Seng 22,228 (0.3) 3.8 (1.0) (4.6) India H-SHARE 9,911 (0.9) 3.9 (3.6) (8.4) [NEW] India Economics: CPI (Jan) & Ind. Prod. (Dec) Robert Prior-Wandesforde (14) JCI 4,494 (0.1) 1.6 4.5 5.1 KLSE 1,821 (0.3) 1.3 2.2 (2.5) Dovish but not dovish enough for the RBI KOSPI 1,934 (0.1) 1.4 (1.5) (3.9) India IT Services Sector Anantha Narayan (4) KSE100 26,677 1.7 (0.7) 14.6 5.6 Is it too crowded for further performance? NIFTY 6,085 0.0 0.8 1.6 (3.5) NIKKEI 14,637 (1.1) 3.2 0.5 (10.2) Apollo Tyres (APLO.BO) – Maintain O Jatin Chawla (15) TOPIX 1,206 (1.1) 3.7 0.1 (7.4) 3Q FY14: Operationally in line, one-offs boost profits PCOMP 6,102 (0.2) 3.2 (3.5) 3.6 Cipla Limited (CIPL.BO) – Maintain N Anubhav Aggarwal (16) RED CHIP 4,293 (0.2) 4.9 (1.9) (5.7) Bumpy road to heaven: Our concerns have started playing out SET 1,313 (0.1) 1.4 (6.5) 1.1 VNINDEX 569 0.8 2.5 14.6 12.7 Jaiprakash Power Ventures Ltd (JAPR.BO) – Maintain O Amish Shah, CFA (17) Thomson Financial Datastream Cashflow gap widens on increasing capex at pipeline projects Asian currencies (vs US$) Page Industries (PAGE.BO) – Maintain O Arnab Mitra (18) (% change) Latest 1D 1W 3M YTD 3Q FY14: Stellar show continues A$ 1.1 (0.1) (0.2) (4.5) 0.3 Bt 32.6 (0.7) 0.7 (3.3) 0.4 Indonesia D 21,110.0 0.0 0.0 (0.1) (0.1) Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS.JK) – Maintain O Ami Tantri (19) JPY 102.1 0.1 0.0 (2.8) 3.1 New report: Looking for upside risk to distribution volume NT$ 30.3 (0.2) 0.0 (2.3) (1.7) P 44.9 (0.5) 0.6 (2.7) (1.2) PT Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk (BDMN.JK) – Maintain U Sanjay Jain (20) PRs 105.2 0.0 0.2 2.2 0.1 4Q13 results in-line: Lower LDR drives margin compression Rp 12,078.0 (0.5) 1.0 (3.9) 0.8 Japan Rs 62.1 (0.2) 0.4 1.9 (0.5) S$ 1.3 (0.1) 0.1 (1.6) (0.3) Softbank (9984.T) – R Hitoshi Hayakawa (21) W 1,064.4 (0.8) 1.4 0.8 (1.4) Transition period; clear slowdown in domestic profits Thomson Financial Datastream Malaysia Global indices (% change) Latest 1D 1W 3M YTD UMW Oil & Gas (UMOG.KL) – Maintain N Annuar Aziz (22) DJIA 15,964 (0.2) 3.4 0.9 (3.7) Buys two jack-up rigs for delivery in 2H 2014 S&P 500 1,819 0.0 3.9 2.1 (1.6) Philippines NASDAQ 4,201 0.2 4.7 5.9 0.6 Universal Robina Corp. (URC.PS) – Maintain O Karim P. Salamatian, CFA (23) SOX 549 0.8 6.0 8.2 2.7 The art of delivery EU-STOX 2,917 0.8 4.1 2.0 (0.1) FTSE 6,675 0.0 3.4 0.7 (1.1) Singapore DAX 9,540 0.6 4.6 5.4 (0.1) Biosensors International Group Ltd. (BIOS.SI) – Maintain N Iris Wang (24) CAC-40 4,306 0.5 4.6 1.5 0.2 NEUTRAL rating for the short-term earnings weakness; but going private could be a viable option 10 YR LB 3 0.3 2.5 2.5 (8.6) 2 YR LB 0 (1.2) 4.8 12.4 (11.8) South Korea US$:E 1.36 0.2 0.2 0.9 (0.9) [NEW] Korea Economics Christiaan Tuntono (25) US$:Y 102.12 0.4 0.0 (2.8) 3.1 The BoK remains on hold in February, but expresses some concerns over EM growth and domestic BRENT 108.19 (0.2) 1.0 1.2 (2.4) demand GOLD 1,289.7 (0.1) 2.5 0.6 7.0 VIX 14.3 (1.4) (28.3) 14.2 4.2 Taiwan Thomson Financial Datastream Asia Semiconductor Sector Randy Abrams, CFA (26) MSCI Asian indices – valuation & perf. Taiwan January Sales: Sales led by TSMC, Vanguard, Mediatek, ASE and SPIL EPS grth. P/E (x) Performance MSCI Index 13E 14E 13E 14E 1D 1M YTD Huaku Development Co Ltd (2548.TW) – Maintain O Jeremy Chen (27) Asia F X Japan 12 12 11.0 9.8 0.0 (1.9) (4.0) Building on fundamentals; reiterate OUTPERFORM Asia Pac F X J. 12 11 11.8 10.6 0.0 (1.3) (2.9) Novatek Microelectronics Corp Ltd (3034.TW) – Maintain U Jerry Su (28) Australia (3) 7 15.8 14.8 1.1 0.8 0.2 4Q13 miss, margin remains a concern in 2014 China 9 12 8.5 7.6 1.2 (1.5) (5.3) Hong Kong 9 11 14.5 13.1 1.5 (2.7) (3.6) Sinopac Holdings (2890.TW) – Maintain N Chung Hsu, CFA (29) India 18 15 13.5 11.8 0.5 (2.5) (3.9) Moderate 4Q13 profit slowdown on higher bank provisions Indonesia 11 14 13.6 12.0 1.2 6.8 7.3 Thailand Korea 19 11 8.9 8.0 1.0 (0.2) (5.5) Malaysia 7 10 15.6 14.3 0.4 (2.0) (3.9) Advanced Info Service PCL (ADVA.BK) – Maintain O Colin McCallum, CA (30) Pakistan 22 16 8.7 7.5 2.0 (2.2) 1.3 Regulatory benefits are being retained, and so Bt40 bn in capex worth spending Philippines 8 15 17.8 15.5 0.7 4.1 2.8 Siam City Cement (SCCC.BK) – Maintain U Paworamon (Poom) Suvarnatemee, CFA (31) Singapore 8 10 13.1 11.9 0.1 (3.7) (5.3) Medium-term risk remains high Sri Lanka 10 11 14.3 12.9 1.5 3.5 1.0 Taiwan 11 11 11.2 10.1 2.0 5.0 1.8 Total Access Communication PCL (DTAC.BK) – Maintain O Colin McCallum, CA (32) Japan 35 74 23.7 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 EBITDA rises 11.2% QoQ and 17.7% YoY as regulatory benefits are retained * IBES estimates O=Outperform N=Neutral U=Underperform R=Restricted OW= Overweight MW=Market Weight UW=Underweight Research mailing options To make any changes to your existing research mailing details, please e-mail us directly at [email protected] Sales Contact Hong Kong 852 2101 7211 Singapore 65 6212 3052 London 44 20 7888 4367 New York 1 212 325 5955 Boston 1 617 556 5634 - 2 of 35 - Thursday, 13 February 2014 Asian Daily Top of the pack ..