First published 2011 by Transaction Publishers Published 2017 by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN 711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017, USA Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business Copyright © 2011 by Taylor & Francis. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. Notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. Library of Congress Catalog Number: 2013009660 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Geyer, Georgie Anne, 1935- Predicting the unthinkable, anticipating the impossible : from the fall of the Berlin Wall to America in the new century / Georgie Anne Geyer, with a new preface by the author. pages cm “New material this edition copyright (c) 2013 by Transaction Publishers, New Brunswick, New Jersey. Originally published in 2011 by Transaction Publishers.” ISBN 978-1-4128-5278-4 1. World politics--1989- 2. United States--Foreign relations--1989- I. Title. D860.G524 2013 909.82’9--dc23 2013009660 ISBN 13: 978-1-4128-5278-4 (pbk) ISBN 13: 978-1-4128-1487-4 (hbk) Contents Preface to the Paperback Edition by Georgie Anne Geyer xi Preface by Irving Louis Horowitz xvii Acknowledgments xxiii Part I: The Expectant Decade 1 East Germany’s Not at All like Its Image, Ron 3 Berlin Wall is Just One Example of How the World is Split in Two 4 Soviet Empire Begins to Crack 6 Groping toward Pluralism 8 Iranian Children Herded to Death 11 We Still Can’t Go Home Again 13 Reagan Reforms: His View of Soviets 14 Part II: The Conceit of Innocence 19 Poland’s Winning Ways with Freedom 21 Policymakers Ignore New Trends in Terrorism 23 Yugoslavia: Pulled Back to the Past and Ahead to the Future 25 Sick with History, Kosovo Awaits Serbs’ Final Blow 27 The Conceit of Innocence II 29 Who Killed Sir Michael Rose? 31 U.N. and West Should Quit Playing “Dead Dog” in Bosnia 33 UN Secretary-General Believes in Negotiating 36 The United Nations and Neutralism 38 Russians Slowly Learning New Way 40 Unclear Indicator of the New Russia 42 After 1,000 Years of Absolute Faiths, Russia Has None 44 Russia Needed a New Identity, Not “Shock Therapy” 47 Kazakh Leader Grapples with Change 49 Predicting the Unthinkable, Anticipating the Impossible In Ironic Reversal, Little Finland Now Influencing Giant Neighbor Russia 52 Little Norway Goes Where Superpowers Cannot Trend 55 Holland’s “Managed Morality” 57 The Cold War is Over but the Quest for Meaning Continues 59 Should U.S. Troops Have Gone on to Baghdad? 61 Seeking to Change Society by Force? 63 End of Cold War Released Violent, Separatist Feelings 66 Many Groups Are Aiding the Breakdown of Nation-States 68 Sadat’s Vision Made a Big Difference 70 Lessons from the Death of a Cowboy 73 Post-Cold War World Requires Institution-Building 75 Foreign Policy Differences of Utopians and Realists 78 Comandante Chavez Wants to Save Venezuela from “Abyss” 80 Marine Corps Experience is Applicable Elsewhere 82 What the Listeners Might Hear in Havana 85 Democracy is Process, Not Instant Coffee 87 Shanghai: Full of Life, But Going Where? 89 Traditional Idea of Truth vs. Designer Truths 92 Our Foreign Policy toward China is Delusional 94 Part III: Terrorism an Era unto Itself 97 Gov. George W. Bush is a Reasonable Reformer 99 Bush’s Faith-Based Program is Far Superior to Welfare State 101 Putin Arrives 104 Gulf War Did Not Change Saddam Hussein’s Priorities 107 Religious-Secular Tensions Divide Israel 109 Clinton Foreign Policy is Devoid of Principle 111 U.S. Must Preserve What is Left of Our Civic Ideals 114 Internet Globalizers Can’t Erase Cultural Differences 116 In India the South Points the Way for the North 119 Information without Context or Knowledge is Meaningless 121 Afghani Radicals Foment Terror in Far-Flung Places 123 America is Losing Its Sense of Self 126 Haiti: Political Terrorism Hangs over Elections 129 Part IV: Between Neutralism and Justice 133 “Cultural Intelligence” was Sacrificed on the Economic Altar 135 vi Contents Long-Term U.S. Goal: Collapse of Terrorist Network 138 Winds of Change Keep Blowing over Bush White House 140 Rootless Young Men May Become Civilization’s Nemesis 143 Palestinians Despair as Hope for Peace and Land Disappear 145 Afghan Leader Abdul Haq was Rare Voice of Reason in Mayhem 148 Renewed Influence of Nation-States Marks Geopolitical Analysis 151 Journalism for the Sheer Joy of It 153 Pearl’s Death Marks Cold New Reality for Foreign Correspondents 156 Hawks’ Eyes Look Longingly at War against Hussein 159 With Queen Mother’s Passing, Mothering Loses Great Exemplar 162 U.S. No Longer Plays by the Rules It Helped to Invent 164 Bush Sr. Sends Not-So-Subtle Message with Award to Kennedy 167 Weapons of Mass Deception were Saddam’s Greatest Defense 169 Kuwait’s Historical Example Holds Lessons about Iraq 171 New Chapters Open in the Mystery behind the War 174 Earlier Examination Identified Disintegrating Nation-States 176 Remembering Yitzhak Rabin: A Legacy of Peace Derailed 179 “Mr. Rockefeller’s Roads” Reveal Nature, Not Despoil It 181 America’s Abbreviated Experiment with Empire-Building 184 “I Thought We Were Different” 187 Oman’s Development an Instructive Model for Middle East 189 Military Explores Traditional Power Centers in Chaotic Iraq 192 European Union Continues toward Role as World Player 195 Unity, Authority Were Missing Links in New Orleans Disaster 198 The Dark Heart of Dick Cheney 200 Peace is Not Fostered by Lip Service but by Patient Labor 203 Referendum in Uganda Offers Lesson for Emerging Democracies 205 China’s Star is Rising as a World Superpower 209 Cohesive Future Depends on Comprehensive Newspaper Reporting 211 Deconstructing Don Rumsfeld 214 vii Predicting the Unthinkable, Anticipating the Impossible Baker on Cleanup Crew after “Sonny’s” Big Adventure 217 Without Newspapers, Americans Can’t Understand the World 219 Egyptian Cat Scholarship was Purely a Labor of Love 222 In Wake of Iraq Miscalculations, Talk Turns to Iran 225 Private Security Contractors Create Very Public Problems 227 Boris Yeltsin Leaves Legacy of Contradiction 230 Son Solves Mystery of Father’s Death in Soviet Gulag 233 Political, Not Religious, Issues are Motivating Terrorists 235 War Costs Endanger Our Future Security 238 Questions Remain in the Fall of Emperor Spitzer 240 Zbigniew Brzezinski: Master of Foreign Policy 243 Questions of War 246 Market “Magic” Relied on Greed 248 U.S. Can’t Afford More Mistakes 250 America Has Lost Sight of Its Original Work Ethic 253 Part V: The Present as Future 257 The Original Community Organizer 259 Counterinsurgency Doesn’t Come Naturally to U.S. Forces 262 Crisis Mode Dominates International Conference 264 One Woman’s Journey through the Health Care Jungle 267 Obama Strategy to End War by Making War 269 Next Stop: Yemen 272 Is There a New Revolution Under Way in Iran? 274 Afghan Morass 277 Twentieth Anniversary of the Berlin Wall 280 The Fault is in Ourselves 283 Iraq War Still a Mistake 285 Price of Peace in Europe 288 Google in China 290 How did We Ever Get to be So Incivil and Vulgar? Without Even Trying? 292 Radical Young Terrorists aren’t So Mysterious After All 295 Part VI: Out of Time but in Space 299 Chicago: Life is a Matter of “Becoming” 301 viii Contents Vietnam. Then Haiti Today 303 Pacifist Policies, Appeasing Terrorism 305 “Axis of Annoyance” Prevails in Latin America 308 War on the Southern Border 311 Spreading the Developmental “Gospel” 313 African Illusions and Realities 316 Germany’s Isolation Collapsed with The Wall 318 A Trip to Polish Roots 321 Mothers: The Swing Generation for Women’s Rights 325 New South Africa Shines at the World Cup 328 America’s Little Wars are Draining Us in a Big Way 331 Summer Home: The Past is No More 333 Lessons from the Chicago South Side 335 A Graduate Comes Full Circle 338 Index 341 ix Preface to the Paperback Edition So many acute observers of the press have told me recently that I lived in the “golden age” of foreign correspondence that I have now come to believe it. In fact, it was roughly the entire twentieth century that constituted that gilded era, although my years work- ing overseas from 1964 to 2006 were surely a golden age within the golden age. In the 1920s, foreign correspondents were such rare and sexy birds that some of them spoke at Carnegie Hall on their experiences in the strange corners of the world—after all, in that age, very, very few people had the capacity to travel around the world, meet inter- national leaders, and pry into the psyches of countries at war and at peace. Throughout this period, the very mention of the term “foreign correspondent” was enough to evoke oohs and aahs from homebound and ocean-bound Americans. And, why not? We were such a small group of crazy para-juveniles, romantic and fearless, dreaming modestly only of eternal praise and recognition! But what always amazed me was that this small group of apparently normal people, say, maybe twenty or thirty on one big story, were bringing home virtually all the information that our fellow citizens received. Their information passed through to the diplomats, the businessmen, and the military officers and actually helped create diplomatic, economic, and military policy across the world.