INTERNATIONAL POLICY ANALYSIS Parliamentary Elections in Jordan ACompetitionofMixedMessages ANJA WEHLER-SCHOECK September2016 Inthemidstofcontinuousregionalturmoil,Jordanianswillbeheadingtothepoll- ingstationsnextweekon20Septembertocasttheirvotesforthe18thnational Parliament. Anewelectionlawbasedonopenproportionallistsatthedistrictlevelseesanin- creasedroleforpoliticalparties.Yet,afteralmostthreedecadesofanelectoralsys- temexplicitlydesignedtoweakentheirrole,itcomesaslittlesurprisethatparties arestillstrugglingtopresentthemselvesasstrongactors. Intherun-uptotheelections,candidateshaveformedalliancesacrossthepolitical spectrumbutfewlistsfeatureprogrammaticagendasorevenaclearpoliticalvision. Havingboycottedthepasttwoelections,theMuslimBrotherhoodhasdecidedto competeagainthisyear.AsaresultofthenumerouscriseswithintheBrotherhood inthepastfewyears,avarietyofIslamistgroupsarecompetingagainsteachother. Severalpollsshowhighfrustrationamongcitizenswithregardtotheroleandper- formanceofParliamentaswellasasignificantdegreeofindifferencetowardsthe elections,makingalowvoterturnoutverylikely. ANJA WEHLER-SCHOECK | ParliAmentary Elections iN Jordan WhenJordanianswillbeheadingtothepollingstations There is a considerable trust gap between the elected nextweekon20Septembertocasttheirvotesforthe representativesandtheirconstituents.»Whenyouhave 18thnationalParliament,itwillbeunderyetanothernew electionlawsthatarestructurallydesignedtoproduce electionlaw.Itistheninthpieceofelectorallegislation weak governments, and when the executive branch since elections were reintroduced in 1989; since then, regularlyinterferesintheworkofparliament,itisnatural every parliamentary election in Jordan has been held thatpeoplewilllosetrust,«explainsveteranstatesman underanewlaw. MarwanMuasher.4Manyconstituentsfeelthatelection pledgesusuallyremainemptyslogansandquestionthe GovernmentSpokespersonMohammadMomaniexpects independenceoftheirdeputies.CaseslikeParliament’s theupcomingparliamentaryelections»tobehistoricby same-day»U-turn«regardingtheIsraeliinvestmentban allmeans«.1Yet,itremainstobeseenhowmanyciti- fuelthesesuspicions.Insaidincidentdatingbackto22 zenssharethisoptimismandwillchoosetoparticipate May 2016, Parliament voted to exclude Israel from its intheelections.Severalpollshaveshownshockinglylittle NationalInvestmentFund;duringtheeveningsessionof intentionamongthepopulationtocasttheirballots.Au- thesameday,Parliamentsuddenlyreverseditsprevious thoritieswillbenervouslywatching,withvoterturnout decisionwithseveralvocalsupportersoftheJordanian beingseenasacentralindicatorofthe»success«ofthe anti-normalization movement voting in favor of trade electionandavitalpieceofJordan’sinternationalimage. withIsrael.5 KhaledKalaldeh,ChairmanoftheIndependentElection Commission(IEC),pre-emptivelydeclaredtheIEC»not Against this backdrop, it is hardly surprising that the responsibleforencouragingpeopletovote«,citingre- run-up to the elections has shown just how prevalent gionalwarsandconflictsasfactorsdiscouragingcitizens voterfrustrationisinJordan.Anopinionpollconducted fromparticipatingintheelections.2 bytheJordanianNGOPhenixCenterinAugustshowed thatonly38.9%ofthesampleintendedtovote,while 42.1%plannednottoparticipateand19%werestill VoterFrustration undecided.6Otherpollsconfirmedsimilarnumbers. Whilethemanyregionalcrisescertainlydotaketheirtoll JordanianbloggerNaseemTarawnehadmits:»Yes,Parlia- ontheKingdom,theprimereasonforvoterabstention menthasbeenasourceofcomicreliefovertheyears,but mustbeseenelsewhere.Althoughthelegislativeroleof behindeverycringe-worthyactthatrangesfromshout- theParliamentisclearlystatedintheJordanianconstitu- ingmatchestotheoccasionaldrawingofshoesorpistols tionandKingAbdullahIIevenenvisioneda»transitionto intheheatofintenseexchanges,publicconfidenceinthe [a]trueparliamentarygovernment«inhisDiscussionPa- LowerHousehasdwindled,andwithit,overallfaithin pers3,therealityisstillsorelylacking.Inthecontextofthe thelegislativebranch.«7Thistendencyisconfirmedina currentpoliticalsystem,Parliamentisaweakinstitution. 2016studybytheInternationalRepublicanInstitute(IRI) Thisisfurtherexacerbatedbythefactthatitiscomposed where 72% of the sample responded that the impact by individual members not factions, thus lacking the ofthepreviousParliament(17thlegislature)hadmoved capacitytoexerciseitstaskasmonitoringgovernment Jordaneitherina»worsedirection«orina»muchworse performance.ManyJordaniansviewtheirParliamentnot direction«.8 87% felt that this Parliament had not ac- asadecision-makingbodybutasaninstitution,which complishedanythingitshouldbecommendedfor.That merely »rubber stamps« government decisions. Adnan 4. Abdul-Wahab Kayyali: »A Statesman Speaks«. Venture, Issue 126. Sawaeer, a multi-term Member of Parliament, openly September2016. admittedatapubliceventinJulythat»thereisnorole 5. »Jordan: What’s behind parliament’s U-turn on Israeli investments ban?«The New Arab,24May2016.www.alaraby.co.uk forParliamentinshapingpolicies«. »Amidscandalandsuspicion,Jordan’sParliamentvotesforIsraeliinvest- ment.«albawaba,24May2016.www.albawaba.com 6. PhenixCenterforEconomicandInformaticsStudies:»PollResults: TheAttitudesofJordanianCitizensTowardsParticipationintheUpcom- 1. MohammadGhazal:»Gov’treadywithby-lawondistributionofcon- ing2016ParliamentaryElections.«21August2016.www.phenixcenter. stituencies.«The Jordan Times,29March2016. net. 2. »Boostingvoterparticipation›notIEC’srole‹—Kalaldeh.«The Jordan 7. NaseemTarawneh:»Jordan’sBallotBox:EmptySlogan’sOrChance Times,3September2016. forReform?«The New Arab,www.alaraby.co.uk,8September2016. 3. H.M. Abdullah II ibn Al Hussein: »Making Our Democratic System 8. InternationalRepublicInstitute(IRI):»SurveyofJordanPublicOpinion. WorkforAllJordanians.«16January2013.http://kingabdullah.jo NationalPoll#13.«April19-24,2016.www.iri.org 1 ANJA WEHLER-SCHOECK | ParliAmentary Elections iN Jordan beingsaid,inacountrywithclearredlinesforcriticism, thevotingageofpreviously18years;acitizencannow Parliamentcanalsoserveasahandyscapegoatforvoic- voteintheelectionsifhe/sheis17yearsoldatleast90 inggeneraldiscontent,whichcannotbedirectedatthe dayspriortoElectionDay.Additionally,intheupcoming actualdecision-makers.9 elections, it is no longer necessary as in 2013 to have beenpre-registeredasavoter;allcitizenscanvoteusing SaidsurveybythePhenixCenterfoundthatthemost their national ID cards. So, all other factors aside, the prevalent motives for boycotting the elections were relativevoterturnoutwillalmostcertainlybelowerthan dissatisfaction with Parliament’s performance (30.5%), in 2013 given the increase in the absolute number of doubtsastotheintegrityoftheelections(25.7%)and eligiblevoters. rejectionofthecompetingcandidates(23.6%).10Unsur- prisinglyforacountrylikeJordan,wheretribalandfamily Unfortunately, the recent electoral reform did not in- ties run deep and so-called »service Parliamentarians« cludetheintroductionofabsenteeballots.Thismeans stillcompensateforawidelylackingefficientmunicipal thatcitizensunabletoleavethehouse,thoseotherwise servicestructure,alargeshareofthosesettovotenamed occupiedorabsentfromtheirconstituenciesonElection tribal and family relations (32.6%) or personal gain DayaswellastheconsiderablenumbersofJordanians (10.3%)asmotives.Yet,27.2%claimedasenseofcivic livingabroadwillbeexcludedfromcastingtheirvotes. dutyand24.8%sharingparticularcandidates’views. Whilenopoliticalpartyhascalledforaboycottofthe TheNewElectionLaw elections, a number of citizens have been openly en- couragingit,withonegroupevenforminga»National Until2016,Jordanhadfiguredamongthethreecoun- CoalitionforBoycottingtheElections«.TheIEChasbeen tries worldwide using the rare Single Non-Transferable urgingthemediatochallengethe»cultureofboycott« Vote(SNTV)system,morecommonlyreferredtoas»one andhascalledonJordanianstorespectthe»valuesof man,onevote«.In2012,thissystemwasamendedto goodcitizenshipanddemocracy«.11Inavideostatement includeasecondvoteforanationalclosedproportional ontheIECFacebookpage,ChairmanKhaledKalaldeh list, through which 27 out of 150 seats in Parliament encouragesyoungvoterstoexpresstheirdissatisfaction werechoseninthe2013elections.Theelectionlawthen withanemptyballotbuttoparticipateintheelections underwentacompleteoverhaulwiththeabolishmentof tomaketheirvoicesheard:»Ifyoudonotfindalistthat boththeSNTVsystemandthenationallists,andthein- represents you, cast an empty ballot, because you de- troductionofanopenproportionallistsystematthedis- servedemocracy,evenifnobodydeservesyourvote.«12 trictlevel.Inararemaneuver,thesitting17thParliament TheeffortsoftheIECinthisregardgivereasontobelieve hadalsovotedtoreducethenumberofparliamentary thatthenumberofinvalidballotswillbemadetranspar- seatsfrom150to130forthecominglegislature. enttothepublicattheseelectionsandwillbetakenasa seriousindicatorofelectoralpreferences. Underthenewsystem,candidatesmustregisterthrough listsonthedistrictlevelwithaminimumofthreemem- IthastobehandedtotheJordaniangovernmentthat bersoneachlist.Thenumberofcandidatesonthelist they did not go for the cheap shots in terms of voter cannotexceedthatoftheavailableseatsintherespective turnout.Quitethecontrary.Thenumberofeligiblevot- districtandisgenerallytoppedoffatten.Voterscancast erswasincreasedbyapproximately240,000byreducing theirvoteforthewholelistassuch,fordifferentcandi- datesononelistorforallcandidatesfromthechosen 9. NaseemTarawneh:»TheCautiousOptimist’sGuidetoParliamentary list.Throughtheopenlistsystem,thereisthuscompeti- Elections.Jordan’sBiggestShowReturnsbutTrustIssuesRemain.«27July 2016.www.black-iris.com tionbetweenthedifferentlistsaswellasbetweenthe